NATO Archives - SOF News

NATO’s SFA Operator Profile

SOF News — Sun, 24 Apr 2022 05:00:00 +0000

A new publication, SFA Operator Profile, by NATO offers a information about advisors, mentors, and trainers in the security force assistance environment. The report is published by the NATO Security Force Assistance Centre of Excellence (NATO SFA COE) located in Italy.

The document identifies lessons learned and best practices to enhance NATO HQs and NATO nations’ abilities to select, recruit, train, and deploy personnel in security force assistance operations. The project focuses on the job descriptions as well as the human and professional requirements necessary in a strategic, operational, and tactical environment. The publication aims to be a tool in understanding the complexity of the SFA field and the pivotal role of the human dimension in the SFA environment.

The recommendations in the report will assist in elaborating the profile and job description of the SFA operator. The report examines three broad topics:

Address the differences and peculiarities of the SFA functions of advising, mentoring, and training
Outline considerations concerning SFA training
Focus on the analysis of behavioral aspects and core competencies of the SFA population

There are two main chapters in the report – “Research Outcomes Analysis” and “Psychological Profile”. The SFA Operator Profile has a conclusion and recommendation for each chapter. The end of the report includes a list of acronyms and biographies of the authors. This is a good read for those who are training officers and NCOs to become advisors, mentors, or trainers as well as military personnel who are or will be serving in those roles.

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The NATO SFA COE is a multinational entity accredited by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a “Centre of Excellence”. It is sponsored by the countries of Italy, Albania, and Slovenia. The Centre is recognized as a hub of reference in the Security Force Assistance field by NATO and other countries around the world.

SFA Operator Profile, NATO SFA COE, April 2022, PDF, 62 pages.
https://www.nsfacoe.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SFA-OPERATOR-PROFILE.pdf

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Reference: Watch a two-minute long video that describes the intent of the report cited above. “SFA Operator Profile Analysis Report”, NATO SFA COE, April 12, 2022, YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVhazEQ8d_8

Ukraine War Update – March 22, 2022

SOF News — Tue, 22 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO. Additional topics include refugees, internally displaced personnel, humanitarian efforts, cyber, and information operations.

Image / Photo: Ukraine APC, courtesy of Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.

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Russian Campaign Update. The shelling of Ukrainian cities by Russian artillery, missiles, and air strikes continues, taking a toll on civilians and civilian infrastructure. Major movement on the ground by Russian forces has been limited. Some cities are experiencing probing attacks and there are reports that Russian SOF have entered parts of the cities and engaging in firefights. Russia has launched over 1,100 missiles against targets in Ukraine, possibly expending about 1/2 of their inventory. The Russians have taken only a few population centers – the largest being Kherson in the south. Ukraine says over 15,000 Russians have been killed in the war, while many Western officials say the numbers are around 9,000.

The Russians appear to have shifted its strategy from capturing major cities to attempting to encircle them and force them to surrender with indiscriminate shelling. Russian offensive action has been limited due to problems with command and control, lack of fuel, logistics difficulties, communications difficulties, and a stiff Ukrainian defense. Thus far, the Russians have captured three sizeable cities – Melitopol, Berdyans’k, and Kherson. They are still trying to capture Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Kyiv. There are indications that the Ukrainians may go on the offensive to recapture Kherson.

Ukrainian Defense. The Russians have been frustrated by the stiff opposition put up by the Ukraine military. Progress over the past few weeks has been very slow for the Russians and the continued dogged defense of the large cities by the Ukrainians have been costly. Ukrainian air defense has been very nimble and on the move to avoid being neutralized by air attacks and missile strikes.

Fight for the Skies. It is believed that the Russian Air Force is facing inventory problems with their precision-guided munitions. In addition, some of their munitions are failing to launch, not hitting targets, or failing to explode on contact. Some reports indicate that the Russians are conducting more air sorties now than in days past – perhaps as many as 300 sorties a day conducting air to ground attacks. Many Russian aircraft do not leave Russian or Belarusian airspace. When they do overfly Ukraine it isn’t for very long or far into Ukrainian airspace. Although there have been reports that Slovakia would send some of their S-300 missile systems to Ukraine, it seems it hasn’t happened yet. Germany has sent one of its Patriot batteries to Slovakia to enhance their air defense capability.

Drone Warfare. Ukrainian drones have been having great success against Russian targets. Drones as simple as the cheap, commercial ones available online to more complex ones like the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 are taking a toll on the Russians. One of the more favorite targets are Russian convoys that are parked along the side of a road at night. The Ukrainian drone unit, Aerorozvidka, was started in 2014 by model plane enthusiasts. The unit is now flying up to 300 missions a day. “We strike at night, when the Russians sleep – How Ukraine is stalking Russian armor with drones”, Task & Purpose, March 21, 2022.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. It is doubtful if it will be employed unless the Russians make further ground advances toward Odessa along the Black Sea coast. The intentions of Russian amphibious warships in the Black Sea are unclear. This force will likely continue to pose a threat requiring the Ukrainians to keep forces available to counter it – which precludes those ground units from fighting at the frontlines. This Russian fleet is conducting shelling and missile attacks against Ukrainian targets along the Black Sea coast and into the interior of Ukraine. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. The Russian offensive against Kyiv has been stalled. The city is undergoing shelling from artillery, missiles, and rockets. There are limited Ukrainian counterattacks taking place in the Kyiv area – with the Ukrainians retaking a key suburb of Kyiv. The Russians are being held at a distance from the city center – 15 klics NW of Kyiv and 30 klics east of Kyiv. Indications are that the Russians are reinforcing their defensive positions.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The Ukrainians are holding out in this city and it has not yet been encircled. Refugees have been leaving whenever the humanitarian corridors open up.

Mariupol. Most of the population of Mariupol spend their time in shelters and basements seeking safety from the constant shelling by the Russians. When they do venture out it is in search for water and food. The city is in ruin with entire neighborhoods devastated. Between 18 and 20 March more than 13,000 people have been evacuated from the city. Russia has been accused of forcibly removing thousands of Ukrainians from Mariupol to camps in Russia after having their cell phones screened and Ukrainian passports confiscated. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. Mariupol is a key port city on the Sea of Azov and a link between the Russian-occupied Donbass area and Russian-occupied Crimea. “Ukraine conflict: Russia trying to starve Mariupol into surrender”, BBC News, March 20, 2022. The Russians demanded the surrender of the city but Ukraine rejected those demands. (Military Times, Mar 21, 2022).

Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. The Russian attack on this major city has been stalled.

Negotiations. The Ukrainian president says direct talks with Vladimir Putin are necessary to understand Moscow’s position on ending the war. Putin is unlikely to meet with Zelensky. (Aljazeera, Mar 21, 2022).

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War. The ISW provides a very detailed tactical overview of the situation.

General Information

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. As of March 22, over 3,400,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). Over 6.5 million people have been internally displaced within Ukraine. On Monday (Mar 21) over 8,000 people were evacuated from cities through humanitarian corridors. 3,000 of them came from the embattled city of Mariupol. Read the latest report published on Monday (Mar 21) by OCHA Ukraine on the humanitarian impact of the war.

Poland Steps Up to Assist Refugees – But There Will be Some Issues. Most of the refugees have gone to Poland as part of the largest migration crisis in post-war European history. Two million people have fled Ukraine for Poland, mostly women and children. The refugees can stay in Poland for up to 18 months and the healthcare system has opened up to them. However, Poland is poorly equipped to handle this many people over the long-term. Western governments will need to find a way to help Poland financially and logistically. Read more in “Poland’s refugee crisis in waiting”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, ASPI, March 22, 2022.

Meetings in Europe. President Biden and Secretary of Defense Austin will be meeting with European leaders and NATO officials this week . . . the topic, of course, is the Ukraine War. Part of the visit will entail a trip to Poland. One topic that could come up is the Polish proposal of a NATO ‘peacekeeping force’ to enter Ukraine.

Russia’s ‘Kinzhal’. Much has been made of Russia’s ‘hypersonic’ missile but most defense experts say there is not much special or particularly exciting about it. The Kinzhal is an air launched version of the Iskander-M. Launched from an aircraft gives it added range. Currently, within the context of the Ukraine War, it seems to be more of a propaganda tool than anything else. Still dangerous, but not the ‘ultimate weapon’ everyone initially pronounced it to be. Read more in “US can’t verify Russian hypersonic missile claim, official says”, The Hill, March 21, 2022.

Cyber and Information Operations

Banning Wikipedia? There are rumors that Russia’s censorship office may block Russian Wikipedia. Some Russians are making local copies of Wikipedia before it gets blocked. The 29-gigabyte file that contains the Russian-language Wikipedia was downloaded over 100,000 times during the first half of March. This was a 4,000 per cent increase compared with the first half of January. “Russians Are Racing to Download Wikipedia Before It Gets Banned”, Slate, March 21, 2022.

Russia’s Cyber Attack on Ukraine. Before Russia moved its troops and tanks into Ukraine it conducted a wave of cyberattacks. Websites were hamstrung, malware infected computers, denial of service attacks took place, and communications were hampered. But the widespread digital devastation of critical infrastructure did not happen. No country has weaponized its cyber capabilities as maliciously as Russia. But in the current conflict this capability seems to have not been used to its fullest extent. Are the Russians holding back? Read more in “Blue, yellow and gray zone: the cyber factor in Ukraine”, C4ISRNET, March 14, 2022.

World Response

U.S. Held Soviet Weapons Going to Ukraine? The United States has captured, snatched, or otherwise acquired various Russian-made air defense systems over the years. They could be heading to Ukraine. Some of these systems have been in storage at the U.S. Army’s Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama. Read more in “Secretive American Stocks of Soviet Air Defense Systems Are Headed to Ukraine”, The WarZone, March 21, 2022.

Hungary – a Balancing Act? Although the international response to the Russian aggression towards Ukraine has been strong there are still some countries that are less than strident in their condemnation of Russia. The UAE, India, and China are among those. So is Hungary. It opposes a no-fly zone over Ukraine and an embargo on Russian energy.

Saudi Arabia. The United States is finding out a little more about its friendship with the Saudis. Pleas by the U.S. for this country to increase its oil production to help ease the spike in world oil prices has fallen on deaf ears. In fact, the Saudis are using the Ukraine War and its oil resources as leverage against the United States. It is warming up to China in what many see as a realigning of the international order. Read more in “Saudi Crown Prince Uses Leverage Against the United States”, The Soufan Center Intel Brief, March 22, 2022. Of course, the lack of Saudi cooperation hasn’t seemed to diminish the eagerness of the United States to transfer Patriot missile batteries to that country to help it defend against missile and drone attacks from Yemen.

Western SOF? Some conjecture that Western special operations forces are actively engaged in supporting Ukrainian forces in the conflict is now taking place. Certainly they are ‘in touch’ with their Ukrainian SOF counterparts . . . but to what degree? The Brits could be leaning forward in this area.

Mercenaries in Ukraine. Both warring countries are actively recruiting foreigners to their fighting ranks. Robert Lawless, managing director of the Lieber Institute for Law & Land Warfare at the United States Military Academy (West Point), examines the legality of ‘mercenaries’ in the Ukraine War. “Are Mercenaries in Ukraine?”, Articles of War, March 21, 2022. There has been a lot of talk about Syrians going to Ukraine to fight on behalf of the Russians, but there has not been a detectable influx of foreign fighters hired or recruited by Russia. There are hundreds of ‘private soldiers’ of the Wagner Group currently engaged in combat in Ukraine.

