Ukraine Archives - SOF News

Ukraine Conflict Update – June 6, 2023

SOF News — Tue, 06 Jun 2023 05:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, in the air, and on the seas. Additional topics include NATO, aid to Ukraine, refugees, internally displaced personnel, humanitarian efforts, cyber, and information operations.

Image / Photo: Staff Sgt. Dave Servida, 436th Aerial Port Squadron ramp supervisor, directs weapons cargo bound for Ukraine onto a C-17 Globemaster III during a security assistance mission at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware, Aug. 19, 2022. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Cydney Lee)

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Big Picture of the Conflict

Failed Winter Offensive (Russia) and Future Counteroffensive (Ukraine). The results of fighting over the winter was costly for both sides of the conflict. Now all eyes are watching the Ukrainian military for its expected spring offensive. Some analysts believe it will be a major attack at one focal point with the intent to thrust deep into the Russian rear area reaching the Sea of Azov. But others think it will be a series of shorter offensives spread across the front line. Currently, Ukraine is attacking Russian logistical depots and command and control centers behind enemy lines with artillery and missiles. Ukrainian officials are being quiet on when the counteroffensive will take place and have mounted a campaign against public disclosure of details – “Words are very unnecessary. They can only do harm”. (Twitter, June 4, 2023)

Has It Begun? There is speculation that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has already begun. U.S. officials say there are signs that a counteroffensive is now underway. Fighting is raging at several points on the front line. Most military analysts believe the attack will be concentrated on southern Ukraine in an attempt to sever the land bridge between western Russia and occupied Crimea.

News Reports on Counteroffensive:

“This is Ukraine’s D-Day”, by Jamie Dettmer, Politico Europe, June 6, 2023.
“Ukraine Intensifies Attacks on Russian Frontline Positions”, The New York Times, June 5, 2023. (subscription)
“Is Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Here?”, The New York Times, June 5, 2023. (subscription)
“Ukraine war: Kyiv says troops advance on eastern front”, BBC News, June 6, 2023.

NATO-Trained Units and the Coming Offensive. Ukrainian units have had personnel trained by European nations for months. Some of these units have been made from scratch – like the brand-new 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade that received its training at a NATO base in Germany. The 47th brigade and other assault units have been armed with Western weapons, including Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard tanks, that will allow it to cross minefields and trenches into the deep Russian rear area of operations. “NATO-trained units will serve as tip of spear in Ukraine’s counteroffensive”, The Washington Post, June 4, 2023. (subscription)

Battle for Bakhmut. The fight for the small industrial city on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine is in a temporary operational lull. The Russians appear to have reached their culminating point (no more capacity to conduct offensive operations) and are relying on the use of artillery and mortars to continue the fight around the city. The Russians announced that they achieved their objective of capturing the city. The Russian paramilitary organization, the Wagner Group, is pulling its forces to the rear for rest and refit; while the ground held is being turned over to regular and airborne Russian military troops. A Ukrainian defense spokesman said that at the end of May Ukrainian forces maintained control over the southwestern outskirts and entrance to Bakhmut City.

Increased Global Support for Ukraine. The Biden administration has given the green light for other nations to provide F-16s to Ukraine. This is one of many ‘signals’ that global support for Ukraine has increased and that nations are more willing to provide more lethal offensive weapons to that nation; weapons that can strike deep behind enemy lines and threaten Russian positions in Crimea. Ukraine is enjoying strong support throughout most of the world – even as the conflict rages on. Some think the conflict is at a turning point. “Did Ukraine just win the war?”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, May 30, 2023.

Microsoft Report – Russian Cyber Operations. A Microsoft Threat Intelligence report has been published that analyzed Russian tactics over the twelve-month period since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The 18-page PDF examines what the investigative team has learned about Russian state tactics so far and what may be on the horizon. “A year of Russian hybrid warfare in Ukraine”, Microsoft, March 15, 2023. The United States is reported to have provided $37 million in cybersecurity assistance to Ukraine. (The Kyiv Independent, June 5, 2023).

Ground Situation

Tank Numbers. When the Russians invaded Ukraine in February 2022 they had a significant advantage in tanks and armored vehicles. However, the tank numbers are now about equal due to Russian losses and tanks provided to Ukraine by European nations. “Ukraine now probably has as many tanks as Russia”, Euromaiden Press, June 1, 2023.

Minefields and Fortifications. The Russians have been digging in for months in anticipation of an expected Ukrianian offensive to recapture territory taken by the Russians since February 2022. One expected axis of approach for the Ukrainian offensive is Zaporizhzhia region and the city of Melitopol. However, it is unknown if Ukraine has the necessary quantity of mine clearing and fortification breaching equipment to rapidly push through the Russian lines. “To liberate territory, Ukraine must smash fortified Russian defenses”, The Washington Post, June 2, 2023. (subscription)

SOF – Preparing the Battlefield. Expectations are high for a widely anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive; perhaps too high. However, Kyiv is already making the first moves of the campaign with its special operations forces. “Ukrainian Special Forces – Preparing the Battlefield”, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 22, 2023.

Chechen Leader Criticizes Wagner Group. Ramzan Kadyrov has come out vocally against the leader of the Wagner Group – Yevgeny Prigozhin. He says that the leader of the Russian paramilitary group should not criticize the Russian military and should provide more vocal support for Putin. Chechen “Akhmat” forces have been active on the frontlines supporting the Russian occupation of Ukraine. Prigozhin has accused the Kremlin of fabricating a rift between him and Kadyrov.

