The Syrian conflict has been ongoing for over a decade. It began as a civil war between the Syrian government and opponents of the Assad regime. The opposition was comprised of several different groups of varying ideological persuasions. Over time, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), grew and acquired a significant amount of Syrian territory in central Syria.

Fighting ISIS and Supporting the SDF. The United States has been involved in the conflict since 2014; beginning first with air strikes against a Islamic State army that had captured much of Syria. Some airstrikes were conducted by the U.S. against Syrian targets associated with the employment of chemical weapons. In time, a sizeable element of U.S. special operations forces (augmented by enabling units) were deployed into Syria to assist the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF) and other partner units in its fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The SDF were composed mostly of Kurds living in the northeast region of Syria. Over the course of several years ISIS was finally defeated. Some U.S. SOF are still there today, continuing to counter groups like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State and providing support to the SDF.

Map from Congressional Research Service, Fall 2022.

Foreign Presence. Five countries are currently operating in or have a military presence on the ground in Syria. Russia and Iran are assisting the Syrian regime. Turkey has a presence along the Turkish-Syrian border and bleeding into northern Syria. It supports some opposition groups as well as mounts attacks on the Syrian Democratic Front. The United States is supporting the SDF and a few other smaller Syrian groups; mostly located in eastern and northeastern Syria. The Israeli Air Force has conducted air attacks on Syrian, Iranian, and Hezbollah targets.

Conflict Stalemate. The current conflict is considered a stalemate by most military observers although the situation has certainly shifted to the favor of the Syrian regime. The Syrian government and its partners, including Russian and Iran, are opposed by various opposition and extremist groups that are reduced to occupying small regions of Syria. The military front lines have not shifted much in the past few years. While Syria might be able to end the civil war through military means, the underlying conditions for the conflict would continue to persist. The SDF maintains its presence and control in the Kurdish region of Syria.

Islamic State. Although this organization has been defeated and no longer holds territory it poses a threat to Syria and U.S. interests in the region. It still exists as an insurgency and has made inroads into the several humanitarian camps housing refugees. Over 10,000 ISIS fighters are in detention – held in prisons manned by the SDF.

Al Qaeda. Militants aligned with Al Qaeda are using Syria as a safe haven to coordinate their activities and plan operations that could be conducted outside of Syria. Most of the Al Qaeda members are located in the Idlib region in northwest Syria.

Map from Fall 2022 Lead Inspector General Report on OIR.

U.S. Presence. As of November 2022 the United States is estimated to have approximately 900 troops in Syria supporting local partners like the SDF. These troops are located in areas controlled by the SDF and in the small enclave of Al Tanf. The U.S. units are advising, assisting, and enabling partner forces in Syria to counter the Islamic State. From time to time the Department of Defense announces the killing or capture of high-level terrorist targets in Syria by SOF elements or with the use of air strikes.

Current U.S. Activities. The United States has limited policy goals (and options) in Syria. The current effort is ensuring that the Islamic State and Al Qaeda do not become stronger than they are now. The U.S. is assisting the Syrian Democratic Front, providing humanitarian aid to displaced populations, and assisting in stabilization activities.

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Photo: Green Berets wait in a M-ATV Special Forces Vehicle for a gun truck from the Maghaweir al-Thowra (MaT) partner force to join their joint patrol mission near At-Tanf Garrison, Syria, April 29, 2020. Coalition forces train and advise the MaT in southern Syria in pursuit of the enduring defeat of Daesh and to set conditions for regional stability. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. William Howard)

References:

Operation Inherent Resolve, Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress, Fall 2022, PDF, 112 pages. https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/01/2003106275/-1/-1/1/OIR_Q4_SEP22_GOLD_508.PDF

Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response, Congressional Research Service (CRS), November 8, 2022, PDF, 32 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33487

On March 23, 2019 the Pentagon announced the physical defeat of the Daesh caliphate in Syria. Over 110,000 square miles were liberated and 7.7 million people freed from Daesh oppression. The Syrian Democratic Front was assisted by U.S. airpower, ISR, and special operations forces in its defeat of the Islamic State fighters. The SDF had finally captured Baghouz – the last Islamic State physical enclave in Syria.

The Special Operations Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (SOJTF-OIR) published this story below on March 18, 2020 summarizing the rise and fall of the Daesh in Iraq and Syria. The article details the final battle for the last ISIS enclave of Baghouz where the SDF defeated the ISIS fighters in their last piece of physical terrain.

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“At the height of their power, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, now referred to as Daesh, operated in 18 different countries and had an annual budget of $1 billion with an estimated 30,000 members. They conducted ground attacks on both government forces and any other force that opposed them. Their goal: to establish a so-called caliphate in the region.

On Aug. 7th, 2014, the U.S.-led coalition launched airstrikes against Daesh. On March 23rd, 2019, the Pentagon announced the physical defeat of the Daesh caliphate in Syria. Over 110,000 square miles were liberated. Approximately 7.7 million people were freed from Daesh oppression. In Baghouz, Syria, where the final battle took place, a yellow flag was flown atop a building by U.S.-backed Syrian forces as they celebrated their victory over Daesh.