Commentary

Ukraine, Nukes, and the Indo-Pacific. Countries around the world are watching the Ukraine War with great interest. They have observed the West refrain from some potentially escalatory responses (no-fly zone, MiG-29s, etc.) due to the verbal threats of Putin to employ nuclear weapons. They also know that the agreement between Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom to ensure the security of Ukraine if it gave up its nuclear weapons was meaningless. There are lessons here for the nations of the Indo-Pacific. North Korea is going to continue to improve its nuclear weapons capability, China is engaged in a nuclear modernization program, and Pakistan has nukes as well. Read more in “Ukraine war may drive more Indo-Pacific nations towards nuclear weapons”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, ASPI, March 22, 2022.

SOF News welcomes the submission of articles for publication. If it is related to special operations, current conflicts, national security, defense, or the current conflict in Ukraine then we are interested.

Maps and Other Resources

UNCN. The Ukraine NGO Coordination Network is an organization that ties together U.S.-based 501c3 organizations and non-profit humanitarian organizations that are working to evacuate and support those in need affected by the Ukraine crisis. https://uncn.one

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Janes Equipment Profile – Ukraine Conflict. An 81-page PDF provides information on the military equipment of the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces. Covers naval, air, electronic warfare, C4ISR, communications, night vision, radar, and armored fighting vehicles, Ukraine Conflict Equipment Profile, February 28, 2022.
https://www.janes.com/docs/default-source/ukraine-conflict/equipment-profile_report_280222.pdf

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

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Ukraine War Update – March 21, 2022

SOF News — Mon, 21 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Photo: On March 16, 2022 the Russian Federation flag was lowered in front of the headquarters of the Council of Europe. (One of the middle flagpoles is missing a flag). COE announced that the Russian Federation has ceased to be a member of the Council of Europe. Read more on the expulsion of Russia from the COE by Andreas N. Ludwig in “Europe’s Division Deepens with Russia’s Council of Europe Expulsion”, E-International Relations, March 18, 2022.

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Russian Campaign Update. The current Russian offensive appears to be over. Until significant numbers of Russian units deploy into Ukraine and the Russian logistics system is fixed the war is a stalemate. The Ukrainians can halt the Russians in the offensive operations and conduct localized offensive counterattacks. But they do not have the weapons or strength to go on a general offensive across the country. Many observers have pointed out that the Russian campaign was poorly planned and executed and that logistics has played an important role. There is another factor of why the Russian campaign has not gone well. Read more in “Communication Breakdown: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Bogged Down”, Radio Free Europe, March 19, 2022. Russian killed or wounded have been about 1,000 a day according to Western intelligence estimates.

Fight for the Skies. Neither the Russians or the Ukrainians are commanding the skies. The anti-air defenses of both countries is too strong. Russia is relying on long-range missiles launched from ground or air platforms from inside its borders. The continued supply of Stingers and other shoulder-fired MANPADs provided by the West are enhancing the air defense capabilities of the Ukrainian military. Read more in “The Russian Air Force Over Ukraine”, SOFREP, March 19, 2022.

S-300s for Ukraine (Slovakia). Several news sources say that the The Netherlands and Germany are sending their Patriot anti-missile batteries to Slovakia. One social media account noted that German Patriots were traveling on a Czech highway on Saturday (Mar 19). The Patriots are presumed to be a temporary replacement for the Slovakian S-300s that may be heading to Ukraine. These mid-range weapons will complement the short-range capabilities of the Stinger and other MANPADs.

S-400s for Ukraine (Turkey)? So will Turkey release some of its S-400 anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine? Apparently the United States has quietly floated the idea to Turkey. Wouldn’t that be a turn of events? For a number of years the Russians got a lot of play out of the fact that Turkey, a NATO member, was buying a Russian air defense system instead of opting for the U.S. made Patriot. Turkey received the first S-400s in July 2019. Of course, there will likely be something in it for Turkey. Perhaps reconsideration of involvement in the F-35 program and relief from sanctions on Turkey’s defense industry. Chances of this happening are close to zero. (Reuters, Mar 19, 2022).

Russia’s Hypersonic Missile. The Russians have claimed to use the Kinzhal hypersonic missile for the first time in the Ukraine War. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video on Saturday (Mar 19) that showed a Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile hitting a Ukrainian missile warehouse about 300 miles southwest of Kyiv. A MiG-31 launched the Kh-47M2 missile at high-speed and high-altitude at the underground missile storage facility in Delyatyn, Ukraine. Not all the information about this new development is in. Most observers say the use of the hypersonic missile was ‘a message to NATO’. “We Have Questions About Russia’s Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use in Ukraine”, The WarZone, March 19, 2022. See also “Why Calling Russia’s Kinzhal a ‘Hypersonic Missile’ is a Stretch”, Sandbox, March 19, 2022.

Belarus Railways. There are reports that Belarusian railway workers have been sabotaging the railway lines leading to Ukraine. This will further complicate the already troubled Russian logistic situation in Ukraine. The railway junctions connecting the Ukrainian and Russian railways had been blown up on February 26th.

Kyiv and Kharkiv and Rivne. The Russian assault on Kyiv appears to be on hold. The Ukrainian defense has halted the Russian advance on the capital city. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, located in the northeast of the country is still held by the Ukrainians . . . and there is no indication that the Russians will or can capture the city. Two Russian missiles hit the military training grounds of Rivne on Sunday (Mar 20), located 300 km west of Kyiv.

Russian Ultimatum for Mariupol. A demand for surrender of Mariupol has been issued to the Ukrainians. In the demand Russia said that it would only establish a humanitarian corridor if Mariupol surrenders. The answer was a firm “No”. The deadline for the surrender acceptance was Monday morning (Mar 21). There are reports that Ukrainians in the city are being taken to camps, checked for documentation, and then taken out of the city to Russia proper. Read more in “Thousands of Mariupol residents ‘forcibly’ taken to Russian camps”, New York Post, March 19, 2022. News reports continue to be published about the shelling of residential areas of the city. “Officials: Russia bombed Mariupol school housing 400”, Washington Examiner, March 20, 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War. See the current SITMAP (20 Mar) posted by Ukraine War Map @War_Mapper. One open-source investigative group has published an interactive map of civilian facilities destroyed by Russia in the course of its invasion of Ukraine.

Humanitarian Crisis

Refugees and IDPs. As of March 20, over 3,500,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The situation in the cities of Mariupol and Sumy are extremely dire, with residents facing critical shortages of food, water, and medicine. Odessa, on the Black Sea Coast, is short on food for its 450,000 residents. Ukrainian refugees (in excess of 3 million) have found safety and shelter in the neighboring countries of Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Ninety per cent of the refugees are women and children. Almost 162,000 of those that fled Ukraine are third-country nationals. Read a summary of the humanitarian crisis in a March 18, 2022 press release from the United Nations. The Ukrainian government, in concert with other organizations, are organizing ‘humanitarian corridors‘ for residents of settlements affected by the Russian invasion. On Sunday (Mar 20) only four out of seven agreed-upon humanitarian corridors were able to carry out evacuations.

Refugees in Moldova. One of Europe’s poorest nations has taken in almost 350,000 Ukrainian refugees. Many of them are fleeing from the Russian onslaught on cities in southern Ukraine near Crimea and along the coast of the Black Sea. Moldova is a small country with less than 4 million residents. Living in temporary shelters in Moldova the refugees wonder what comes next. (USA Today, Mar 20, 2022).

General Information

Russian Soldiers and a Belarus Morgue. About 60 kilometers from the Ukrainian border in Mazyr, Belarus are morgues and hospitals overflowing with dead and wounded Russian soldiers. “Morgue ‘full of Russian soldiers’ as corpses ‘shipped away at night to hide death toll'”, Mirror (UK), March 19, 2022. See also “In Belarusian Morgues and Hospitals, Clues to Russian Military Losses in Ukraine”, Radio Free Europe, March 18, 2022.

Ukrainian International Legion? A temporary visa-free regime has been established for foreigners who wish to join the Ukraine International Legion. Find out more here.

Overthrowing Putin? A group of influential Russians are looking for an opportunity to overthrow the Russian leader. According to a Facebook post from the Chief Directorate of Intelligence for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine a group wants to end the war, end the sanctions, and remove Putin. Of course, this all could be disinformation on the part of the Ukraine intelligence. “Russian elites planning to overthrow Putin: Ukrainian intelligence”, New York Post, March 20, 2022.

Russian Medals for Ukraine “Special Military Operation”. Apparently the Russian military was prepared for a quick success in Ukraine. One social media account says that Russia had pre-minted medals for the ‘occupation of Kiev and Lviv’ and the ‘liberation of Odessa’. Things that make you go “hmmm”.

The Coming Resistance

NATO, Ukraine, and ‘Resilience’. Since the Russian invasion of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014 the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has developed the concept of resilience as a way for a small nation to deter and defeat a future invasion by Russia. This resilience is associated with the Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) advanced by Special Operations Command – Europe (SOCEUR) and other NATO countries. Julian Reid, a professor of International Relations at the University of Lapland, Finland, informs us that “Ukraine is proving to be a laboratory for the testing of resilience as a strategy of national defence.” He notes that proponents of resilience in NATO will be encouraged; however, it will also make society itself into a more direct agent of war . . . and therefore a target in a war. “Resilient Ukraine and the Future of War in Europe”, E-International Relations, March 17, 2022.

Cyber and Information Operations

Urban Myths of Ukraine War. Stories like the one about the 13 Coast Guard members who were killed on Snake Island in the Black Sea rather than surrender to a Russian warship or of a Ukrainian air force pilot who continues to knock Russian jets out of the sky over Kyiv are inspiring. The tale of a heroic Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot who shot down six Russian fighters in a single day over the capital city in the early days of the war got bigger when, days later, he was reported to have shot down four more Russian jets. Do these stories have to be true? Not necessarily. Are they helpful to Ukraine’s cause? Yes, Ukrainians need hope. “The Ghost of Kyiv and the Urban Myths of Warfare”, Clearance Jobs, March 11, 2022.

Paper – Mis & Disinformation: Handling the 21st Century Challenge in the Humanitarian Sector, Digital Humanitarian Network , February 2022, 26 pages. View here.

Cyber, IO, and Intel Sharing. During testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday (Mar 17) the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency described the intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine as revolutionary. The head of the National Security Agency testified that there has never been a better sharing of accurate, timely and actionable intelligence about Ukraine. Much of this intelligence is quickly employed to discount the information warfare activities of Russia and to defend against its cyber attacks. Much more information was briefed to the House during a follow-on classified hearing. “Intel Sharing Between U.S. and Ukraine ‘Revolutionary’ Says DIA Director”, USNI News, March 18, 2022.

Podcast – Russian Cyber and Info Ops. Russia had enjoyed a reputation of being a formidable foe in the IO and cyber arena. However, some skillful defensive measures by Ukraine has blunted the effectiveness of the the Russian attempts both before and during the invasion. “Gray Zone, Twilight Zone or Danger Zone? Russian Cyber and Information Operations in Ukraine”, War on the Rocks, March 18, 2022, 37 minutes.