The Other Russian Mercenaries. While the Wagner Group gets most of the headlines there are numerous private military groups in Russia . . . some fighting in Ukraine. “Everyone is talking about Wagner. But who are Russia’s other mercenairies?”, Euronews, May 16, 2023.

Sabotage Cells in Russia. Ukraine has cultivated sabotage agents inside Russia and is giving them drones to stage attacks. The drones have been launched from inside Russia; some targeting the Kremlin. (CNN Politics, June 5, 2023).

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. The Institute for the Study of War presents a map that depicts the assessed control of terrain in Ukraine as of March 6, 2023, 3:00 PM ET. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces.

News Updates. A detailed daily update of the war – a daily review – is provided by Euromaidan Press. And, of course, there is the always comprehensive daily report by the Institute for the Study of War.

Fight for the Skies

Air Attacks Continue. Despite reports over the past several months that Russia has been expending its supply of missiles the pace of the air attacks is continuing. A combination of drone and cruise missiles have targeted command and control nodes and logisitical facilities over the past four weeks – many times in the nations capital of Kyiv. In the past month over 400 Iranian Shahed drones and 114 cruise missiles (Politico) have struck Ukraine.

F-16s for Ukraine. There is a lot of support for NATO nations to provide F-16s to Ukraine. After months of public lobbying by Ukraine there appears that some may be going to Ukraine. In May, President Joe Biden said that the U.S. will support training Ukrainian pilots to fly the aircraft and has said he supports the providing of F-16s to Ukraine by Poland and other European nations. While the public may have high expectations for the F-16 there are many factors that will need to be taken into account. “What F-16s Will (and Won’t) Do For Ukraine”, The RAND Blog, May 31, 2023. See also “Ukraine’s Quest for Air Superiority: The Implications of F-16 Fighter Jets in the Conflict”, SOFREP, May 20, 2023.

Drones – Cost Effective. One defense expert has conducted research on the cheapest and most effective means of destroying infantry or armored units. He has found that, in many instances, the use of small drones comes out on top. “Study shows drones the cheapest, most effective in battle against Russian invasion”, Euromaiden Press, May 28, 2023.

Maritime Activities

Ukrainian Naval SOF Unit. A quiet but intense battle is raging near Kherson, which Ukraine recaptured from Russia last year. The fight is happening along the Dnipro River, which divides Ukrainian and Russian-held territory. The 73rd Naval Center of Special Operations appears to be leading the effort for Ukraine. “A secretive SEAL-like unit is leading Ukraine’s shadowy battle against Russia in a vital corner of the country”, Business Insider, May 28, 2023.

Importance of the Black Sea. Mara Karlin, assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities spoke at the Black Sea and Balkans Security Forum in Bucharest, Romania in mid-May 2023. In her comments she stated that the Black Sea is a crucial crossroads for the world and is an area of critical geostrategic importance. “U.S. Official Looks to Deter Russia in Black Sea Region”, DoD News, May 19, 2023.

General Information

Report – Middle East and North Africa: Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War. Congressional Research Service (CRS), updated June 2, 2023, PDF, 30 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47160

Documentary on Mariupol. A film named “20 Days in Mariupol” made its premiere in Ukraine on June 3, 2023, when it was seen by the first time by some of the Ukrainian medics and first responders who were chronicled in the documentary. The film is a joint project between The Associated Press and PBS Frontline and footage was taken from three Ukrainian journalists who were in Mariupol during the seige and capture by the Russians. “Award-winning Mariupol documentary screened for 1st time in Ukraine”, AP News, June 4, 2023.

Ukraine and Military Observers. History shows us that sending military officers to observe foreign wars yields benefits. We should send some to Ukraine to prepare our forces for the future. “U.S. Military Observers and Why They Are Needed in Ukraine”, War on the Rocks, May 12, 2023.

Additional U.S. Assistance. On May 31, 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that President Biden has authorized the 39th drawdown of U.S. arms and equipment for Ukraine. This will provide an additional $300 million worth of equipment. The security package includes significant air defense capabilities, ammunition for HIMARS and artillery, and other field equipment. Some of the air defense equipment includes additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems, Avenger air defense systems, Stinger antiaircraft systems, and AIM-7 missiles for air defense. A Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine (dated May 31, 2023) details the security assistance provided to Ukraine since February 2022.

Body of U.S. Green Beret Recovered. Nick Maimer, a former U.S. Special Forces soldier, was killed in the embattled city of Bakhmut in mid-May 2023. He was performing humanitarian work and training defense forces when he was killed. The Russian paramilitary organization, Wagner Group, turned the body after efforts by Perry Blackburn, another former Green Beret associated with the non-profit organization AFGfree, interceded into the affair. “Body of US Special Forces Veteran Turned Over by Russian Mercenary Group”, Military.com, May 26, 2023. Watch a video about the death of Maimer in “CNN pieces together clues about American killed in Bakhmut”, CNN World, May 26, 2023.