Founded in 1999 under the name Jamāʻat al-Tawḥīd wa-al-Jihād and changing to Islamic State of Iraq in 2006, and with an allegiance to al-Qaeda, the oppressive presence of Daesh in the region grew once Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi came to power in 2010. Al-Baghdadi became involved with Daesh while detained in Camp Bucca in the early 2000’s. When released from detainment, he quickly rose in prominence by being directly involved in the violent atrocities conducted by Daesh.

Throughout the next several years with al-Baghdadi as head, Daesh seized control of several major cities in Iraq. Kidnappings, mass murder, and extortion were common crimes committed by Daesh members. By declaring the creation of a so-called caliphate, Daesh gave al-Baghdadi self-proclaimed authority over the Muslims of the world. Their declaration as a caliphate was criticized and disputed by Middle Eastern governments. They were officially declared a terrorist organization by both Iraq and Syria, along with many other nations of the world.

Coalition troops were sent into Iraq to support the defeat of Daesh. In October of 2014, this combined effort was given the name Operation Inherent Resolve. Along with Iraqi and Syrian forces, over 30 countries combined together for the sole mission of defeating Daesh. The Combined Joint Task Force- Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) worked with partner forces to free the nearly 8 million people under the control of Daesh.

By mid-2015, Kurdish fighters expelled Daesh out of towns in Syria and reclaimed military bases that had fallen under Daesh control. In late 2015, Iraqi forces took control of Ramadi from Daesh and then Fallujah just six months later. After several years of combined assaults, Daesh was quickly losing control of central Iraq.

Mosul was retaken from Daesh control toward the end of 2016. Mosul was considered by Daesh as their capital city in the two years since it fell under their control. By early 2017, Daesh had lost all control of central Iraq. At the end of July 2017, it was reported that Daesh had lost an estimated 73% of the territory they had once controlled in Iraq. By the end of the year, the Iraqi Army announced all of Iraq had been liberated and their people freed from Daesh oppression.

On March 23rd, 2019, the Syrian Democratic Forces announced that Daesh had lost its final stronghold in Syria, bringing an end to their so-called caliphate. On Oct. 26th, 2019, during a raid conducted by U.S. forces, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in Northwest Syria.

CJTF-OIR continues its pursuit of Daesh remnants to this day. The remains still linger, but with few resources and the inability to project power to the same degree as they did in 2012, they have very little influence in the region. The continued training of partner forces within the scope of the Defeat Daesh mission is now the focus of Operation Inherent Resolve, along with preventing Daesh from re-emerging in the region and recruiting members to fight for them once again.

Iraq is working hard to establish a stable, unified government. After being devastated by the threat of Daesh, the Iraqi people are primed and ready for this transition, moving closer to being a free and sovereign nation withstanding against any third-party interference. Its military is ready to take a more active role in the safety and security of Iraq, and demonstrate its ability to protect the people and interests of Iraq.

The last of Daesh’s territory in Syria crumbled at the battle of Baghouz. The SDF were the critical land force in this offensive and through their significant sacrifice eliminated the last territorial stronghold held by Daesh. By taking a disciplined, incremental approach to the battle the SDF were able to spare the large civilian population that Daesh fighters used as human shields in the densely populated area. The tactical effectiveness of their approach mixed with the fair treatment of civilians showed the SDF to be an honorable and powerful fighting force.

After over a month of fighting, The SDF declared final victory over Daesh on March 23, 2019, marking the end of Daesh controlled territory in Syria. Their legacy: millions of people have been liberated from Daesh’s barbaric cruelty and fear, and over 900 Daesh fighters surrendering by the end of the battle.

In the last year, the role of the Coalition has been to work alongside partner forces in Iraq and Syria in preventing the remnants of Daesh from returning to power, and to keep the extremist ideologies of Daesh suppressed. The destruction of Daesh provides partners the space and time to recover from the physical and emotional damage that has been left behind in their wake.

The lessons of the rise and fall of Daesh have shown the international community the need to remain vigilant and prepared, to swiftly respond to any threat by third-party actors or violent extremist organizations. The fortitude of the Iraqi and Syrian people and the continued Coalition support of our partner forces, what was once darkened by Daesh, is rejuvenated with the aspirations of a free people.”

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The above article is from “The Defeat of Daesh: One Year Later”, Special Operations Joint Task force – Operation Inherent Resolve (SOJTF-OIR), by Specialist Brian Redmer, March 18, 2020.
https://www.dvidshub.net/news/365422/defeat-daesh-one-year-later-nemabuna-reva-dais-salek-pase

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Top Photo: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) provide security for a Coalition mortar crew providing fires support to SDF against ISIS locations in Operation Round Up taking place in the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) in Syria. (photo by SSG Timothy Koster, CJTF-OIR, May 13, 2018).