World Response

Video – Volunteers and Safe Passage Out of Ukraine. How do people find safe passage out of Ukraine during Russia’s War? BBC News, YouTube, March 19, 2022, 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G52FIQmCziY

Russia – Impact of Sanctions and Trade Actions. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the United States and other nations around the world imposed financial sanctions and trade actions. There is a move in Congress to revoke Russia’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status. There is the possibility of action to be taken by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Read a summary of these different punitive measures that includes the background, impact on imports from removing PNTR, and various issues associated with WTO actions. Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s Trade Status, Tariffs, and WTO Issues, Congressional Research Service, CRS IN11881, March 18, 2022, PDF, 4 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11881

Commentary

Boost Military Assistance. Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, says that Ukrainians will ultimately defeat Putin’s army. But there are some questions. How long will it take and how many Ukrainians will have to die? McFaul argues more weapons and more sanctions are needed immediately. “Why the West must boost military assistance to Ukraine”, The Washington Post, March 16, 2022.

Ukraine – Validating USMC’s Force Design 2030. Christopher Corrow, a strategy analyst in the Headquarters of the Marine Corps and OIF veteran, says that the Marine Corps Force Design 2030 is a necessary change that positions the Marine Corps as a unique and necessary element of U.S. military power. This move to the future by the USMC saw the divestment of much of its tank force and some of its short-range fire support. “The Russian Losses in Ukraine Validate the Marine Corp’s Force Design”, National Review, March 18, 2022.

For Russia – Is Ukraine Enough? NATO is busy reinvigorating itself against an enemy it thought had gone away. Many feel that Russia will stop with acquiring parts of Ukraine. But others fear that the invasion of Ukraine is only the beginning. The Baltic states are vulnerable from land and sea. Will NATO defend them? “Russia may not stop with Ukraine – NATO looks to its weakest link”, Reuters, March 21, 2022.

More Nukes in the World? In 1994, Ukraine agreed to destroy the nuclear stockpile, the world’s third largest, it inherited from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It did this in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Without NATO membership and its own nuclear weapons, it was unable to deter Russia from invading. Our nations are taking notice. “Will Putin’s war force more medium-sized states to seek nuclear weapons?”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), March 21, 2022.

Putin – Making NATO Great Again. General (Ret.) David Petraeus was interviewed by Peter Bergen last week. Bergen is a national security analyst with CNN. The retired general and former CIA director says that the war “has played out in its first three weeks.” He believes it will become a conflict of urban warfare which will generally favor the Ukrainians. The Russians are unlikely to take the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Instead of weakening NATO, Putin has unified it and made it stronger. “Russian forces ‘clearly have very poor standards,’ General Petraeus says”, MSN.com, March 19, 2022.

Putin’s War and Africa. Russia has received some support from a few African nations. Most African governments, however, appear wary of becoming embroiled in the conflict and many are discouraging their citizens from joining the fight – whether to support Russia or Ukraine. “African Reactions to Russia’s Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine”, IntelBrief, The Soufan Center, March 21, 2022.

Post-War Europe. The European backlash against Russia will likely endure even as hostilities cease. RAND Corporation’s Raphael Cohen examines the longer-term implications for Europe, assessing how it will affect European energy policy, military preparedness, and overall unity. “Europe After the Ukraine War”, Lawfare, March 20, 2022.

Events and Podcasts

Online Event – OSS Society. Dr. Robert Gates (former Secretary of Defense) and Dr. Michael Vickers (former DoD official, CIA officer, and Green Beret) will have a discussion about Ukraine, Putin’s War, and resistance during an online event sponsored by the OSS Society. Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM EDT.

Online Event – Press Club Brussels Europe. The Ukrainian Think Tanks Liaison Office in Brussels and the Polish Institute of International Affairs Brussels Office are holding an online Zoom event (English) entitled “How to support Ukraine in resisting the Russian invasion”. The event will be held on March 22, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

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Ukraine War Update – March 19, 2022

SOF News — Sat, 19 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Image. 1928 Ethnic Map of Ukraine. American Geographical Society Library, University of Wisconsin.

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Russian Campaign Update. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said (Mar 17) that President Putin “may be growing more desperate” as Ukraine mounts fierce resistance to the invasion and the Russian offense is stalled. He believes Russia is using its propaganda to develop the narrative of Ukraine planning to use biological or chemical weapons. It is believed that this would lay the groundwork for Russia to employ these weapons but blame Ukraine. The invasion has been costly to the Russians, with an estimated 7,000 soldiers killed. Ukrainian military losses are said to be around 1,300. Russian troop morale has plummeted. The supply problems persist – shortage of food, fuel, and ammunition.

Air and Sea. Russian missiles have struck a number of targets across eastern Ukraine. Kyiv and Kharkiv are experiencing periodic shelling by the Russians. It is estimated (U.S. DoD) that over 1,080 missiles have been fired at Ukraine since the start of the invasion. There are reports that Germany and the Netherlands will provide Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to Slovakia; who will provide their S-300 anti-air defense systems to Ukraine. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.

Battle for the Cities. The capital city of Ukraine is experiencing shelling but the Russians do not seem to be making much headway in getting closer to the city center. To the west of Kviv and near Brovary (under Ukrainian control) the Russians are digging trenches and defensive positions. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, is located in the northeast of the country and has been under attack for weeks. The Ukrainians have mounted limited counterattacks in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Mykolayiv areas. An aid convoy reached the besieged city of Sumy near the northeast border area.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. About 130 residents have been rescued from a Mariupol theater where up to a thousand sought safety from Russian shelling. Hundreds remained trapped in the rubble and are feared dead. 80% of the city has been destroyed by shelling.

Mykolayiv. Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack in the vicinity of Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Without significant reinforcements, it is doubtful that the Russians can advance towards Odessa, located on the Black Sea west of Mykolayiv.

Lviv. This western city has been relatively untouched by the war . . . when compared to cities in eastern Ukraine. It has been a haven for thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs). Many Ukrainians are arriving in Lviv and staying 4 to 5 nights before departing for the border. The city receives about 10,000 people daily and there are no available rooms in hostels, hotel, or apartments to rent.

Refugees. As of March 18, over 3,200,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The United Nations Migration Agency says that 6.5 million Ukrainians are internally displaced. The Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report for March 18 has been posted by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has released a report entitled Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis in Ukraine, PDF, 4 pages, 18 March 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War. MilitaryLand provides a daily situation update as well as detailed maps of each of the conflict zones in Ukraine. @JominiW provides his detailed SITMAP as well.

General Information

Biden Warns China. On Friday (Mar 18) President Biden threatened China with “consequences” if it aids Russia. In a two hour long phone call with Xi Jinping, the president detailed possible U.S. responses should Beijing provide support and assistance to Russia. It is likely that some of these responses would include sanctions on China.

U.S. Weapons to Ukraine. On Wednesday, March 15, 2022, the White House released a statement listing the weapons provided to Ukraine. Since the start of the Biden administration over a year ago about $2 billion in security assistance has been provided to Ukraine. Some of the direct weapons transfers include 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, almost 11,000 anti-armor systems, five Mi-17 helicopters, three patrol boats, satellite imagery and analysis capabilities, and other weapons. “Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine”, The White House, March 16, 2022. One weapon to be provided to Ukraine includes small, one-time use drones recently adopted by U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF). Read about it in “U.S. Adds “Kamiakaze Drones” as More Weapons Flow to Ukraine”, Lobo Institute, March 18, 2022.

Russia’s Shadow Warriors. Wagner Group mercenaries have been battle-hardened in Syria, Libya, Central Africa Republic, and Donbas. They are Putin’s de facto private army loosely associated with Russia’s GRU. They are now, according to some press reports, hunting for the President of Ukraine. “The shadow warriors deployed to kill Zelensky”, Asia Times, March 19, 2022.

Tanks Without Infantry = Failure. There aren’t enough Russian infantry units in Ukraine. Many Russian tanks are in combat without infantry support and traveling down roads with no flank security. This lack of foot soldiers, usually found in motorized rifle regiments, means that Russian maneuver capabilities are limited. A tank’s armor is up front, not on the sides or in the rear. Infantrymen protect a tank’s sides and rear; but in their absence the tanks are vulnerable to ambush by the enemy from anti-armor weapons like the Javelin, NLAW, and others. Tanks in combat are ‘buttoned-up’ with limited visibility. David Axe provides the details: “In Ukraine, Russian Tanks Are Fighting Without the Protection of Infantry”, Forbes, March 15, 2022.

Bread Prices Rise Worldwide. Russia and Ukraine provide 30% of the world’s wheat. The Ukraine War is affecting the food supply worldwide and bread prices are going up. The United Nation’s World Food Program (WFP) says that poorer countries will be most affected by the shortage of wheat.

Russian Astronauts. Apparently three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station on Friday (Mar 18) in flight suits made in yellow and blue, seeming close to the colors of the Ukrainian flag. They are on board the ISS for a six-month long stay, joining the crew of two Russians, four Americans, and one German. Where their standard-issue blue uniforms are is unknown at this time. “Russian cosmonauts arrive at ISS in colours of Ukrainian flag”, The Times, March 19, 2022.

Rough Start for Foreign Legion? Andrew Milburn, a retired Marine Corps officer who served with MARSOC, is now on assignment in Ukraine for Task & Purpose. He writes about his initial impression of the ‘internationals’ who are joining the Ukrainian’s unit for foreigners. His first impression is mixed. “Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia”, Task & Purpose, March 18, 2022.

Escaping the Russians – and Crowdsourcing. Volunteer groups have formed up to provide a way out of the cities currently being bombed and shelled by the Russians and on the verge of capture. Volunteers in Ukraine and abroad are coordinating rides from eastern Ukraine cities to western Ukraine and beyond into neighboring countries on buses, private vehicles, and in taxis. “Ukraine: How crowdsourcing is rescuing people from the war zone”, BBC News, March 19, 2022.

House votes on Trade with Russia. The U.S. House of Representatives voted to suspend normal trade operations with Russia. In a vote of 424 to 8, the representatives voted to strip Russia of preferential trade status and impose higher tariffs. Eight members of the Republican party voted in opposition to the bill.

Ukrainian Women Standing Strong. Some 32,000 women who belonged to the Ukrainian defense forces before the Russian invasion are now patrolling checkpoints and on the front lines. Many more women have joined the country’s armed forces since the invasion. “Ukrainian women stand strong against Russian invaders”, The Washington Post, March 18, 2022.

Pravda Propaganda – and 3 NG Members KIA. The Russian media outlet reported that three members of the Tennessee National Guard died while fighting in Donbas, Ukraine. The news outlet called them U.S. ‘mercenaries’. They listed the names of three current or former members of the 278th Armored Cavalry Regiment who served during a 2018 training mission in Ukraine. The National Guard says the three individuals are accounted for, not in Ukraine, and are alive. (Military Times, Mar 17, 2022)

How Ukraine Wins. Timothy Garton Ash expects Ukraine to suffer through a Russian campaign of long-distance bombardment and siege. But he describes how Ukraine can win the war. “How Ukraine can win”, The Spectator, March 19, 2022.

The Coming Resistance

Website – “Center for National Resistance”. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced the creation of an official website for the “Center for National Resistance”. The center will support and coordinate those who are fighting for the liberation of Russian occupied territory. It provides guidance on urban warfare and insurgent activities. The website will be run by Ukrainian Special Operations Forces. It is in Ukrainian with an English option.
https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/

U.S. Assistance to Insurgency – Vital. Christopher Costa, currently the executive director of the International Spy Museum, is a former career intelligence officer. He argues that the United States needs to start now to help setup the Ukrainian resistance to fight the occupation of the Russians. “The US must help the resistance wage the ‘other war’ in Ukraine”, The Hill Opinion, March 15, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

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Ukraine War Update – March 18, 2022

SOF News — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 10:50:36 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

Russian Campaign Update. The Russian offensive has, for the most part, taken a temporary break. One cause for this appears to be constant counterattacks that keep the Russians off balance and the interdiction of resupply lines that interrupt the flow of fuel, food, and ammunition. There were small advances attempted in a few locations.