Commentary

What Ukraine Must Do to Win. Two retired U.S. Special Forces officers, Erik Kramer and Paul Schneider, provide their perspective on what the Ukrainian military needs to do to be victorious in the conflict with Russia. They are co-founders of the Ukraine Defense Support Group headquartered in Kyiv, Ukraine. They observed a series of common trends: lack of mission command, effective training, and combined arms operations. The logistic and maintenance systems are ad hoc. The use of special operations forces needs to be fine-tuned. One specific aspect of training that is needed is the implementation of a 30-day train-the-trainer program that focuses on mission command of combined arms from the brigade level down. “What the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to Do to Win”, War on the Rocks, June 2, 2023.

What is Russia’s Strategy? Putin may have already attained his goals in Ukraine. He has occupied the entire western coastline of the Sea of Azov, captured vital Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov, established a land corridor between Russia and Crimea, and occupied swaths of agricultural and industrial regions of eastern Ukraine. His military will outlast Ukraine’s in a war of attrition, the vital support of western nations may ebb over time, and Ukraine’s economic future is in peril. Read more in “What Is Russia’s Strategy in Ukraine?”, Modern War Institute at West Point, June 5, 2023.

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

UNCN. The Ukraine NGO Coordination Network is an organization that ties together U.S.-based 501c3 organizations and non-profit humanitarian organizations that are working to evacuate and support those in need affected by the Ukraine crisis. https://uncn.one

Ukraine Conflict Update – April 19, 2023

SOF News — Wed, 19 Apr 2023 05:00:00 +0000

Image / Photo: Destroyed Russian tanks in the Sumy region, Ukraine. Photo by Irina Rybakova, press service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, March 7, 2022.

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Big Picture of the Conflict

Leaked Documents. The top secret documents leaked by an Air National Guardsman have revealed a lot of the behind the scenes happenings with the Ukraine conflict. One aspect of the conflict is the likelihood of a prolonged conflict that appears to be a stalemate; but one that favors Russia over the long-term. Since Russia is a larger country with more resources, industrial capacity, and a large population base, it can afford a long war of attrition. “Leaked documents could both help and hurt Ukraine”, The Hill Defense, April 16, 2023. The U.S. Department of Defense says that the leaked documents will not hinder cooperation with NATO partners in the support for Ukraine. “Partnered Commitment to Ukraine Unlikely to be Deterred by Recent Intel Leaks”, DoD News, April 17, 2023.

Russian Recruitment. Enlistment offices across Russia are attempting to bring recruits into the military. A new campaign is underway canvassing high schools and colleges. A mobilization in September 2022 of 300,000 reservists was the spark to led to tens of thousands of military age men to flee Russia for other countries. Russia is avoiding another large-scale call up as it resulted in wide spread opposition. “New Russian campaign tries to entice men to fight Ukraine”, AP News, March 26, 2023.

Ground Situation

Fight for Bakhmut and Stalingrad. Gaelan Hanlon provides an analysis of the Battle of Bakhmut. He used the historical example of the Battle for Stalingrad during World War II as a comparison model. His analysis concludes that the time has come for the Ukrainians to cede control of this small industrial city in eastern Ukraine to the Russians. The defenders should withdraw and live to fight another day. “How Long Should Ukrainian Forces Defend Bakhmut? Lessons from Stalingrad”, Modern War Institute, April 18, 2023.

“A Wall of Armor”. The Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine has galvanized NATO countries into action. Eastern European countries are learning from the conflict in Ukraine that main battle tanks still have a role in a ground war. Part of the response to Russian aggression is sending tanks to Ukraine. This then requires the acquisition of new tanks. Many nations are looking to acquire the M1 Abrams, a U.S. made main battle tank. “The M1 Abrams is becoming the Benchmark Main Battle Tank for Eastern Europe”, Real Clear Defense, April 18, 2023.

‘Gun Trucks’ for Ukraine. In an effort to counter the wide-spread use of drones by the Russians the U.S. will soon be providing an inexpensive counter-air solution to Ukraine. 30mm guns that can be mounted on the back of trucks will be sent to the country in the coming months. Kind of like the technicals found in smaller countries – big guns on pickup trucks; but better. “US providing Ukraine with 30mm gun trucks to blast Iranian drones out of the sky”, Task & Purpose, April 5, 2023.

Fight for the Skies

More Airpower Needed. Douglas Birkey of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies argues that Kyiv needs more jets – and points to the recently leaked U.S. intelligence documents to buttress his argument. Ukraine’s stockpile of surface-to-air missiles are running low and Russia could be on the verge of gaining air superiority later this spring. This would be a disaster for Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive that may kick off in a matter of weeks. “Don’t want to lose Ukraine? Empower Kyiv with airpower”, Breaking Defense, April 17, 2023.

Finland’s Airspace. The skies of Finland are now open for NATO surveillance and intelligence missions. This will allow NATO to monitor Russian activities more closely in the region. The first surveillance flight was conducted on March 23, 2023. Both manned and unmanned aircraft will be performing these future intelligence gathering missions. Both Sweden and Finland joined NATO’s Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) program in February 2023. Finland, currently a ‘NATO partner’, has applied to join NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other aggressive activities in the region. “Finland opens airspace for NATO surveillance and intelligence flights”, Defence Today, March 23, 2023.