A report by CNA Analysis & Solutions provides a study of past and current use of proxy warfare by the United States. It examines case studies of the use of proxy forces by the U.S., identifies several common themes, and then outlines a broad set of guidelines for senior policy makers in the future use of proxy forces. The report then goes on to discuss implications for U.S. special operations forces.

Proxy warfare is defined as when a “. . . major power instigates or plays a major role in supporting and directing a party to a conflict but does only a small portion of the actual fighting itself.” The use of proxies in a conflict transfers many of the risks and costs onto the proxy. The United States has a lot of experience in employing proxies in the past and continues to use proxies in current conflicts.

This CNA paper aims to assist “. . . senior civilian and military leaders to assess US capabilities for conducting proxy war, for evaluating costs, risks, and benefits, and for developing policies and programs that will promote US national interests abroad.”

The first part of the report examines four case studies. Two in the past and two that are currently in progress.

• “Secret War” in Laos
• Contras in Central America
• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria
• African Union Mission in Somalia

Topics explored in each case study include the U.S. objectives, proxy objectives, nature of support, and impact of the use of the proxy. Common factors are identified which are then analyzed to identify key themes across the case studies.

The key themes identified, there are seven of them, help to develop eight rules of thumb for policy makers and decision makers in the use of proxy forces in the future.

The concluding paragraph of the Executive Summary provides an abstract of the purpose of the paper:

“Although there are pitfalls and hazards associated with using proxy forces, the underlying logic of employing them – their relatively low cost, their disposability, and their deniability – suggest that their continued use will prove to be an attractive foreign policy option for the United States and its rivals and adversaries. Cast in that light, it is our hope that these rules of thumb will help the US to most effectively employ proxy forces in the future.”

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Proxy warfare has been used by the United States and other nations throughout history. The use of proxies by the United States in future international security environments will very likely grow. U.S. special operations forces will continue to play a prominent role in proxy warfare.

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“The Cheapest Insurance in the World”? The United States and Proxy Warfare,
by William Rosenau and Zack Gold, CNA Analysis & Solutions,
July 2019, 80 pages.
https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/DRM-2019-U-020227-1Rev.pdf

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Photo: Hmong Guerrilla Company, Phou Vieng, 1961, Wikimedia Commons.

The Department of Defense Office of Inspector General has posted the quarterly report to Congress on OIR. The report covers the period of April 1, 2019 to June 30, 2019.

The report is entitled Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve | Quarterly Report to the United States Congress | April 1, 2019 – June 30, 2019. It covers the overseas contingency operation to combat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and summarizes the quarter’s key events.

The report finds that ISIS is continuing its transition from a territory-holding force to an insurgency in Syria. It says that ISIS has solidified its insurgent capabilities in Iraq. ISIS is conducting suicide attacks, assassinations, abductions, and arson of crops in both countries.

ISIS personnel strength appears to be, according to the report, about 16,000 total – within Iraq and Syria. Some of these personnel are referred to as ‘foreign fighters’. In addition, ISIS has reestablished its financial networks in both countries. The jihadist group also continues to utilize an extensive worldwide social media effort for recruitment of fighters and to maintain and enhance support.

Syria Update

U.S. Reduction in Forces. The partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria (known as Operation Deliberate Resolve) has decreased the support available to partner forces (SDF and other smaller groups). This withdrawal is taking place at a time that the SDF need additionally trained personnel and more equipment to defeat the ISIS insurgency. The nature of the conflict – now an insurgency – has changed the type of training and equipment needed by the SDF.

Coalition Assistance Requested. The U.S. is seeking increased coalition support to offset the reduction in U.S. forces. The U.S. has requested assistance from 30 other countries; the UK and France have agreed to help. Germany said ‘not so much’. Although not cited in the report, it is estimated that there are about 1,000 U.S. military personnel in Syria.

U.S. SOF. The bulk of these troops are likely members of U.S. Army Special Forces with their attached enablers. The SF teams are part of the Special Operations Joint Task Force – OIR – which is a component of the Combined Joint Task Force – OIR. One of the missions of the SOJTF-OIR is to perform “. . . partnered training, equipping, and reinforcing of the SDF to enable the SDF to conduct counterinsurgency operations.”

In addition, U.S. forces assist with security during raids of ISIS members or facilitators as well as in some detention operations. Other U.S. ground and air assets are also employed in support of the SDF.

SDF Needs More Assistance. The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces are unable to sustain long-term operations against IS jihadists. The SDF is limited in personnel, equipment, and intelligence to confront the ‘resurgent cells’ of IS. In particular, it needs to further develop its human-based intelligence capabilities. There is the possibility, if further U.S. cutbacks take place, that the SDF may look for partnerships with Russia or the Syrian regime.

IDPs. The camps that host thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) – the two largest are Rukban and al Hol – are lacking basic services. The al Hol camp is a security concern due to the 45,000 ISIS family members and supporters that reside there. The U.S. is urging other nations to repatriate the ISIS foreign fighters and supporters – for security and humanitarian reasons. ISIS has established cells within the al Hol camp to spread its ideology as well as aid in recruitment. IDPs are prevented from leaving the camps to return home due to ongoing lawlessness and violence elsewhere in Syria.