Belarus. The Russians used the country to the north of Ukraine as a staging area for the invasion forces. It continues to transit supplies and personnel south across the Belarus border. Air strikes and missile launches are coming from Belarus as well. The Russian dead and wounded are moved north into Belarus and then on to Russia. Belarus troops have not yet joined the fight. There are concerns that Russian and / or Belarus units in Brest (southwest Belarus) could strike south across the border to interdict the east – west supply lines of communications (train and vehicle) in western Ukraine.

Fight for the Skies. The Russians have launched over 1,000 missiles into Ukraine – most from Russia and some from within Ukraine air space. The Russians have still not attained air superiority. The Ukrainians continue to press for a no-fly zone and for fighter jets. They are receiving record numbers of shoulder-fired ground to air missiles that are effective up to 11,000 feet.

S-300. The Ukrainians are hopeful that some more sophisticated weapons like the S-300 air defense system (see photo above) will be provided by some East European nations (Slovakia?). Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was in Slovakia on Thursday (Mar 17) and Slovakia’s S-300s was a topic of conversation. Slovakia will pass its S-300s to Ukraine if they are backfilled with air defense weapons from the United States.

No Fly Zone. During his speech to the U.S. Congress on Wednesday (Mar 16) the Ukrainian president made a plea for NATO to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Administration officials cite the dangers of starting a larger war, one with an adversary with nuclear weapons, as the main reason for not establishing a no-fly zone. Raphael S. Cohen argues that we shouldn’t rule it out completely in “Why It Could be a Strategic Mistake to Rule Out a No-Fly Zone Policy”, RAND Corporation, March 16, 2022.

Deadly Ukraine Skies. The Russian Air Force (VKS) is simply never meant to fight the way Western air forces do. It isn’t just the Stinger, Igla, and other air defense weapons systems that threaten Russian pilots. A dangerous combination of doctrine, training, and equipment are also partly to blame for the heavy losses of the VKS. Many of the Russian air support strikes for its ground troops are conducted at low levels – leaving them exposed to the numerous MANPADs available to the Ukraine military. There are other factors at play – one is the ‘supportive role’ of the VKS in a military campaign – it isn’t designed to attain ‘air supremacy’. Another factor is the type of bombs the Russians have – they have more ‘dumb’ bombs than ‘smart’ bombs. This means they have to fly at lower altitudes for accuracy and they can’t launch many standoff weapons due to a lack of targeting pods. “Why the skies over Ukraine have proven so deadly for Russian pilots”, by David Roza, Task & Purpose, March 17, 2022.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa. There is the possibility of a future landing of a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.

Ukrainian Defense (and Offense). Ukraine officials say that over 320,000 Ukrainians have returned to their home country. Most of them are men. The Ukrainian military launched a number of counteroffensives against Russian positions in the vicinity of Kyiv – principally in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel. A Ukrainian offensive is also taking place in the vicinity of Kherson – currently held by the Russians.

Missile Strikes on Lviv. A location near the Lviv International Airport has been bombed. Reports say several Russian cruise missiles struck a nearby aircraft repair facility in the western city of Lviv on Friday morning (Mar 18). Some reports say there were 6 cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. Other than some shelling, the city itself is not under attack. Lines of communication with the rest of the country are still intact from the southerly direction. The main avenue of attack on Kyiv remains from the north and northwest – one that is about 15 kilometers from the city center. The attack from the east is stalled and is about 30 kilometers from the city center. To the east the major town of Brovary remains in Ukrainian hands.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. It is constantly under artillery, rocket, and missile attack. The Ukrainian forces continue to hold the city. Many believe the Russians are trying to demoralize the city’s inhabitants with the indiscriminate shelling on residential areas.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The Russians struck a theater where hundreds of women and children were seeking shelter. Authorities say that 130 survivors have been recovered from the wreckage and that recovery efforts are continuing. Some reports say that between 500 to 1,000 people had been sheltered in the theater. The city is encircled and has been cut off from electricity, water, gas, mobile networks, food, and medical supplies. It is being shelled every day. Up to 80 per cent of the residential buildings have been destroyed.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

Biden and China. President Biden is expected to speak with President Xi on Friday (Mar 18). The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the message from Biden is that China should not support Russia. The conversation will also touch on competition between the two countries as well as other issues of mutual concern. Putin’s war in Ukraine has negative and positive consequences for the rulers in Beijing. “Beijing’s goals and Putin’s war are meshing in nasty ways”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Initiative (ASPI), March 18, 2022.

Switchblade Drones. A drone recently developed by the United States and used by U.S. special operations forces is being sent to Ukraine. One hundred of the Switchblade drones are being sent, with the possibility of more in the future. Costing about $6,000 a piece, they are able to be carried in a backpack and flown by an operator to its target. The drone comes with a warhead and used by crashing into the target.

Super Yachts. A number of big yachts owned by rich Russians are being seized around the world. The most recent one is a 443-foot yacht worth $600 million taken by Spain. It is part of a crackdown on oligarchs that support Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine.

Insurgency Scenarios. Prior to the February 24th invasion there was a lot of speculation on how the conflict would end. Most national security observers noted that the Russians would score a quick win, seizing most or all of Ukraine. Some went on to describe different types of insurgencies that might take place in the aftermath of the war. Emily Harding is one who analyzed ‘the future’. Read her thoughts on the topic in “Scenario Analysis on a Ukrainian Insurgency”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 15, 2022.

IO – a Decisive Role. Russian has locked down access to almost all social media platforms, to include Facebook and Twitter. It has also blocked access to news media like Radio Free Europe and some independent Russian news services. It has passed laws that criminalize the spreading of “fake news” with up to 15 years in prison. However, Ukraine and the west can fight back in the information operations arena. “Keeping Russians Informed about Ukraine Could Help End This War”, The RAND Blog, March 14, 2022.

Humanitarian Effort in Ukraine. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, United Nations agencies and other international organizations had a limited presence in the country. There were about 34 international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and nine UN agencies in the country prior to February 24th, most of them in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Now they are busy establishing and scaling up humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Learn how the NGOs and UN agencies are regrouping and now providing assistance. “In Ukraine, building an emergency aid response (almost) from scratch“, The New Humanitarian, March 17, 2022.

Refugees. As of March 18, over 3,000,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has published its March 17 Situation Report (PDF, 9 pages).

Women Fighters in Ukraine. Most media coverage of women in Ukraine falls into three different stereotypes. The peacemaker, the victim, and the pseudo-soldier. “The Mystique of the Female Soldier: Portrayals of Ukrainian Women in Western Media”, by Sarah Keisler, Georgetown Security Studies Review, March 15, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

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Photo: Slovak S-2300PMU TELs. EllsworthSK, CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Ukraine War Update – March 17, 2022

SOF News — Thu, 17 Mar 2022 10:45:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

Russian Campaign Update. The Russian advanced is stalled. Much of its current offensive activity consists of shelling with airstrikes (standoff), missiles, and short-range rockets. The Iskander missile (pictured above) has been used quite frequently. According to news reports and social media the Russians appear to be hitting a number of civilian targets with these area weapons. The cities of Kharkiv and Mariupol are facing dire circumstances with shortages of food, fuel, water, and electricity and constant shelling of residential areas by the Russians. It is still pressing the attack against coastal city of Mariupol. As of March 16 the Russians have fired over 900 missiles from Russia and within Ukraine. Western Ukraine has not been targeted over the past few days.

Civilian Facilities Targeted by Russians. Many hospitals and medical clinics have been attacked according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Russia has stated that the attacks are ‘false flag’ operations by Ukrainian forces. Many observers note that a favorite Russian tactic is to demoralize the civilian population and cause a flow of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to disrupt their opponents operations and to ‘cleanse’ the occupied areas of potential future insurgents. There are reports that many deaths and hundreds of injuries were suffered by Ukrainians seeking safety in a theater that was clearly marked as sheltering civilians. Read “Hundreds feared trapped in Ukraine theater hit by airstrike”, AP News, March 17, 2022.

Fight for the Skies. The Ukrainians may not get a no-fly zone or Polish MiG-29s; but they will continue to receive thousands of MANPADs. In addition, efforts are underway to provide more sophisticated air defense weapons that will reach altitudes that MANPADs cannot reach. There are reports that Slovakia may provide Ukraine with some of its S-300 air defense systems. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is going to be visiting Slovakia in the next several days and this will likely be a topic during the meetings. Slovakia will likely press the U.S. for some replacement systems if they go ahead with the S-300 transfer to Ukraine. There could be one or two U.S-manned Patriot missile batteries heading that way in the future.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues. Thus far, the only amphibious landing of naval infantry that has taken place in the war occurred on the coast of the Sea of Azov in support of the Mariupol siege. There has no yet been a landing on the coast of the Black Sea. In the Black Sea there are likely six amphibious landing ships each with the capability to land about 300 troops and 12 main battle tanks. The seizure of the Baltic Leader, a Russian merchant ship, in the English Channel on February 25, 2022 has raised some legal questions about high seas freedoms.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. Apparently the Russians had been preparing for a ‘victory parade’ in Kyiv. A secret stash of Russian military dress uniforms were found near Kyiv – providing an indication that the Russians had anticipated a quick military victory. (Politico). The Russians have made limited but unsuccessful attacks in the region northwest of Kyiv. For the last 24 hours the region east of Kyiv has been quiet, with the Russian forces still about 30 kilometers away. The Ukrainians are still in control of the town of Brovary, east of Kyiv. The U.S. Department of Defense said on Wednesday (Mar 16) that the Russians have not made any significant advances toward the city.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The city has still not been encircled, but it is suffering intense shelling from aircraft, missiles, and rockets. The Ukrainians have mounted several counterattacks over the past few weeks to keep the Russians off balance.

Sumy Region. The northeast city of Sumy has been the focus of a Russian attack over the past few weeks. This city and the surrounding villages have suffered extensive damage. Watch drone footage of the devastation. “Drone Footage Shows Extensive Damage in Eastern Ukraine’s Sumy Region”, Radio Free Europe, March 15, 2022.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The city is still being defended by Ukrainian forces. The Russians have been using long-range fires to strike military and civilian targets in the city.

Mykolayiv and then Odessa. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Russian warships have been shelling towns near Odessa as naval activity has been increasing in the northern Black Sea.

Refugees. As of March 16, over 3,000,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). This includes about 1.5 million children. A March 16, 2022 report (PDF, 9 pages) by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) provides details on the humanitarian impact of the Ukraine War.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

Zelensky’s Address to Congress. On Wednesday (Mar 16) the Ukrainian president addressed the United States Congress with an emotional appeal for a no-fly zone, more sanctions, fighter jets, and more shipments of military weapons and supplies. On Tuesday (Mar 15) the U.S. Senate passed a resolution condemning the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Putin, members of the Russian Security Council, the Russian Armed Forces, and Russian military commanders for committing atrocities against the Ukrainian people.