Maritime Activities

Blockade of Crimea? Ukraine seems determined, if you listen to the rhetoric, to recapture Crimea from Russia. The peninsula was annexed in 2014 at the beginning of the Russian Ukraine War. Most military analysts believe that Ukraine does not have the military capability to retake Crimea. However, some suggest a Ukrainian blockade is feasible. The peninsular is susceptible to a blockade. It’s two main supply routes are over the Crimea Bridge that spans the Kerch Strait or on the land route from the Russian border, along the west coast of the Sea of Azov (close to the front lines), and across the narrow band of land that connects Crimea to Ukraine. Read more in “Why Blockading Rather Than Retaking Crimea Might Be Kyiv’s Best Option”, The Rand Blog, April 10, 2023.

General Information

Changes in NATO Military Strategy. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is becoming the fighting alliance it once was during the Cold War. NATO is moving from a strategy of deterrence by retaliation to deterrence by denial. For the Baltic States, this new strategy is one they can embrace. “Russian Invasion of Ukraine Revolutionizes NATO Military Strategy”, by Steven Erlanger, The New York Times, April 17, 2023.

Guardsmen to Train with Ukrainian Troops. Members of the Arkansas National Guard are heading to Germany for a year-long mission. They will assume command of the Joint Multinational Training Group – Ukraine (JMTG-U) at Grafenwoehr where they will mentor and advise Ukrainians. “39th Infantry Brigade Combat Team to Work With Ukrainian Forces”, National Guard, April 6, 2023.

TS Docs on Social Media. It appears that Top Secret Pentagon documents with details about the war in Ukraine have been published on some social media sites (Telegram and Twitter). The Pentagon is reviewing the matter but has not provided many details. The Department of Justice has opened an investigation into the leaks. The documents include maps of Ukraine, where troops are concentrated, and the kinds of weapons available to the Ukrainian forces. Defense analysts are picking apart the posted documents determining what is real and what is fiction. “Top-secret Pentagon documents on Ukraine war appear on social media”, NPR, April 7, 2023. See also “Pentagon probing leaked docs purporting to preview Ukraine offensive”, New York Post, April 7, 2023. And this article as well . . . “Russians Accused of Doctoring Leaked Western Documents on Ukraine War”, Voice of America, April 7, 2023.

UK SOF in Ukraine? According to some leaked U.S. intelligence documents the United Kingdom has UK special forces operating in Ukraine. One document indicates that as many as 50 UK SOF personnel had been deployed to Ukraine alongside SOF from other nations. The UK Ministry of Defence is pushing back on the claims saying:

“The widely reported leak of alleged classified US information has demonstrated a serious level of accuracy. Readers should be cautious about taking a face value allegations that have the potential to spread disinformation.”Spokesman for UK MoD, April 11, 2023, MOD @DefenceHQ Twitter

U.S. SOF In Ukraine. The CIA and U.S. Army Special Forces have some personnel based in Ukraine serving in an advisory capacity. Read more in “The Unknown Mission of American Special Ops Troops Fighting in Ukraine”, SOFREP, April 16, 2023. (subscription) See also “Ukraine Situation Report: US Troops for Embassy Support Only Pentagon Says”, The Drive, April 17, 2023.

New Ukrainian Head of SOF. Yevhenii Khmara has been appointed by President Zelenskyy as the head of the Alpha Group of the Security Service of Ukraine and head of the Special Operations Centre. Yahoo! News, April 14, 2023.

Egypt’s About Face. Apparently, according to leaked intelligence reports, Egypt was prepared to provide rockets to Russia for its use in the Ukraine conflict. But it seems that U.S. intervention has swayed the country to instead provide 152mm and 155mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine instead. Initial plans had Egypt providing up to 40,000 122mm Sakr-45 rockets to Russia. “Egypt nearly supplied rockets to Russia, agreed to arm Ukraine instead, leak shows”, The Washington Post, April 17, 2023. (subscription)

Commentary and Papers

Russia’s Frozen Billions. The economic cost of the war has been catastrophic for Ukraine. One-third of its population has been displaced and one-third of its GDP has been lost. Cities, towns, and villages have been destroyed. The civilian infrastructure will take years to rebuild. However, there is a source of funding that could assist Ukraine with the economic pain it is experiencing. Approximately $300 billion in Russian central bank assets that were frozen by Western governments could be used to counter the costs of Moscow’s destruction of Ukraine. “The moral and legal case for sending Russia’s frozen $300 billion to Ukraine”, The Washington Post, March 20, 2023. (subscription)

Moldova – In the Crosshairs? Russian aggression in Ukraine has captured the attention of this east European country. Sharing a border with Ukraine (Google Maps) and having its own bit of troubles with Russian agitators, Moldova is weathering a storm of uncertainty and unrest. Russia’s attempts to destabilize the country through disinformation, propaganda, and agitation are a very real threat. “War as a Neighbor”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 14, 2023.