Detained ISIS Fighters. With the defeat of the ‘territorial’ Caliphate the SDF captured thousands of ISIS fighters. There are about 10,000 detained fighters – 2,000 classified as ‘foreign fighters’. They are held in ‘pop-up prisons’ in northeast Syria. Most countries are reluctant to repatriate their citizens who have been captured by the SDF. This is putting a strain on the SDF and Kurdish administration.

Uncertainty. Not addressed in the DoD IG report is the political uncertainty of whether or not the United States is in Syria for the long haul. There is the possibility that the U.S. president would turn Syria over to the third party countries currently involved – Turkey, Iran, and Russia. In fact, several months ago he said that Turkey could finish off ISIS. This followed his announcement in December that the U.S. would withdraw all forces from Syria. Certainly the statements and ‘tweets’ of the U.S. president has caused deep concern within the SDF and YPG.

Iraq Update

IS Insurgency Continues. ISIS has regrouped in provinces north and west of Baghdad. IS has reorganized its leadership and has established safe havens in rural Sunni-majority areas. The strength of IS in Iraq got bumped up as a result of fighters fleeing the impending defeat of IS in the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) in Syria this past spring. As ISIS saw the future demise of the ‘territorial’ Caliphate it began its transformation into an insurgency.

ISF. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are still having difficulty getting on top of the IS insurgency that exists in Iraq. The ISF can conduct offensive operations to ‘clear’ an area of insurgents – but they lack the capability to ‘hold’ these areas. So the typical ISF operation, while successful, is a ‘short-term gain’ with a minimal effect. This is especially true in some of the more remote areas of Iraq – such as the Makhmour Mountains in Ninewa province and the Jazeera Desert in Anbar province. So the insurgents flow back in to the ‘cleared’ areas as soon as the security forces depart.

Diminished ISR Assets. The ISF has seen its organic ISR assets decrease by 50%. In addition, some U.S. ISR platforms have been diverted to monitor Iranian activity.

Iraqi Government Struggling. Politics and other factors are hindering the security efforts of the ISF. The government has seen changes in the leadership of the defense, interior, and justice ministries. There have been some significant protests over the lack of electricity and other basic government services – to which the ISF has to respond.

‘Peshmerga’ and ‘Kurdistan’. One of the U.S. most reliable allies in the Middle East continues to be the Kurds of both Syria and Iraq. However, the Kurds in Iraq have some deep-seated internal political divisions (KDP vs PUK). This results in separate administrative and intelligence organizations representing the two political parties. This division extends to the Peshmerga as well.

In addition, the Kurdish government is at odds with Iraq’s central government on a number of issues. One of these is some disputed territory lying between Arab and Kurdish regions. There is a security gap in this area and ISIS is taking advantage of this gap.

Departure of State Department Personnel. Threats against U.S. personnel working in Iraq prompted a severe cut-back in embassy and consulate strength. The threats are from Iran and some of its proxy forces in Iraq – principally the Iranian-backed Shia militias belonging to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This “. . . eroded the ability of the Embassy Baghdad and Consulate Erbil to manage humanitarian assistance and stabilization efforts in Iraq.” The number of personnel was reduced from 563 to 312. This evacuation order has also affected some of the almost 5,000 contractor personnel stationed in Iraq.

The ‘Takeaway’

Based on a reading of the report it would be easy to draw the conclusion that the drawdown of military forces (SOF included) in Syria has diminished the ability of the SDF to kill off ISIS. In addition, the reduction of State and USAID personnel in Iraq has reduced humanitarian and stabilization efforts in Iraq. From the report: “Despite the loss of physical territory, thousands of ISIS fighters remain in Iraq and Syria and are carrying out attacks and working to rebuild their capabilities.”

Read the 116-page report here:
DoD Quarterly Report on OIR – August 2019

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Photo: Iraqi soldiers move through a smokescreen that provides concealment during an assault exercise.
(U.S. Army photo, page 2, of OIR IG Report, August 2019).

In December 19, 2018 President Trump surprised just about everyone when he announced that the U.S. would begin immediately withdrawing its 2,200 military personnel from northeastern Syria. This decision was apparently the result of a phone call with the Turkish president that took place a few days earlier on December 14, 2018. This abrupt shift in policy was at odds with previous statements by administration, state, defense, and CJTF-OIR officials.

In the months prior to the phone call numerous officials had stressed the long-term commitment to helping the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF). In fact, the initial purpose of the phone call was to warn the Turkish president not to proceed with plans to attack U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria. Instead Trump basically invited the Turks to do what they want in Syria. A part of the conversation included Trump asking the Turkish president if his forces were up to the task of cleaning up the remnants of ISIS.