More U.S. Military Aid. On Wednesday (Mar 16) President Biden delivered remarks on the assistance that the United States is providing to Ukraine in a televised event (DVIDS, 9 mins). He announced more military aid ($800 million) to be shipped to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The equipment includes 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 9,000 anti-armor systems (Javelin, AT-4, etc.), 100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (Switchblades used by SOF), 7,000 small arms, and munitions for artillery and mortars.

NATO Conference. President Biden will travel to Europe to meet with European heads of state and senior officials of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The event will take place in Brussels. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will be present as well.

Ruling by International Court of Justice. On Wednesday (Mar 16) the curt issued a ruling in Ukraine’s case against the Russian Federation under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The ruling ordered Russia to immediately suspend the military operation in Ukraine. (DoS press release 16 March 2022).

Legality of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Much of the information operations (IO) battle concerns the opinions formed by the international community of the justification and legality of the Russian invasion. A recent report by the Congressional Research Service examines the Russian reasons for its invasion of Ukraine and subsequent actions during the conflict in the context of international law. The Law of War and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, CRS, March 16, 2022, PDF, 5 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10710

Germany’s Big Defense Shift. The recent invasion of Ukraine has prompted the German government to reverse decades of German pacifism and pivot toward building a stronger military and defense industry. It will begin to institute reforms to bring its defense spending in lien with the 2 per cent NATO requirement. Putin has managed, with his aggression in Ukraine, to take Germany off the sidelines and have it once again assume its traditional status as central Europe’s dominant military power. “Germany’s Defence Pivot”, Defence Connect, March 17, 2022.

Cyberspace and the Military. The dynamics of cyberspace and conflict are driving fundamental shifts that the military and society will have to surmount. There are some unique challenges to the cyber civil-military relationship – a couple include the constant quest for intelligence by military leaders and perhaps a tendency to see cyber as a weapon that does not cause human suffering . . . and therefore the threshold for employment is lower. Jason Healey, president of the Cyber Conflict Studies Association, explores these issues and more in “Soldiers, Statesmen and Cyber Crises: Cyberspace and Civil-Military Relations”, Lawfare, March 16, 2022.

Ukrainian Version of the Ballad of the Green Berets. Members of the U.S. Special Forces community will recognize this tune. “One Hundred Warriors”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=X2V8dpQQgMY

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

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Photo: The Iskander (SS-26 Stone) is a mobile short range ballistic missile deployed by the Russian military. It has played a big role in the Ukraine War. Photo by Vitaly V. Kuzmin – http://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/ARMY-2016-Demonstration/, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=52213498

Ukraine War Update – March 16, 2022

SOF News — Wed, 16 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

Russian Campaign Update. The Russian offensive seems to have stalled out due to logistics and other factors. It seems they don’t have the numbers of forces on the ground for a sustained offensive. In time, the necessary forces and supplies to renew the offensive will arrive in the operational area as Russia flows more equipment and personnel into the region. The Russians, in some areas, are channelized on main road due to ‘Rasputica‘ – the mud season. Putin has purged the higher echelons of Russian intelligence agencies blaming them for the poor performance of the Russian military.

Fight for the Skies. The Ukrainians managed to attack one of Russia’s forward operating bases at an airfield near Kherson. Several helicopters were destroyed. “Ukraine Strikes Back”, The Drive, March 15, 2022. There are some social media reports that the White House is considering providing Ukraine will some Switchblade drones currently used by U.S. special operations.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues. The amphibious force with naval infantry are still off shore ready to be committed at the opportune time. “Russian Navy Landing Ships Seen Approaching Ukrainian Coast Near Odessa”, Naval News, March 15, 2022.

The Ground Fight. Much is made of the use of Russian tanks in the Ukraine War. The effectiveness of the tanks has been diminished due to muddy fields that channelize Russian vehicles, the use of numerous anti-armor weapons by the Ukrainian military, shortage of spare parts and fuel, and lack of proper operational planning and execution. Learn more about Russian tanks is a 8-minute video entitled Analyzing Russian Tanks in Ukraine: T80 “Flying” Tank, by Battle Order, March 13, 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VJNcE6hQu4

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. Over the past 24 hours the capital city has increased shelling. The encirclement of Kyiv by the Russians has yet to take place. The roads directly south and southwest in and out of Kyiv are open. There is a temporary restriction on movement of people.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The Russian offensive to take this city seems to be on hold. Perhaps it doesn’t have the necessary forces to take the city, and then logistics could be a key factor as well.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The capture of Mariupol will likely be the next key victory for the Russians. It is unlikely that the Ukrainian forces can break out of the city and also unlikely that the city can be relieved. The humanitarian convoy for Mariupol is still in Berdyansk – unable to get into the city. Thousands of people left the city on Tuesday (Mar 15) via a humanitarian corridor in 2,000 private vehicles. Another 2,000 are gathered in a location of the city to leave on Wed (Mar 16). There are around 350,000 people still remaining in the city. Read more in “In embattled Mariupol, glimpses of devastation and misery emerge”, The Washington Post, March 15, 2022.

Mykolayiv and Then Odessa. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. The Russian naval and air force conducted strikes in and around the city of Odessa on the Black Sea. A venture into Odessa by the Russians could subject them to the maze-like catacombs of the city – making for a difficult urban battle. Satellite images showed 14 ships approaching the coast of the Black Sea, one of the 120-meter landing ship Pyotr Morgunov of Russia’s northern fleet.

Refugees. As of March 15, over 3,000,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). Ukraine officials say that 7 of the 9 negotiated humanitarian corridors were open on Tuesday (Mar 15). The United Nations says that the Ukraine war is creating a child refugee almost every second. The United Nations Officer for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has published its Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report for March 15, 2022, PDF, 10 pages.

The International Rescue Committee has published a FAQ for refugees. The United States has designated Ukraine for Temporary Protected Status. This protects those Ukrainians who are working or studying in the U.S. from having to return to Ukraine. Tomasz Wroblewski, CEO of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, writes that the flow of refugees from Ukraine is part of a bigger plan to erode western European society. “Russian’s Not-So-Secret Weapon Against NATO and The West: Refugees”, 1945, March 15, 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

General Information

UKR Legion. The International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine has members from all over the world. Over 20,000 foreigners from 52 different countries have already volunteered. What is the status of these volunteers in a legal sense? If captured, are they legitimate combatants or just ‘mercenaries’? “Status of Foreign Fighters in the Ukrainian Legion”, Articles of War, Lieber Institute West Point, March 15, 2022.

Volunteer Groups Assisting. Perry Blackburn, retired Special Forces officer, explains what his volunteer organization is doing to assist the people of Ukraine. “AFGFree Assists with Ukraine Evacuation”, Forum Daily (CA), YouTube, March 15, 2022. See also an article by Jeff Schogol of Task & Purpose about a U.S. Army veteran now serving with the Ukrainian forces.

Private Americans Training Ukrainians. U.S. combat troops have come out of retirement to train Ukrainians in the fight against Putin’s forces. Read about one of the many small groups of informal instructors and trainers who have made their way to Ukraine to help resist Russian aggression. “U.S. Veterans Start a “Resistance Academy” in Ukraine. Will it Backfire?”, The Rolling Stone, March 12, 2022.

Fox Camera Crew Killed. Two members of a Fox News crew were killed in Ukraine when their vehicle was struck by incoming fire a few kilometers outside Kyiv. War zone veteran Pierre Zakrzewski was killed along with a Ukrainian ‘fixer’ who helped facilitate the news crews work in Ukraine. Oleksandra Kuvshynova, a Ukrainian journalist who worked with Zakrzewski, was killed in the same attack. Reporter Benjamin Hall was injured in the attack as well and is currently hospitalized in Kyiv.

Council of Europe – Minus Russia. The Council of Europe was about to cast Russia out of the organization. But Russia said “I Quit” first. Read a statement from the CoE on the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the Council of Europe. (March 15). The expulsion means that Russian citizens will not be able to bring cases to the European Court of Human Rights.

Putin a War Criminal. The U.S. Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed a resolution condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin as a war criminal. (Reuters, Mar 15, 2022).

The Coming Resistance

Mini-Manual for the Urban Defender. John Spencer has been writing about combat in the urban environment for years. He is considered one of the leading authorities on the tactics and techniques of fighting in big cities. He has published (March 15, 2022, version 1, PDF) a 50-page document on how to fight in a city as a defender.

The Next Phase. Ideally, Ukraine would recapture Russian-controlled areas through a conventional counter-offensive. However, that is unlikely. The United States and NATO countries should begin planning for the possibility that unconventional tactics will be necessary to overcome conventional Russian military power. “Ukraine Isn’t Waging an Insurgency – Yet”, The Defense Post, March 15, 2022.

Cyber and Information Operations

Video Game Footage and Propaganda. Lauren Coontz explores has footage from video games that are quickly rolled into video clips and posted on social media. One example is the online posting of videos about the “Ghost of Kyiv” where footage from Digital Combat Simulator World is used on TikTok and other social media platforms. “How Video Game Footage is Being Used in the Propaganda Wars”, Coffee or Die Magazine, March 14, 2022.

Russian Lies on Bio and Chem Wpns. The Russians are makin absurd claims about biological labs and chemical weapons in Ukraine according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. There is concern that Russian is prepping the world for a false flag operations, possibly including chemical weapons. Russia has helped facilitate the use of chemical weapons in Syria over the past decade. “NATO Chief: There Will be “High Price to Pay’ for Russian Use of Chemical Weapons”, DoD News, March 15, 2022.

World Response

NATO’s Response Since 2014 and Now. After Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO renewed its focus on territorial defense and deterring Russian aggression. This response included the deploying ‘battlegroups’, increasing military exercises and training, and enhancing air patrols over the Baltic states, Bulgaria, and Romania. Since the February 2022 invasion NATO has more than doubled the alliance force presence in Eastern Europe. There are now more than 130 allied fighter jets on high alert in the eastern part of the alliance and more than 200 allied ships from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean. In addition, the NATO Response Force has been activated for deployment.

High Level Visit. On Tuesday (Mar 15) the Prime Ministers of Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia took a train to Kyiv to pay a visit to Ukrainian President Zelensky and offer their support to the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion.

International Support . . . or Not. NATO countries continue to flow critical equipment to Ukraine to include anti-tank and air defense weapons, drones, ammunition, and fuel. Hungary has opted out of supporting Ukraine. The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a longtime Putin supporter and says that the country “must stay out of this war” and won’t support Ukraine with weapons. Israel is attempting to be neutral in this conflict and has failed to strike a just balance between morality and realpolitik.

Commentary

Video – Illusions of Peace . . . and Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended many assumptions about the post-Cold War period in Europe. Most thought another major war was not possible. However, the belief of how economic interdependence, a growing NATO, and the impact of the European Union would contribute to an era of enduring peace are now in question. Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University, explores the liberal illusions amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Hard Power Still Matters”, Belfer Center, Harvard University, March 10, 2022, YouTube, 5 minutes.

Cordesman on ‘Lessons of Ukraine’. One certainty that can be understood from the Ukrainian War is that Putin will be a dangerous man for as long as he is in power – long after the Ukraine War has ended. Anthony Cordesman writes that the United States now faces two superpowers and that confrontation not cooperation is the future. Read “U.S. Strategy and the Real Lessons of Ukraine”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 14, 2022.