Paper – The Russian General Staff. A host of authors provide an understanding of the Russian military’s decision making role in a ‘besieged fortress’. This document details the formal authorities and responsibilities of the Russian General Staff and the General Staff’s capacity to influence Russia’s national security decision making process. RAND Corporation, March 2023, PDF, 132 pages. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1233-7.html

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Ukraine Conflict Update – March 23, 2023

SOF News — Thu, 23 Mar 2023 05:00:00 +0000

Image / Photo: U.S. Airmen push a pallet holding munitions going to Ukraine into a C-17 Globemaster III at Travis Air Force Base, California, April 28, 2022. (U.S. Air Force photo by Chustine Minoda)

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Big Picture of the Conflict

Battle of Bakhmut. The fight for a small industrial city in Donetsk province continues (Google map). The struggle has gone on for many months. The Russians have been making some incremental advances on the city with huge personnel and equipment losses. The city is surrounded on the north, east, and south with one main road to the West (T0504) for the Ukrainians to evacuate dead and wounded and receive resupplies and replacement units and personnel. Read (and listen) more below:

The Battle of Bakhmut, Urban Warfare Project Podcast, Modern War Institute at West Point, featuring John Spencer, March 17, 2023, 36 minutes. https://mwi.usma.edu/the-battle-of-bakhmut/
The Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, has been unable to fully capture Bakhmut. It has lost many personnel in almost ‘human wave’ attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions. Its incremental gains have not succeeded in cutting the T0504 highway – a critical line of communication for Ukraine. However, the mercenary group has not ceased in its efforts to take the city.

Ground Situation

Limited Russian Gains. Over the past few months Russia has gained very little territory along the front lines. The incremental gains on the ground have come at a high cost of equipment and personnel. Many observers believe that the Russian offensive in the east of Ukraine has ‘culminated’.

A War of Attrition. The longer the war lasts the more likely the Russians will prevail in holding the land corridor from the Russian border to Crimea and the entire coastline of the Sea of Azov. This is one of the most important objectives of the conflict for Russia. It has the advantage in a bigger population, more resources, and greater industrial capacity.

Ukrainian Counteroffensive. It is likely that the Ukrainians will mount an offensive in the spring – likely in late April or early May. Several factors play into this scenario.

The Ukrainians have lost a lot of personnel in the battle for Bakhmut. Many of these soldiers were veterans of the war.
The main battle tanks promised by the United States and European nations are slowly being introduced; but many will be unavailable for a spring offensive.
Ukrainian troops need to be trained up in the new equipment being fielded by western nations. Some of this equipment will be fielded to newly formed units that need to have a train-up before being committed to the battlefield.
The Russians have been busy fortifying their positions and will mount a strong defense.
Weather and terrain are important factors. The ground has to be firm (no mud) for wheeled and tracked vehicles to travel across the countryside and on unimproved roads.

Tanks and More Tanks. A lot of press coverage is being given to the provision of modern Western tanks to Ukraine. Some national security observers say it is a ‘game changer’. Others question whether the limited quantities, long timeline to deployment, and other factors will result in limited effects this spring and summer.

U.S. Abrams. One of the nations providing tanks is the United States. The Abrams tank, is many months away from deployment – and there are not a lot scheduled to be sent to Ukraine. “M1 Abrams Tank: A Game Changer for Ukraine or Just a Waste of Time”, by Kris Osborn, 1945, March 16, 2023. The DoD announced that it will be sending M1A1 Abrams instead of the M1A2 Abrams. This will accelerate the delivery of 31 main battle tanks. “Abrams Tanks to Arrive in Ukraine by Fall”, SOF News, March 22, 2023.
Polish Tanks. Ukrainian crews have completed their training on Leopard 2 tanks in Poland. Warsaw has delivered 14 of the tanks to Ukraine. The crews and tanks will form the nucleus of a full tank battalion when combined with 8 tanks from Canada, 8 from Norway, and 6 from Spain. Poland had previously sent almost 250 T-72 tanks to Ukraine. “Poland already sent 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as Ukrainian crews finished training on them”, Euromaiden Press, March 9, 2023.
Russian Tanks. As the number of modern Russian tanks are depleted in Ukraine the country has been reaching back into its stock of older tanks. New reports say that T-54s and T-55s are now being taken out of storage for deployment in Ukraine. Apparently these older tanks are being ‘modernized’. The tanks date back from the Stalin era.
Russia’s Armata Tank. When the T-14 Armata tank was revealed in a 2015 May Victory Day parade it embarrassingly broke down. Seven years later the tank can be declared dead. Read about the demise of the Russia’s latest prototype tank. “Armata – the story is over”, by Sergio Miller, Wavall Room, February 10, 2023.

Fight for the Skies

MQ-9 Drone Incident. The Russian downing of an MQ-9 Reaper has resulted in some national defense observers examining the role of UAVs and the US involvement in the Ukraine Conflict. Liam Collins, PhD, a retired Special Forces colonel, provides his views of the incident. “Reaper Down: Three Takeaways from Russia’s Intercept of a US Unmanned Aerial Vehicle”, Modern War Institute at West Point, March 17, 2023.

Ukrainian Drones. Dodging incoming Russian mortars to spot where Russia is firing from is just a day in the life of a Ukrainian drone operator. Read an informative article by Howard Altman on the training drone operators receive and how the drone teams are employed. “Ukrainian Drone Pilot’s Frontline Account of Fighting Via Eyes in the Sky”, The War Zone, March 21, 2023.

New Russian Tactic. The Russians have been using emergency marine radio buoys to conduct more accurate strikes by aircraft or attack UAVs. The ACR RLB-37 GlobalFix buoys are dropped by UAVs. The transmission device provides a very accurate location signal for aerial attacks; it transmits coordinates of its location by using satellite communication. Russia is receiving drones from Iran and China.