In an attempt to alleviate concern about the unfinished fight against ISIS in Syria President Trump stated that Turkey can finish the job. On December 23, 2018 – just four days after announcing the U.S. military withdrawal from Syria – President Trump tweeted:

“President @RT_Erdogan of Turkey has very strongly informed me that he will eradicate whatever is left of ISIS in Syria . . . and he is a man who can do it plus, Turkey is right “next door”. Our troops are coming home!”

During a subsequent trip to visit U.S. troops in Iraq President Trump stated:

“We’ve knocked them silly. I will tell you I’ve had some very good talks with President Erdogan who wants to knock them out also, and he’ll do it.”

For the last few years, since early 2015, the United States has been providing training, advise, assistance, weapons, equipment, intelligence, and ‘enablers’ to the Syrian Democratic Front. The SDF has been the primary ground force in Syria that has been fighting ISIS. The SDF has been enabled by the U.S. and other Coalition partners with fires support (artillery and mortar) and airstrikes. As a result of SDF military operations the Islamic State has seen its territorial holdings in Syria diminish significantly. Currently, ISIS controls a few pockets of territory along the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV).

The SDF, assisted by the U.S. and Coalition nations, has liberated more than 20,000 square miles of previously held ISIS territory in Syria. More than 3 million civilians have been liberated from ISIS rule. The SDF is a local Arab and Kurdish military militia. However, the majority of the SDF is made up of fighters from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). There are also some smaller ethnic groups in the SDF such as the Yezidis and Syriac Christians.

Photo caption: US tactical vehicle provides security on roads near Manbij, Syria. Manbij is an SDF stronghold that separates the SDF enclave from areas held by Turkish-backed Syrian forces. Photo by Staff Sgt. Timothy Koster, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, June 20, 2018.

The Islamic State is not quite defeated. There are more military operations that need to be conducted to eliminate the few remaining pockets of IS resistance. In addition, IS has already shifted its strategy from that of a conventional force holding ground to an insurgency. It is now operating in the shadows with small groups of fighters, an intelligence apparatus, and a support structure hidden from view. It has adopted insurgent and terrorist tactics now that its conventional military capability has been significantly degraded.

President Trump’s decision to immediately start the withdrawal of U.S. military personnel from Syria puts the fight against IS in jeopardy. If the Kurds lose the support of the U.S. and the Coalition partners then it will be in danger of attacks by the Turkish military and its proxy Syrian militia forces. The Kurds will likely shift their attention from the remaining ISIS pockets and focus on the threat of Turkish incursions.

The situation in Syria is certainly complex. Russia, a key Assad ally, does not view the YPG as a terrorist organization. Russia considers Kurdish held territory as a future holding of the Syrian government; not territory that should be ceded to a Turkish occupation. The Syrian government sees any Turkish military presence in Syria as illegal and against its interests. Another major player, Iran, is concerned about ISIS regaining strength in Syria – which could affect the fight against ISIS in Iraq. Turkey would likely meet with varying degrees of resistance from these major players should it attempt to send military forces to the areas where ISIS is currently operating within Syria.

However, President Trump says to not worry about ISIS. He has the assurance from President Erdogan that Turkey’s military forces will clean up the remaining ISIS threat. Certainly, this statement will alleviate the concern that some Trump supporters have about abruptly leaving Syria without finishing the mission of killing off the remaining IS fighters. But . . .

A brief look at the map above that depicts which warring faction holds what territory in Syria quickly will cast doubt on Turkey’s ability to chase down and defeat ISIS fighters. Turkish forces are either in Turkey along the Turkish Syrian border or located in a small pocket of Syria (Afrin) to the west of the SDF held territory. The remaining pockets of ISIS are in the central eastern region of Syria along the Euphrates River. It would be extremely difficult for Turkish military forces to conduct operations in the part of Syria where ISIS is currently found without traversing territory (almost 250 kms) held by the Syrian government forces or the SDF.

Turkey views the YPG – the Kurdish element of the SDF – as an extension of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK). The PKK is a Kurdish resistance group in Turkey that has been labeled as a terrorist organization by both Ankara and Washington. The PKK has been conducting insurgent military operations within Turkey for several decades. The Turks would like to eliminate the Kurdish enclave in Syria and establish a buffer zone in Syria south of the Turkish border to provide greater security against possible Kurdish attacks and attempts to support the PKK.

Turkish desire to eliminate ISIS as a threat is certainly secondary to its aim to diminish the Kurdish control of northeastern Syria. The Turks are not that concerned about an ISIS organization that has been at war with the Syrian Kurds and the Assad regime. In addition, in order to reach the areas where ISIS now exists the Turks would have to traverse across areas of Syria now held by either the SDF or Syrian government forces. President Trump’s assertion that Turkey will finish the fight against ISIS is misplaced optimism.

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Top photo: SDF mortar team fires 120mm at ISIS target near Deir ez-Zor in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, Syria. Photo by SGT Matthew Crane, CJTF-OIR, November 16, 2018.