Ignoring the Signs. Edward Lucas writes on how many national security experts cite the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea and two sections of eastern Ukraine as the first indication that Russia’s aspirations in eastern Europe constituted a danger. He argues that some ‘western experts’ are echoing the Kremlin’s version of history. Lucas says that 2007 is a more accurate date – with the cyberattack in Estonia, the 2008 war in Georgia, and more. “Fog of War”, Europe’s Edge, Center for European Policy Analysis, March 14, 2022.

End of Hybrid Warfare? Seth Cropsey of the Yorktown Institute has relegated Russian hybrid warfare to the graveyard. He cites the ‘failures’ of 2014 and 2022 in Ukraine as examples. Hmmm. Read his thoughts in “Wither Hybrid War”, Real Clear Defense, March 15, 2022. (Editor’s note: Not buying it.)

Podcast – Russia’s Military. Retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, a senior fellow at Harvard University, discusses Russia’s military capabilities and how the war in Ukraine is unfolding. WBUR.org, March 11, 2022, 10 mins.

Upcoming Events

Zelensky to Address U.S. Congress. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will virtually address Congress today (Wednesday). He will undoubtedly press the argument for a no-fly-zone and fighter aircraft. The event is scheduled for 9:00 am ET. “Five things to watch for during Zelensky’s address to Congress”, The Hill, March 15, 2022.

Wed, Mar 16 – Special Forces in Great Power Competition. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) will be the speaker in an upcoming session to be held online on Wednesday (Mar 16) about SF and GPC. Hosted by NSI, Inc.

Thu, Mar 17 – Countering Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. The topic will be what the key considerations for NATO allies and partners in assisting Ukraine. The panelists will discuss the sources of NATO unity and how the alliance will evolve as a result of the war. Truman National Security Project.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

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Photo: Ukrainian soldiers, courtesy of Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Ukraine War Update – March 15, 2022

SOF News — Tue, 15 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

Photo: Ukrainian soldiers assigned to 1st Battalion, 92nd Mechanized Brigade, participate in a platoon live-fire exercise at the Yavoriv military base, Ukraine. During the exercise the unit engaged targets from their BTR-4 armored personnel carrier before dismounting and assaulting the remaining objectives on foot. By U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Alexander Rector, Dec 6, 2017.
Video: Watch a video of a Ukrainian BTR-4 damage a Russian T-72B3M and destroy a BRM-1K.

Russian Campaign Update. The Russians have been, for several days, regrouping their forces, ironing out their logistics difficulties, and preparing for encircling Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities. It has been shelling several cities with artillery, rocket, and missile fire. The US DoD announced on Monday (14 Mar) that over 900 missiles have been used by the Russians in the 3-week long war. There has been limited advances on the ground. Ukraine has accused Russia of targeting its agricultural economy by destroying key agricultural machinery plants.

Russian Tanks and Their ‘Cages’. Some Russian soldiers have been adorning their tank cupolas with ‘cages’ that are meant to defeat or diminish the effect of anti-armor weapons. The strange structures most likely do nothing to defend against the anti-armor weapons. Western military analysts are referring to them as “cope cages” – meaning they are a coping mechanism to deal with the prospect of being blown up by a Javelin or NLAW. Read more in “Russian tanks in Ukraine are sprouting cages”, The Economist, March 14, 2022.

Ukrainian Defense. The armed forces of Ukraine continue to offer up stiff resistance but may be forced to do some consolidating and collapsing of their interior lines. Martial law has been extended for another month – going until mid-April.

Fight for the Skies. The Ukrainians continue their pleas for a NATO implemented no-fly zone and for the transfer of the 28 MiG-29s that Poland is offering up. The Ukrainians have at least 60 operational fixed-wing aircraft but are not putting the planes up into the sky very often. Some NATO ISR drones and other surveillance aircraft are in flight patterns very close to the border areas of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Presumably, there is some intelligence data being transferred to the Ukrainians. NATO fighter aircraft are constantly in the air and on guard – many being refueled while flying. Watch footage of a U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon get refueled mid-flight over Romanian airspace (DVIDS, Mar 12, 2022, 2 mins)

Jets, MANPADs, and Armed Drones. The fighter jets and close air support aircraft on both sides of the conflict have not been present in the skies over Ukraine as much as one would have thought. This is due to both sides having good air defense weapons. The Ukrainians have been employing the Stinger and other MANPADs very effectively. Watch a DVIDS video of U.S. Marines firing the Stinger during a training exercise in Norway (DVIDS, Mar 11, 2022, 1 min). Drones are playing a big role in the Ukraine War. Both sides are employing them. Ukraine has been using the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones very effectively. Read more in “Turkey deployed personnel to operate armed drones in targeting Russian military in Ukraine”, Nordic Monitor, March 14, 2022.

Podcast – Understanding No-Fly Zones. The Ukrainian president has been persistently calling for NATO to implement a no-fly zone over his country. Some people across Europe and in the United States support this. NATO and the U.S. are hesitant to take this course of action. A veteran USAF aviator who took part in several no-fly zone operations in the past discusses the practical requirements and challenges of implementing a no-fly zone and how those apply in the airspace over Ukraine. Podcast posted by Modern War Institute at West Point, March 10, 2022, 40 minutes.
https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-understanding-no-fly-zones/

No-Fly Zones. A Brief, Concise Explanation. Brad Taylor, a 23-year veteran of U.S. Army Special Forces, provides three reasons why a no-fly zone over Ukraine is not a good idea. “Ukraine’s No-Fly Zone isn’t as Simple as it Sounds”, Brad Taylor Books, March 13, 2022.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. The last several days have seen only incremental progress on the part of the Russian forces. The capital is projected to be able to hold out for a few more weeks. Longer if the supply lines from the west are not interdicted. The city received some shelling in the early morning hours of Tuesday (15 Mar).

Podcast – What Will the Battle of Kyiv Look Like? John Spencer, a student of urban warfare, argues that the battle for Kyiv is the only battle that matters in the Ukraine War. Listen to his perspective in this podcast posted by the Modern War Institute at West Point on March 14, 2022 (43 minutes).
https://mwi.usma.edu/what-will-the-battle-of-kyiv-look-like/

Sumy. This city on the Russian border in northeast Ukraine is almost surrounded by the Russians. Sumy has been receiving shelling and the Russians occupy the outskirts of the city and part of the city. There is an area southwest of the city that appears to be held by Ukrainian forces. The Russians have interrupted the flow of electricity and supply of humanitarian aid to the area. There are reports that an evacuation corridor period is set for Tuesday (Mar 15) but it is unknown if the Russians will actually allow it to take place.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The city is not quite encircled. It is the recipient of heavy artillery, rocket, and missile fire from the Russians. Social media is deluged with pictures and videos of the destruction by the Russians. Some reports say that around 600 houses have been destroyed by shelling. On Tuesday (15 Mar) the city was also hit by short-range Iskander ballistic missiles launched from Russia.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. Social media reported that at least 160 cars were able to leave the city on Monday (Mar 14). Food and water is extremely scarce. A humanitarian convoy loaded with 100 tons of food, water, clothes, and with evacuation buses couldn’t reach the city, blocked in Berdyansk. The Russians have denied entry for three days. The Mariupol City Council estimates that over 2,300 people have died in the city as of Monday (Mar 14).

Negotiations. A video conference between the Russians and Ukrainians took place on Monday (Mar 14), no word if any results came of it.

Refugees. As of March 14, over 2,950,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). There are almost 2 million displaced personnel within Ukraine. Read more on the humanitarian impact of the Ukraine War in the daily Situation Report of the United Nations Officer for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War published on Monday (Mar 14).

Cyber and Information Operations

Russia’s TikTok Warriors. An investigation by VICE News uncovered a coordinated campaign to pay TikTok influencers to post videos pushing pro-Kremlin narratives about the war in Ukraine. Campaigns are coordinated in secret Telegram channels that directs the influencers what to say, what videos to use, and when to post the video. Some of these influencers have over a million followers. Read more in this detailed report. “Russian TikTok Influencers Are Being Paid to Spread Kremlin Propaganda”, Vice.com, March 11, 2022.

Russia’s Cyber War Explored. Cyber security researchers are puzzled on the somewhat mild effectiveness of the cyber warfare conducted by Russia against Ukraine. They speculate that Russia is holding back the big cyber guns for the opportune moment to employ them. A wide ranging article explores these topics and more in “Why Russian Cyber Dogs Have Mostly Failed to Bark”, War on the Rocks, March 14, 2022.

Online Event – Cyber Law in Ukraine. Listen to some ‘cyber experts’ that met virtually at the U.S. Cyber Command Annual Legal Conference to discuss the international legal implications of cyber operations in the war between Russia and Ukraine. They explored a broad array of legal issues, including the use of force, sovereignty, cyber intervention, neutrality, co-belligerency, and the application of law-of-war targeting rules to cyber operations. (DVIDS, Mar 10, 2022, 35 mins)

Russia’s Foreign Agent Law. It is becoming more difficult to show dissent in Russia or to share true information about the Russian invasion. There are new rules, regulations, and laws that carry a heavy penalty if expressing opposition to Putin’s war. A revision to Russia’s law on “foreign agents” is going to make things worse. “Putin’s Revised Foreign Agent Law Could Enable Mass Repression”, Lawfare Blog, March 14, 2022.

World Response

Address to Congress. Ukrainian President Zelensky will be addressing the U.S. Congress on Wednesday (Mar 16). The video call will be on 9 a.m. ET. He will no doubt ask for a no-fly zone and MiG-29s among other things.

Germany’s Air Power. The German defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, has confirmed that Germany will equip its air force with F-35 jets built by the United States. Germany has done a policy upgrade to their defense posture – earmarking a lot more money to their armed forces.

China’s Weapons and Support to Russia? Much reporting has taken place over the last few days on Russia’s request to China for drones and other types military equipment. Tom Rogan, a national security observer, says that “China would appear to take on far more risks in providing Russia with military equipment than it would accrue benefits.” China’s strategic power lies in part in its economic interaction with Europe and the rest of the world. In addition, getting aligned with Russia during this sensitive time is going to affect China’s international prestige and political influence. China does not want to be regarded by Europe as an “ideological adversary and security threat.” “Why China is very unlikely to send military equipment to help Russia in Ukraine”, Washington Examiner, March 14, 2022.

And China’ Choice? One superpower has asked another superpower for assistance – and apparently part of the request is for ready-to-eat meals, which seems to be an odd request from a superpower. The food is one of several things on a Russian shopping list. Whether China responds is still an unknown. The Chinese might be trying to distance themselves from the conflict. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says that China may be key to resolving the conflict through its influence and stance on the Ukraine War. “Putin’s war and China’s choice”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 15, 2022.

General Info

Who is Putin? Listen to a discussion about the impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine and learn a little bit about the leader of the Russian people from Baroness Catherine Ashton and Ambassador Mark Green in this online video. Hindsight Up Front, Wilson Center, YouTube, March 14, 2022.

More Info Snippets. A Fox News reporter was injured while covering events in Ukraine. Correspondent Benjamin Hall was injured near Kyiv on Monday (Mar 14) and has been hospitalized. Over 40,000 (number vary based on news source) Syrians have registered to fight for Russia, as of Monday there are no reports of Syrians actually flying to Russia. There are rumors that U.S. President Biden will head to Europe next week to confer with NATO leaders, with a meeting date of March 23rd. The Washington Examiner is reporting that the leaders of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovenia will travel to Kyiv on Tuesday (Mar 15) to express the European Union’s “unequivocal support” for Ukraine. The U.S. and EU are trying to wean off Russian energy. The Ukraine War has interrupted key supply chains that will affect the worldwide economy. A US astronaut is nearing completion of his months long stay on the International Space Station – will the Russians bring him back to earth?