F-16s and ‘Private Pilots’. One of the objections to providing Ukraine with the F-16 fighter is the extensive train-up needed for Ukrainian pilots. One retired U.S. F-16 pilot has a fix for that. “Deadliest F-16 pilot offers solution to Ukraine’s jet problem”, Euromaiden Press, March 18, 2023. It has been estimated that it would take six months to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. (Euromaiden Press, March 20, 2023).

Maritime Activities

Sabotage of Nordstream Pipelines. In September 2022 an unknown entity (Moscow perhaps?) attacked gas pipelines just outside Swedish and Danish territorial waters. This attack has awaken Europe to the vulnerability of the underwater maritime infrastructure. Read more in “Maritime Sabotage: Protecting Europe’s Soft Underbelly”, by Walker D. Mills, Irregular Warfare Initiative, March 19, 2023.

Black Sea. The latest reports from the Pentagon state that the Russians are keeping three Kalibr cruise missile-capable ships off the coast of Ukraine in the Black Sea. The Russians are reported to still be searching for the MQ-9 Reaper downed by Russian aircraft in the Black Sea. It is unknown if they will be successful in their recovery efforts.

Grain Exports. The Russians have agreed to extend the grain initiative agreement for four more months. Turkey was instrumental in negotiating this deal. This allows shipping vessels to transport grain from Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea to other countries around the world. Read more about Ukraine’s grain in “Saving Ukraine’s economy: the grain giant fighting for survival”, Financial Times, March 22, 2023.

World Response

ICC and Putin War Crimes. According to the International Criminal Court (ICC), Russian President Putin is responsible for the illegal deportation of hundreds of Ukrainian children to Russia. The arrest warrant will obligate the court’s 123 member states to arrest Putin and transfer him to The Hague for trial if he sets foot on their territory. “ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Putin over war crimes in Ukraine”, Reuters, March 17, 2023.

Russia and International Law. The Congressional Research Service has published a 6-page PDF entitled The Role of International Tribunals in the Response to the Invasion of Ukraine, March 22, 2023.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10704

China. President Xi Jinping met with President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Russia in late March. Likely topics of discussion probably included sanction evasion schemes, the supply of equipment to Russia, and Chinese involvement in a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine. It is believed that some of Putin’s goals for the summit were not met.

US Army – Permanent Presence in Poland? In an effort to improve command and control capabilities and manage forward operating sites, the Army has established the U.S. Army Garrison Poland in March 2023. The Army now has 11 locations where its troops are stationed in Poland. “Army establishes permanent garrison in Poland”, U.S. Army, March 21, 2023.

Ex-Navy SEAL (Korea) Arrested. A former Korean Navy special forces officer who went to Ukraine a year ago to help that country defend itself against Russia has been arrested upon his return to Korea. “Ex-Navy SEAL admits violating passport law”, The Korea Herald, March 20, 2023.

U.S. Airlines – Hurting Due to War. Shortly after western nations prohibited Russian airlines from flying over Europe and the United States President Putin did the same. He restricted U.S. airlines from transiting Russian airspace. This has benefited other international carriers from countries like UAE, India, and China. “Banned From Russian Airspace, US Airlines Look to Restrict Competitors”, The New York Times, March 17, 2023. (subscription)

Commentary

Defeating Russia. Hans Petter Midttun, a Norwegian naval officer, provides his perspective on what needs to be done for Ukraine to defeat Russia. The Russian winter offensive seems to be failing and Russian ground attacks have decreased significantly. However, the conditions that allow a successful counteroffensive by Ukraine have not yet been set. “What Ukraine needs to defeat Russia in 2023”, Euromaiden Press, March 22, 2023.

Appeasing Russia. Critics from the far right and far left are of the same view that Ukraine is not a conflict America should be involved in. The country is far away, it has never been an ally of the U.S., and Russia has some legitimate claims on part of the country. But there are some that fear what happens is the ‘appeasers’ win out. Read why giving in to Russia is a bigger mistake than Munich (1938). “The New Appeasement”, The Critic, January 2022.

Defense Strategy. Jim Mitre, a defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, sees the Ukraine conflict bringing about momentum for widespread change in the Defense Department. “How the Ukraine War Accelerates the Defense Strategy”, War on the Rocks, March 21, 2023.

Video – Historical Guide to Ukraine Conflict. The invasion of Ukraine is shattering the illusion that aggression is a relic of the past and a reminder that warmongering must be deterred by forceful resistance. “The Historical Guide to Dealing with Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine”, PolicyEd, YouTube, March 14, 2023, 3 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPL-pY2Q8sc

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Ukraine Conflict Update – March 16, 2023

SOF News — Thu, 16 Mar 2023 05:00:00 +0000

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Big Picture of the Conflict

Fight for Bakhmut. The Russians have still not yet captured all of Bakhmut, a small industrial city in eastern Ukraine. They do control the eastern portion of the city and approaches to the city from the north and south. However the Ukrainian forces have continued to defend the western portion of the city as well as a landroute to the west from which they receive supplies, ammunition, and personnel replacements. The city sits along key roads and railways in the Donbas region; however, control of the city is unlikely to tip the war’s outcome.