The Kurds in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria number about 25 million people. They are considered the most populous people in the world that does not have its own nation-state. The Syrian Kurd’s Local Protection Force (YPG) (Wikipedia) comprise a good part of the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF) and has been accused of linkages to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK is opposed to the Turkish regime and is outlawed by Turkey as a terrorist organization.

The SDF is based in the northeastern region of Syria – which is also an area of Syria where Kurds live. The Kurds historic homeland can be found in parts of Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. The SDF, due to the power vacuum in that region of the country and the backing of the United States, was able to keep that region free from the reign of terror imposed upon other parts of Syria by the Islamic State (IS). Currently (2018), the SDF is estimated to be at 30,000 personnel.

In September of 2014 President Obama began U.S. air attacks against the Islamic State in Syria – one month after starting strikes against IS in Iraq. The air campaign continued into 2015. In late 2015 U.S. ground troops (mostly SOF) entered Syria. Their primary job was to recruit, organize, train, equip, and advise Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters. Concurrently, JSOC had elements conducting ‘surgical strikes’ against IS targets.

The SDF has been instrumental in the degradation of the Islamic State in Syria. IS has lost a considerable amount of territory and thousands of its fighters have been killed.

Trump’s Surprise Announcement

On Thursday, December 19, 2018, President Trump tweeted that we had attained victory over the Islamic State (IS) and that all military personnel would depart immediately.

“We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency.”

President Trump, Wednesday, December 19, 2018, 9:29 am.

This tweet seemed to have caught the Pentagon, Congress, and others by surprise. Republican Senators for the most part were quite unhappy with this reversal in policy. As of December 2018, there were about 2,000 U.S. military personnel in Syria. In addition, there were a smaller number of State Department and other governmental personnel in Syria as well.

The Winners

Turkish Delight. The Turks, of course, are excited with the prospects of finally being able to attack the Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria. The Turks have been at war with the Kurds for decades. With a U.S. withdrawal from Syria the SDF’s main benefactor is out of the picture leaving the Kurds very vulnerable for a Turkish offensive.

Some argue that Turkey will take over the fight against the Islamic State. In fact, Turkey has done very little against ISIS. In addition, the Turkish military doesn’t have the ‘reach’ to get to the remaining pockets of ISIS in Syria. Turkey has little motivation to fight ISIS – as the terrorist group has been fighting the Kurds and the Assad regime – an enemy of Turkey.

It is also interesting that the Turks have agreed to a $3.5 billion purchase of the Patriot missile system. This is a huge boost to Raytheon’s bottom line and perhaps negates the Turkish deal with the Russians for the purchase of the S-400 surface-to-air missile system.

Russian Interest as Well. The Russians welcomed the news of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria. It described the move as a “real prospect for a political solution”. This move will solidify Russia’s relationship with Turkey, strengthen the Assad regime, and provide more security for Russia’s air and sea bases in western Syria.

Iranian Influence Grows. The U.S. leaving Syria provides more opportunity for Iran to expand its influence and power within the Middle East. A U.S. withdrawal would mean that Iran would have the ability to move men, equipment, and weapons more freely from Iran to Syria (and on into Lebanon) without constraints. The Iraqi Ramadi-Rutba route onto Syria’s Route 2 going to Damascus will possibly open with the withdrawal of US and Free Syria Army forces depart Al-Tanf where more than 200 U.S. personnel are based. Syria’s M4 and M20 highways will become more accessible for Iran as well.

Hezbollah. Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, also benefits as well. Certainly its image is enhanced with an Assad regime victory. It will very likely retain control of many of the small Shia militias spread throughout Syria.

IS Wins as Well. The one organization that has been taking the fight to Islamic State has been the SDF. Now that U.S. support is leaving the SDF will have to fend off IS as well as be on guard against the Syrian government, Turkey, and the proxy forces (militias) of Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

The Losers

The Syrian Kurds come out as the biggest losers. The U.S. removal of troops mean that the door is open to a Turkish offensive against the Kurdish enclave. The Syrian people lose as well. This U.S. move leaves a political and security void that will cause a realignment of interests and loyalties.

Confusion in the Administration

The Pentagon was not the only organization caught off guard with Trump’s announcement. It appears that other senior advisors and officials in the administration did not see this coming. In the past week the National Security Advisor, John Bolton, said that the U.S. would stay in Syria until Iran ended its military presence. General Joe Dunford recently said that we still need to train up local security forces in northeastern Syria; indicating that it would take a long time to the security forces to the state where they could provide stability to the region.

CJTF-OIR.

“The Coalition mission in northeast Syria remains unchanged. We continue our normal operations, including observation posts in the border region to address the security concerns of our NATO ally Turkey. We remain committed to working with our partners on the ground to ensure an enduring defeat of ISIS. Any reports indicating a change in the U.S. position with respect to these efforts is false and designed to sow confusion and chaos.”

Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, December 15, 2018.

Brett McGurk, Special Envoy to Iraq, was taken by surprise with the Trump reversal on Syria. He had been working the anti-ISIS campaign on behalf of President Bush, President Obama, and President Trump. McGurk would resign within days of making the remark below.