Commentary

Getting IW Right. Dr. Jonathan Schroden writes about the importance of integrating irregular warfare into the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS). Especially relevant now that we are experiencing the results of decades of Russian hybrid warfare and the prospect of U.S. special operations forces conducting unconventional warfare in eastern Europe and beyond. “Irregular Warfare: Getting IW Right in the Upcoming National Defense Strategy”, Modern War Institute at West Point, March 14, 2022.

Podcast – How Ukraine is Changing European Security. Two members of the Brookings Institution are interviewed on their thoughts on how the Ukraine War is reshaping Europe’s approach to security affairs. The Lawfare Blog, March 14, 2022, one hour.

The Ukrainian Disaster. The army that everyone thought was 10 feet tall seems a bit diminished after three weeks of war in Ukraine. The Chief of the Russian General Staff wrote a famous article in 2013 on how to overthrow governments in nearby countries. In 2014, Russia took over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. This became known as the “Gerasimov doctrine”. It was a good theory until 2022 – Gerasimov’s regime change ideas have failed dismally in Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Read the ‘why’ in “General Valery Gerasimov’s Great Ukrainian Disaster”, Real Clear Defense, March 14, 2022.

Proxy War. Some people are characterizing the war in Ukraine as a proxy war between the United States and Russian. A lot of people disagree with that ‘label’. Michel Wyss, of the Swiss Armed forces Military Academy, argues that a proxy war is already taking shape and warns of the many risks and dangers this may entail. “Is Europe Prepared for a Proxy War With Russia?”, Lawfare Blog, March 13, 2022.

Calling Putin’s Bluff. The Putin threat of nuclear war has prevented the U.S., NATO, and other nations from intervening with military force on Ukraine’s behalf. Kevin R. James argues that the stiff economic warfare against Russia may influence the course of events in the Ukraine War but that eventually Russia will prevail. And then the West will have to contend with an economically damaged but victorious Russia. The West will then have to face up to further aggression from Russia – and probably with military forces. So James argues that the time for action is now. “The case for direct military intervention in Ukraine”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), March 15, 2022.

Regime Change – In Russia. Putin’s decision to go to war has made him vulnerable to both popular and elite discontent in Russia. The economic downturn will erode away his support with the general population. As news filters out about the Ukraine disaster his support will fade even more. Within the inner circles of power concern will build on the road the Putin has taken the country down. It is not far-fetched to envision some sort of ‘regime change’ taking place over the next few months. “Regime Change, But for Whom”, by Philip Wasielewski, Small Wars Journal, March 14, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

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Photo: Ukrainian soldiers assigned to 1st Battalion, 92nd Mechanized Brigade, participate in a platoon live-fire exercise at the Yavoriv military base, Ukraine. During the exercise the unit engaged targets from their BTR-4 armored personnel carrier before dismounting and assaulting the remaining objectives on foot. By U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Alexander Rector – https://www.flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/38816284892/in/dateposted/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=64643052

Ukraine War Update – March 14, 2022

SOF News — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

Russian Campaign Update. The offensive by the Russians is continuing at a slow pace. The air campaign is still not coming up to speed. They are slowly massing their forces and appear to be using siege tactics to capture cities. Some regrouping of their forces is taking place while the logistics system pushes supplies up to the forward units. They are conducting a lot of shelling with artillery, rocket, and missile fire causing a lot of structural damage to cities and many civilian deaths. They made limited gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk region. Russian reinforcements are being moved to Ukraine from various locations in Russia.

The mayor of Melitopol was kidnapped by Russians two days ago. A pro-Kremlin element has announced the broadcasting of Russian TV within the city.

Belarus? A lot of attention is focused on Ukraine’s northern neighbor. The Russians have launched air, missile, and ground attacks from Belarus. There is speculation that Belarus may enter the conflict on behalf of Russia. There is also concern that either Russian or Belarus (or both) troops will move south from Brest, Belarus into western Ukraine to interdict the west to east supply routes carrying weapons, supplies, food, and fuel into the interior of Ukraine.

Fight for the Skies. The Russians have started to hit targets in western Ukraine using long-range missiles that are most likely fired from Russia along the borders of Ukraine. Neither the Russian or Ukrainian air force are flying a lot of sorties over Ukraine. Both sides have a significant air defense network setup that makes flying fixed and rotary wing aircraft problematic.

Maritime Activities. There has been no significant naval activity in recent days. Russia has cut off Ukraine from international trade via the Black Sea. The Russian fleet has established a blockade of all of Ukraine’s ports. There is a Russian amphibious force that could land troops in the Odessa region.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. The city has been under shelling attacks that are increasing over time. The Russians are concentrated in the suburbs in the west, northwest, and east.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The Ukrainians are putting up stiff resistance. However, Kharkiv may soon find itself cut off from the interior of Ukraine and unable to be resupplied with ammunition, food, and fuel.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The Russians have captured the eastern outskirts of the city and are making slow progress in the northern outskirts of the city. There is very little food or water left for those residents trapped in the city. About 400,000 residents are stuck in the city. Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) warns that people of Mariupol may soon be dying of dehydration, hunger, and lack of access to essential medicines.

Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Although under attack the city has not fallen to the Russians.

Missle Attacks in Western Ukraine. The Yavoriv Military Range near the western city of Lviv suffered up to 8 missile strikes in the early morning hours of Sunday (Mar 13). The attack was 20 kilometers away from the Polish border and 30 kilometers northwest of Lviv. Initial reports on early Sunday (Mar 13) was that there were at least nine are dead and 57 more were injured. Some more recent updates say 35 people died and 134 were wounded. The Russians had warned that the western Ukraine supply lines carrying military material and equipment from westerns nations would be “legitimate targets”. The Russians claimed that it killed 180 ‘mercenaries’ in the missile strikes.

Negotiations. Talks were taking place between Ukrainian and Russian officials on Sunday (Mar 13) with a particular focus on the besieged city of Mariupol. The negotiations are unlikely to result in any position developments. On Monday morning a video conference between the two sides was scheduled to take place.

Refugees. As of March 12, over 2,700,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). Almost two million internally displaced people are in western Ukraine. A number of cities have established humanitarian evacuation corridors where thousands are heading westward every day.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War published on Sunday (Mar 13).

General Information

Arrests of Intelligence Officials in Moscow. Several senior intelligence officials have been arrested and removed from office in the past few days. President Putin is seeking to blame the security services for the stalled invasion of Ukraine. The head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch was arrested along with his deputy. A week ago Putin dismissed several of his senior generals. “Kremlin arrests FSB chiefs in fallout from Ukraine chaos”, The Sunday Times, March 12, 2022.

Is Putin Sane? The fact that Russia has thousands of nuclear warheads has national security gurus questioning the mental state of President Putin. A rational opponent can be deterred or maybe negotiated with. An irrational person could tend to brinkmanship – something that is a bit scary when that person has nuclear weapons at his disposal. “The Question the World is Asking: Is Vladimir Putin Rational?”, 1945, March 13, 2022. Learn more about Putin in this video – “Vladimiar Putin – KGB Agent”, by Mark Felton Productions on YouTube, March 13, 2022, 9 minutes. And more on Putin by an expert on Stalin in “The Weakness of the Despot”, The New Yorker, March 11, 2022.

US Journalist Shot By Russians. Brett Renaud, a 51-years-old reporter, was shot dead by Russians near Kyiv, Ukraine on Sunday, March 13, 2022. He died instantly from a gunshot wound to his neck. At one time Renaud was a contributor to New York Times. Two other journalists were wounded in the attack. “US journalist shot dead by Russian forces near Kyiv”, The Explainer, March 13, 2022.

The Coming Resistance

DIY Drone Warfare. The ability to build a drone to use against an aggressor (occupier) is just a few Google clicks away. For years Russia-backed separatists have weaponized hobby drones in eastern Ukraine. Other terrorist groups have done the same, capitalizing on the technological improvements in the field. A recent article about drones describes the basic core characteristics of small drones: design type, range, payload, engine and power source, and guidance method. “The Stark Reality of DIY Drone Warfare”, OSINT Editor, July 7, 2020.

Biden Admin Nixed SOF UW Training for Ukraine. The administration put cold water on a plan for an increase in the number of U.S. special operations forces (SOF) to conduct unconventional warfare training for Ukrainian soldiers in the months preceding the Russian invasion. The Biden administration didn’t want to provoke Russia. There was a plan to add a few hundred SOF personnel to those already in Ukraine. Senior military officials say the idea was ‘stopped cold’ over the administration’s worries about escalation. U.S. Special Forces and other SOF units have been conducting training in Ukraine since 2014. “Pentagon push to send more trainers to Ukraine was scrapped in December amid White House fears of provoking Russia”, Politico, March 13, 2022.

Cyber and Information Operations

Russia’s Blanket on the Truth. The Russian population, for the most part, believes that Russian troops are in Ukraine to save the Ukrainian people from Nazis, protect ethnic Russians, and dismantle sites where nuclear and chemical weapons are being manufactured. The Russian government has the media locked down so alternative news is hard to come by. “Misinformation colors how Russians are seeing the Ukrainian war”, The Hill, March 11, 2022.

Smartphone War. The landscape of war has shifted ever so slightly now that billions of citizens are in the digital age – linked by a device that is constantly in their hands. “The smartphone mindset is shaping understandings of secrecy, intelligence and war.” Read more on this topic in “Smartphones, digital citizens and open secrets in Russia – Ukraine war”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 14, 2022.

Cyber and Arm-Chair Warriors. The number of cyberattacks being waged by – and on behalf of – Russia and Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion is “staggering”. Some 400,000 multinational hackers have volunteered to help counter Russia’s digital attacks. Russia’s cyber warriors are expected to retaliate against countries and companies that are assisting Ukraine. “For the first time in history anyone can join a war: Volunteers join Russia-Ukraine cyber fight”, CNBC, March 14, 2022.

Russia’s Digital Iron Curtain. President Putin is struggling to control the narrative about his war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has already moved to block Facebook and Twitter. However, a growing number of Russian internet users are managing to access outside sources and circumvent the restrictions. Some are turning to specialized circumvention technology, the use of virtual private networks (VPNs), and encrypted messaging apps. One of the fastest growing apps in use in Russia is Signal. “Russian internet users are learning how to beat Putin’s internet crackdown”, CNN.com, March 12, 2022.

World Response

Germany and Defense. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia caused a drastic shift in national security policy for the German people. The most immediate and important change is the increased spending on defense programs. Not only will this be used for weapons systems but it will also usher in changes in bureaucracy, doctrine, organization, and training. Read more in “Waking a Sleeping Giant: What’s Next for German Security Policy?”, War on the Rocks, March 9, 2022.

India’s Embassy. One nation has decided to move their embassy staff out of Ukraine to Poland. The government said that it was a temporary measure.

Air Travel Rerouted. The closure of European Union (EU) airspace to Russian airliners has caused Aeroflot and other carriers based in Russia to cancel or reroute the way aircraft travel. Russia has responded with closures to EU aircraft and that too has caused some big changes in routes. Some flights now have between one hour to four hours of extra flight time – which, of course, adds to the operating expenses. Some of the longer routes will cost carriers up to $12,000 extra per hour. (Business Insider, Mar 12, 2022).