“Ukraine forces Russian troops to impale themselves on Bakhmut and then reload”, Washington Examiner, March 10, 2023. (subscription) Months of fighting have been costly for both sides; however, the Russians have expended a lot of equipment, material, and personnel in its quest to capture Bakhmut. The Urkrainians have made it very difficult for the Russians. The head of the Wagner Group, a paramilitary mercenary firm spearheading the Russian attack on Bakhmut, says the Ukrainian forces are putting up “colossal resistance” but insisted the Russian offensive would succeed.
“Bakhmut: The Battle That Decides the Ukraine War?”, 1945, March 16, 2023. As spring approaches many observers will be looking for signs of where the much-awaited Ukrainian offensive will take place. Will it be in the north, the south, or central region? Perhaps a clearing of Russians from Bakhmut is planned. The offensive will likely take place in early May when the ground is firm, Ukrainian troops finish their NATO training, and western armored vehicles and tanks are fully integrated into the Ukrainian military force structure.
“Defending Ukraine’s ‘highway of life’ – the last road out of Bakhmut”, The Washington Post, March 12, 2023. (subscription) A two-lane hardball road that connects Bakhmut to the rest of Ukraine is held by various units of the Ukrainian military. The Russians want to capture the road to prevent the medical evacuation of Ukrainian wounded and the transport of supplies and reinforcements to the Ukrainian fighters of Bakhmut. Who controls the road is key to the battle of Bakhmut.
“The Wagner Group is losing so many fighters in Bakhmut that it’s launching a recruitment drive”, Task & Purpose, March 11, 2023. No longer able to recruit from Russia’s prisons, the mercenary group is seeking volunteers from high schools across Russia.

Inexperienced Troops. Both Ukraine and Russia have lost thousands and thousands of their veteran, professional soldiers. Both nations are filling their ranks with inexperienced conscripts with little battle experience. In a war of attrition, this favors Russia – a nation with a much larger population pool to draw upon. The morale of the Ukrainian troops has shifted over the last few months; with fewer talking about victory and with complaints of ammunition shortages.

Ground Situation

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. The Institute for the Study of War presents a map that depicts the assessed control of terrain in Ukraine. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces as well as varioius other topics.

Tanks. “The Tactical and Strategic Value of Tanks”, Strategika, Hoover Institution, March 10, 2023. A lot of discussion has taken place on the value of tanks over the past year – a topic that has come to the forefront as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. Some say the ‘tank is dead’ – yet much is made of the huge impact the provision of western tanks like the Abrams, Challenger, and Leopard 2 will make when deployed to Ukraine. Sweden has announced that it will transfer 10 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Other nations have also contributed or have stated their intention to contribute tanks to the fight.

Poland has already sent 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. (Euromaiden Press, Mar 9, 2023).
Refurbished Leopard 1 tanks will arrive in Ukraine this spring. (The Warzone, Mar 11, 2023).
The Russian Army is running out of T-72 tanks quickly. (Forbes, Mar 12, 2023).
“Western Tanks vs Russian Armor: Who’s Winning”, SOFREP, March 8, 2023.

Artillery Comparison. Both nations are lobbing less artillery shells across the lines than last summer. The Russians are firing some 10,000 shells a day while the Ukrainians are firing about 3,000 a day. A combination of heavy daily use and limited stockpiles are the cause.

Fight for the Skies

U.S. Drone Downed by Russian Aircraft. A Su-27 jet fighter struck a U.S. Air Force ISR MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle’s propeller causing U.S. forces to bring it down into the international waters of the Black Sea. The bump in the sky happened after two Russian fighter jets dumped fuel on it. The incident took place on Tuesday morning, March 14, 2023. U.S. drones routinely fly a circular type route over the Black Sea monitoring the situation over Ukraine. “Russian Fighter Strikes U.S. Unmanned Aircraft”, U.S. Department of Defense, March 14, 2023. Watch a video of the incident, “US video shows moment Russian fighter jet collides with US drone”, Fox News, March 16, 2023.

Poland’s MiG-29s. Warsaw may be sending some fighter jets to Kyiv in a couple of months. This may happen if a broader coalition of nations join in the effort. “Poland my give Ukraine MiG-29 jets in next 4-6 weeks”, Reuters, March 14, 2023.

F-16s – a Mistake? The effectiveness of airpower on the battlefield in the Ukraine Conflict has been limited. Surface to Air missile systems like the Starstreak MANPAD have been so effective that pilots rarely attack enemy positions – the odds of success and survival are low. The F-16s are a fourth-generation fighter that would have to survive a fifth-generation SAM threat (systems like the S-400). Supplying F-16s to Ukraine would be a costly mistake. A better strategy would be to provide air-defense systems like the Patriot to kill Russian air power – and to continue to provide weapons like artillery and tanks to win on the ground. “Why Sending F-16s to Ukraine Would be a Mistake”, Real Clear Defense, March 16, 2023.

Russia’s Grom Standoff Weapons. Recent images of wreckage found on the battlefield indicate that air-launched standoff weapons are being employed by Russia. This is the first confirmed use of the Grom missile in over a year. This missile is believed to have been introduced in 2010. It has a warhead of about 700 pounds with a range of 62 miles. The weapon may offer a precision-guided fire-and-forget capability that can be used to strike static targets from a notable distance. “Evidence of Russia Using Grom Standoff Weapons in Ukraine Emerges”, by Emma Helfrich, The War Zone, March 15, 2023.