“It would be reckless if we were just to say, well, the physical caliphate is defeated, so we can just leave now. I think anyone who’s looked at a conflict like this would agree with that.”

Special Envoy to Iraq / Syria, Brett McGurk, December 11, 2018.

John Bolton seemed to be supportive of staying in Syria. He is especially worried about the spread of Iranian influence in the Middle East.

“We’re not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias.”

National Security Advisor John Bolton, September 2018.

IS Still Operational

Despite the steady defeat of its forces and loss of almost all of the territory that IS previously held in Syria – the organization is far from defeated. It has reverted back to the insurgent operations that it was very adept at several years back. With the withdrawal of the U.S. and the Syrian Kurds ability to fight IS diminished (lack of U.S. air and artillery support and attacks by Turkey) the Islamic State catches a break.

Once again the Kurds are cast aside. This is nothing new. Over the span of the past 100 years they have been used as proxy forces and then kicked to the side of the curb once their usefulness has run its course. The United States decision to abandon the Syrian Kurds is yet once more instance of history repeating itself.

On Thursday, December 19, 2018, President Trump declared that the fight against the Islamic State in Syria was over and that we had ‘won’. He announced the immediate withdrawal of the U.S. troops and diplomatic personnel in northeastern Syria that is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF).

The biggest loser in this latest Trump decision are the Syrian Kurds. The SDF – with some Arab but mostly Kurdish fighters – have been instrumental in the degradation of the Islamic State in Syria. Other losers – in the long run – will be the Syrian people who will continue to suffer the abuses of the Assad regime, Iran proxy forces, and Hezbollah. The United States loses bargaining position and the ability to influence events in Syria and in the Middle East region.

The big winners in this debacle are the Assad regime, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and IS. It will be interesting to see how all this shakes out over the next few years. Turkey certainly will do everything it can to marginalize and / or destroy the Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria. The Kurds – realizing now the mistake of trusting the United States – will likely come to an accommodation with the Assad regime. That would solidify the northeastern region of Syria for Assad. Then again – Assad and the Turks could come to an arrangement that would decimate the Kurdish enclave.

The 5th Special Forces along with many supporting U.S. military elements spent a lot of time and energy getting the SDF established, equipped, and trained to fight the Islamic State in Syria. Certainly there has to be some angst at Fort Campbell about the future of the Syrian Kurds. The abandonment of the Syrian Kurds is a tragic error on the part of the United States. And once again the Kurds realize that they have no friends but the mountains.

April 2018 Coalition Air Strikes Against Syria – the nations of United Kingdom, France, and the United States launched missile and aircraft strikes against military targets associated with Syria’s chemical weapons manufacturing capability. The attacks took place at 4:00 am (Syria time), Saturday, April 14th against three main targets. The attacks were a response to the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons on April 7 and April 13 that killed at least 45 people and sickened hundreds of others.

Successful Operation. The Pentagon briefed reporters on Saturday, April 14th on the air strikes. The Department of Defense says the operation was successful and that there were no allied casualties. The air strikes were designed to limit civilian casualties with little collateral damage.

Targets. Three military chemical weapons targets were hit – which were fundamental components of the Syrian’s chemical weapons warfare capability. Struck were a chemical weapons storage facility west of Homs, a chemical bunker facility, and a research, development and production center for chemical and biological weapons.

Strike Platforms and Weapons. A total of 105 weapons struck the targets. Missiles were fired from platforms (sea and air) of the French, American, and British military from the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean.

Maritime Assets. A U.S. guided-missile cruiser and destroyer fired a total of 37 Tomahawk missiles from the Red Sea. A U.S. submarine and French frigate ship fired missiles from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. A U.S. destroyer fired 23 Tomahawk missiles from the North Arabian Gulf.

Air Assets. The U.S. air package consisted of B-1 Lancer bombers with the support of tanker, fighter, and EW aircraft. The B-1s fired 19 Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) and / or JASSM-ER (extended range). British fired 8 storm shadow missiles from Tornado and Typhoon jets. The French fired 9 SCALP missiles from Rafales and Mirages.

Enemy Response. While the Russian air defenses in Syria were ‘active’ they were not ’employed’. The Pentagon reports that the Syrians responded with surface to air missiles (about 40) but they were fired after the last Coalition munition impacted. Russia claims that 71 of the missiles were intercepted by Syrian forces.

Mission Results. The Department of Defense says that the operation was a success and accomplished its goals of degrading the Syrian chemical weapons manufacturing capability and sent a message to President Assad and the Russians. The DoD is hoping that the air strikes will discourage future employment of chemical weapons by Syria. President Trump tweeted “Mission Accomplished”.

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Edits: It appears that the JASSM-ER was not used after all. The Pentagon corrected their briefing. In addition, the F-22 Raptor was part of the flight package.

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News Articles.