Ukraine’s Foreign Legion. While some people are filling up the trains to head west out of Ukraine, there are some who are riding the trains east. There are thousands of men from around the world flowing into Ukraine to help stop the Russians. “Ukraine’s New Foreign Legion Takes the Fight to Russian Forces”, The Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2022. (subscription) See also, “Explainer: Is it legal for foreigners to fight for Ukraine?”, Reuters, March 14, 2022.

Russia Asks China for Some Help. News reports indicate that Chinese weapons will soon be flowing into Ukraine for the benefit of Russian forces. Drones are very likely one of the weapons systems to be provided. (The Washington Post, mar 13, 2022) (subscription) See also “Russia asks China for military and economic aid to help in Ukraine”, Axios, March 13, 2022.

Commentary

Ukraine – Hard Choices Ahead. The Ukrainians are experiencing tactical success on the battlefield. What remains to be seen is if they can translate this tactical success into operational and strategic success. Ultimately, the Russians, with a numerical advantage in personnel, tanks, aircraft, and other categories, are going to be able to grind the Ukrainian resistance down. At some point, the Ukrainian forces in the east may need to draw back to the Dnieper River or get cut off – with an interruption in their lines of supply. Kyiv is on the verge of encirclement and reinforcements are needed to prevent this – or it will be cut off from its lines of supply coming across the western border. And, of course, western Ukraine needs to be defended, or all of Ukraine loses the supplies coming from NATO countries. So, rather than trying to fight the invader everywhere, tough choices must be made by Ukraine to conserve forces to stay in the fight. “Losing and Winning at the Same Time: Understanding Russia’s war against Ukraine”, The Cove, Australian Army, March 13, 2022.

No Fly Zone? Want to put U.S. or allied aircraft over Ukraine? Answer these questions first posed by Peter W. Singer in “The ‘No-Fly Zone Test”, Defense One, March 13, 2022.

Western Strategy for Ukraine. Eliot A. Cohen outlines the three objectives the U.S.-led coalition of liberal-democratic states should pursue in “The Strategy That Can Defeat Putin”, The Atlantic, March 14, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

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Photo: Ukraine Postage Stamp: “Snake Island”. The Ukraine postal service recently had an artist competition for new stamps. This stamp by artist Boris Groh was a winner. Snake Island was the location of a small Ukrainian Coast Guard station in the Black Sea that was told to surrender by the Russian navy. The epic response by the small Ukrainian garrison was “Russian warship, go **** yourself”.

Ukraine Threat Update – March 13, 2022

SOF News — Sun, 13 Mar 2022 06:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

Russian Campaign Update. Russia continues to occupy three major Ukrainian cities – Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdyansk located in southern Ukraine. Mariupol on the coast of the Sea of Azov is encircled. The Russians have made some limited progress advancing from the east to Kyiv. Some small gains were made moving north from Crimea along the western bank of the Dnieper River. The Ukrainian counterattacks and ambushes against the Russian lines of communication in northeast Ukraine is hindering the logistics effort. Some news reports indicate that Putin has fired some of his top generals and others say that high ranking members of the intelligence community have been arrested.

Russian Wounded. Many wounded Russian soldiers are being evacuated to Belarus. There has been a constant flow of convoys of ambulances in the border area heading north. They are being taken to a hospital in Mazyr, a city in southern Belarus. Read more in “Russia Evacuates Wounded Soldiers to Belarus as Its Casualties in Ukraine War Rise”, The Wall Street Journal.

Russian Dead. The bodies of dead Russian soldiers are being brought by truck to Mazyr, Belarus and then sent home to Russia by train or plane. The morgues in Homel and Naroulia are also filled up. U.S. officials have estimated that several thousand Russian soldiers have been killed so far in the weeks-long war. “Bodies of Russian Soldiers Filling Up Belarusian Morgues, Residents Say”, Radio Free Europe, March 13, 2022.

Advance From Brest? There are indications that the Russians and / or the Belarus might push southward into western Ukraine from Brest, Belarus to interrupt the lines of communications running east – west across Ukraine. This would cut off supplies of weapons from western nations transiting across the border toward the central part of Ukraine in the vicinity of Lviv.

Fight for the Skies. The Russians are flying a couple of hundred sorties a day. However, most of them are not over Ukrainian airspace and are lobbing long-range missiles from inside Russian airspace. This is due to the air defense capabilities of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are flying infrequently because of the the Russian surface-to-air missiles that are in many locations of Ukraine. (Defense One, Mar 11, 2022).

Maritime Activities. No significant maritime activities have taken place in the past few days.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. The Russian army is in the northern outskirts of the city and control the Antonov / Hostomel airport located to the northwest of the Kyiv. The city currently has electricity, gas, food, and water. There is enough food for the 2 million residents who have stayed in the city to last two weeks. The situation on the ground around Kyiv remains somewhat static. (view SITMAP of Kyiv).

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. It is not yet encircled and the Ukrainians are putting up a strong defense. There is the possibility that Kharkiv could be cut off from the center of Ukraine – losing the ability to be resupplied.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The mayor of the city says it can hold out until March 17th. The Ukrainian military is in no position to relieve the city as it is committed to defending too many other areas. Russian forces advanced into the eastern outskirts of Mariupol on Saturday. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted by Russian forces.

Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Odessa is secure for now and the risk of an amphibious assault seems to have subsided for the moment.

Western Ukraine. The Yavoriv Military Range near the western city of Lviv suffered up to 8 missile strikes in the early morning hours of Sunday (Mar 13). The attack on the International Peacekeeping and Security Center is 20 kilometers away from the Polish border and 30 kilometers northwest of Lviv. At least nine are dead and 57 more were injured. This is the most western attack since the Russians invaded Ukraine. Reports indicate that the missiles were launched from Saratov, Russia. (The New York Times, Mar 13, 2022). (subscription)

Refugees. Currently 2.5 million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries to the west of Ukraine. There are about 1.8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) who have fled to western Ukraine. The evacuation route from the city of Sumy in northeast Ukraine was open on March 12th, with about 8,000 people able to flee.

Situation Maps. The Institute for the Study of War provides a daily map and assessment update. The War Mapper has posted its SITMAP for March 13, 2022.

General Information

Russian Intel Officers Arrested. After a dismal two week performance in Ukraine, Putin has suddenly launched another surprise attack. This time against the Fifth Service of the Federal Security Service (FSB). The leadership has been placed under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of Russia’s non-stuttering invasion. The Service of Operative Information and International Relations Service has seemed to have told Putin what he wanted to hear instead of what he needed to hear. “Putin Places Spies Under House Arrest”, Center for European Policy Analysis, March 11, 2022.

Russian Logistics. Alex Vershinin, a retired U.S. Army LtCol with time in armor units, describes some of the logistics challenges that Russia is experiencing at the moment. He says that the initial thrust into Ukraine sucked up the fuel and supplies that the invading forces had on hand. But he believes in time the logistics system will catch up . . . especially once the railheads are established within Ukraine. “Russia’s Logistical Problems May Slow Down Russia’s Advance – But They Are Unlikely To Stop It”, Modern War Institute at West Point, March 10, 2022.

Video – Learning to Use the NLAW. In Kyiv, instructors are giving last minute training to members of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade in preparation for the defense of the capital city. Watch this video of the training on the NLAW. “Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training on Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons”, Radio Free Europe, March 11, 2022, 5 minutes.

Javelin Anti-Tank Missile. One of the more potent anti-armor weapons is the Javelin anti-tank missile. The weapon locks onto the target’s thermal picture. It has a ‘fire and forget’ feature that improves the crew’s survivability. Read an excellent article that provides a detailed description and graphics on the Javelin. “What to know about the role Javelin antitank missiles could play in Ukraine’s fight against Russia”, The Washington Post, March 12, 2022.

Russian Cluster Bombs. Civilian deaths in the cities of Ukraine are climbing daily as a result of indiscriminate firing by the Russians of artillery, rockets, and missiles into residential areas. One of the more deadly weapons are the cluster munitions – a type of weapon that will deploy a large number of smaller sub-munitions over a target. More than 100 countries have banned their use and signed up to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. “These are the Cluster Munitions Documented by Ukrainian Civilians”, Bellingcat, March 11, 2022.

Serbia – Staying Friends. Russians wanting to travel can fly direct from Moscow to Belgrade. There are about 15 flights a week by Ari Serbia. Travelers can then travel onward to their final destination from Belgrade. Top destinations are France, Switzerland, Cyprus, and Italy.

Helping From Afar. California’s National Guard has been training the Ukrainian Army, Air Force, and other elements of its military since the breakup of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. It has done this through the State Partnership Program. Now it is continuing to assist in a makeshift emergency operations center at the CA NG HQs in Sacramento. (Wall Street Journal, Mar 11, 2022) (subscription)

SF Trains for Big Fight in Arctic. Members of the 10th and 19th Special Forces Group are participating in Exercise ARCTIC EDGE 2022 in Alaska. The exercise is a train up for the Green Berets should they be employed in a winter or arctic environment . . . presumably against Russian forces. Read more in “US Military Arctic Training Sends Message to Russians”, Newsweek, March 11, 2022.

Cyber and Information Operations

Russia and China – Sharing Lies. The men who lead Russian and China have been spending some time nurturing their relationship. This deepening friendship is driven in part by a perception that the United States is constraining their interests. So naturally they are collaborating on the narratives they supply to their domestic audiences and to the world at large. David Bandurski, the co-director of the China Media Project, provides the details in “China and Russia are joining forces to spread disinformation”, Tech Stream, Brookings Institute, March 11, 2022.

Ukrainian Journalists. Life has changed dramatically for the reporters in Ukraine. They have adapted their work practices and location. Read more in “What It’s Like for Ukrainian Journalists Reporting on the War in Their Country”, Time, March 6, 2022.

Commentary

From Cold War to Hot War. George Beebe, a former chief of CIA’s Russia’s analysis team, believes we could very well see ourselves in conflict with Russia. He believes that diplomacy is the only way to end the Ukraine crisis. Unless we follow that path he argues we are unlikely to find ourselves in a new Cold War. We may instead be in a very hot one. “Raging Toward the Abyss with Russia”, National Interest, March 11, 2022.

Supplying Weapons to Ukraine. There has been a lot of debate about the supplying of weapons to Ukraine by NATO and other countries of the world. Some critics worry that this support violates the law of neutrality – that it might be an act of war. A couple of law professors take a keen eye to this question and provide us with an answer in “Supplying Arms to Ukraine is Not an Act of War”, Just Security, March 12, 2022.

The Big Picture. Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at the nonprofit research organization – Center for Naval Analyses – is interviewed on the recent modernization of the Russian army, the false expectations of the Russian leadership, and the likely end result of the war. He says that a series of strategic missteps has hampered Putin’s campaign. “The Russian Military’s Debacle in Ukraine”, The New Yorker, March 11, 2022.

Keep the Weapons Flowing. Stephen Biddle, a professor at Columbia University, provides the argument for continuing the transfer of weapons to the Ukraine military. While it may not stop Russia from occupying Ukraine it will certainly make it costly for them. And it will raise the cost of Russian aggression in other countries. “Arming Ukraine Is Worth the Risk”, Foreign Affairs, March 11, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

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Photo: By Vitaly V. Kuzmin – http://vitalykuzmin.net/?q=node/410, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikipedia. The TOS-1 MRLS Thermobaric weapon.