April 14, 2018. Chief Pentagon Spokesperson Briefing Transcript, DoD News. Joint Staff Director LTG Kenneth McKenzie and Pentagon Chief Spokesperson Dana White brief reporters in the Pentagon Briefing Room on the April 2018 Coalition air strikes against Syria. The video of the briefing is below.
www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1493749/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-pentagon-chief-spokesperson-dana-w-whit/

April 13, 2018. Briefing by Secretary Mattis on U.S. Strikes in Syria, DoD Press Operations.
www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1493658/briefing-by-secretary-mattis-on-us-strikes-in-syria/

Videos.

April 14, 2018. Chief Pentagon Spokesperson Briefs Pentagon Reporters, DoD News (38 mins)
www.dvidshub.net/video/594372/chief-pentagon-spokesperson-briefs-pentagon-reporters

April 14, 2018. Mattis Explains Strikes on Syria,  Department of Defense (1 min)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqQlGb9yudA

April 14, 2018. B-1 Crew Stepping / Take Off, DoD News. A maintenance crew and B-1 flight crew prepare for takeoff before launching for the April 2018 Coalition air strikes against Syria.
www.dvidshub.net/video/594380/b-1-crew-stepping-take-off

April 14, 2018. SSN TLAM Launch, DoD News. The Virginia-class fast attack submarine USS John Warner launched Tomahawk missiles from the Mediterranean Sea in the April 2018 Coalition air strikes against Syria.
www.dvidshub.net/video/594381/ssn-tlam-launch

April 14, 2018. USS Monterey Launches Syria Missile Strikes, DoD News. A guided-missile cruiser fires Tomahawk land attack missile in the April 2018 Coalition air strikes against Syria.
www.dvidshub.net/video/594364/uss-monterey-launches-syria-missile-strikes

Photo Credit. Graphic by DoD, April 14, 2018.

Syria Update 20170721 – CIA to halt support to Syrian rebels, armored vehicles continue to move into Syria, Turkey unhappy, Russian air campaign, offensive to take Raqqa, and more.

Raqqa. The Islamic State continues to hold on to the city of Raqqa, Syria. The Kurdish-led forces – Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – have closed on the city but resistance by ISIS has stiffened. So this may turn out to be a long, hard slog. The U.S. is assisting with the establishment of local security forces – Raqqa Internal Security Force – to take charge of the city’s security. In addition, it is working with civilian leaders to establish a local governance to fill the vacuum that will exist once ISIS is defeated.

Up-Armored Vehicles Move to Syria. Multiple reports in social media posted lately have shown convoys of flatbeds carrying armored vehicles heading from Iraq and moving into Syria. The U.S. is supplying vehicles to the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF); but it is also moving vehicles into Syria for its own forces. See “Armored US Combat Vehicles Have Been Spotted Pouring Into Syria”, Task & Purpose, July 20, 2017.

Turks Unhappy. The Turks are not pleased with the progress that the Kurds are making. They believe the YPG is aligned with Kurdish terrorist groups operating in Turkey. However, the U.S. seems to be steadfast in backing the Kurds (we shall see how long this lasts).

Russian Air Campaign. Russia continues to expand its influence in Syria. Putin (according to some critics) has co-opted the Trump administration and that appears to be yielding results. Although it says it is hitting ISIS in Syria hard with air support most of the air strikes are against anti-Assad forces. The Institute for the Study of War has provided an analysis of the recent Russian airstrikes (July 20, 2017).

FSA Loses CIA Support. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is now on the short end of the stick. The Trump administration has decided to (bowing to pressure from Russia perhaps?) end the spy agency’s semi-covert support of the Syria rebel forces fighting the Assad regime. The program started in 2013 but never got big enough to make a difference – a case of too little, too late. Many critics of the CIA’s program say that the ‘moderate’ rebel movement has been fractured and is closely aligned with Islamic extremist and terrorist groups.

Implications of Discontinuing CIA Program. The abandonment of the FSA by the United States will force the movement to further align itself with Gulf states and Turkey. Senator John McCain and others think that Putin and Iran are big winners in this decision. Many believe that this will be the death of the anti-Assad movement. See articles below:

“Syrian Rebels Say Jihadists Likely Beneficiaries of US Halt to Arms Supply“, Voice of America, July 20, 2017

“McCain: Cutting Syria train-and-equip ‘irresponsible'”, Military Times, July 20, 2017

“In Syria, the U.S. Reversed Course”, STRATFOR, July 20, 2017

“Trump’s CIA Decision Dooms Syrian Rebels”, by Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report, July 20, 2017.

Could the CIA Program Have Gotten Good Results? Some critics say the CIA’s program could have been successful in building up moderate rebel forces before the extremist groups took hold if started earlier – as in 2012. Anti-aircraft missles were never delivered to the rebels (probably a good thing as who knows where those would end up). In addition, the U.S. has been avoiding confrontations with Russia and Iran in Syria – so that has limited the effectiveness of the CIA’s support. Read more in “What the demise of the CIA’s anti-Assad program means”, by David Ignatius, The Washington Post, July 20, 2017.