Maritime Activities

Black Sea Region. One of the most strategically important areas of the globe is the Black Sea. It can influence the course of events in the Ukraine Conflict. “The Black Sea Strategic Triangle in 2023 and Beyond”, Hoover Institution, March 7, 2023.

Black Sea Grain Deal. The deal to allow Ukrainian exports of grain to transit from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea through the Russian naval blockade to destinations around the world is set to expire on March 18. “Moscow open to extending Black Sea grain deal”, The Washington Post, March 13, 2023. (subscription)

World Response

Tracking Weapons. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has sent over $27 billion in security aid to Ukraine. These weapons are state-of-art; MANPADS, HIMARS, ATGM, MLRS, and more. Tracking these sophisticated weapons systems, without monitors on the ground observing, is challenging. One way of doing this is using OSINT to track the weapons systems. “Digitizing the Battlefield: Using Social Media to Track U.S. Weapons in Ukraine”, by Laura Courchesne, Lawfare Blog, March 14, 2023.

Ukraine and the Budget. U.S. Defense officials left Ukraine aid out of the Pentagon’s new budget request. DoD plans to continue to seek emergency funding from Congress. DoD is concerned that Republican opposition to the Ukraine aid could derail Congressional negotiations over the defense budget. “Pentagon keeps Ukraine aid out of budget, punting to divided Congress”, Defense News, March 13, 2023.

CIA Director Visit. William Burns, the head of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, met with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Warsaw on March 15 to discuss the current security situation in eastern Europe.

India – Russia Relations. The south Asian nation of India has long been a strategic partner of Russia in the diplomatic and international relations community. It also depends heavily on Russian weapons exports for its military. However, the Ukraine Conflict has caused India to re-evaluate its foreign policy towards Russia. “Continental Drift? India-Russia Ties After One Year of War in Ukraine”, Stimson, March 9, 2023.

Commentary

A Grinding War of Attrition. There are some national security observers who believe that the present rate of western aid and support to Ukraine will only result in a years long battle of attrition between Ukraine and Russia. Some advocate for a stepping up of the assistance and perhaps a revision of the ‘no boots on the ground’ stance. Hans Petter Midttun, a Norwegian military officer with lots of time in Ukraine, provides the details and his perspective. “The new strategy NATO needs to avoid a protracted war in Ukraine”, Euromaiden Press, March 13, 2023.

Putin, Ukraine, and History. Learn a little bit of history about Russian and Ukraine . . . Kyivan Rus. A great read if you have the time. “Imposing the Past: Putin’s War for History”, by Jade McGlynn, War on the Rocks, March 15, 2023.

Certain Victory for Ukraine? What about Casualties? A central theme has emerged in most western media outlets that Ukraine is beating Russia on the battlefield. Much is made of Russia’s personnel, equipment, tank, and aircraft losses. Less is known and reported on the personnel losses of the Ukrainian military. However, what is known is that Ukraine has suffered significant losses. It has been a brutal battle of attrition; one that Russia – with its much larger population base, would likely win. “The danger of downplaying the Ukrainian battlefield toll”, Responsible Statecraft, March 15, 2023.

Long Wars and Ukraine. George Friedman, a strategist on international affairs, writes about how quick victories by an attacker will sometimes end up being a protrated conflict. “Ukraine and the Long War”, Geopolitical Futures, March 15, 2023.

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Ukraine Conflict Update – March 7, 2023

SOF News — Tue, 07 Mar 2023 06:00:00 +0000

Image / Photo: Soldiers of 1 A Squadron, Queens Royal Lancers (QRL) patrolling outside Basra, Iraq onboard a Challenger 2 Main Battle Tank during Operation Telic 4. Photo by UK MoD.

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Big Picture of the Conflict

Fight for Bakhmut. The small city in eastern Ukraine is surrounded on three sides by the Russians. The Ukrainians will likely make the difficult decision to retreat from the industrial city before it is entirely surrounded. The Wagner Group, fighting alongside the Russian military, has been in the forefront in the fight for the city using waves upon waves of mercenaries and released prisoners to attack positions of the defenders. If the defenders retreat, it will be just a few kilometers to the rear to long-planned defensive positions. The city, with a prewar population of 70,000 is largely uninhabited – most of the people have fled – about 6,000 remain. Many of the buildings in the town have been completely destroyed or damaged. The fight for this city has gone on for over nine months. It is reported by NATO that the troop losses in the battle have been five Russians for every one Ukrainian. “Ukrainian forces cling to Bakhmut as Russia attacks from three sides”, The Washington Post, March 5, 2023. (subscription)

Bakhmut – Withdrawal Soon? Ukraine may soon decide that the costs of keeping the Russians out of a the city is too high. For many months the Russians have struggled to take the city – at great material and human cost. But a dogged defense by the Ukrainians along with poor tactics by the Russians have resulted in a long slog for the Russians. The cost of holding the city by the Ukrainians may soon outweigh the benefits. Taking the town of Bakhmut would be a symbolic victory for Moscow; although it is not operationally significant. It is very likely that Ukraine will conduct a time-phased, methodical withdrawal from the city to well-prepared positions just to the west of Bakhmut. However, there are news reports that Ukrainian generals are asking President Zelensky to keep troops in Bakhmut. (The Kyiv Independent, Mar 6, 2023). The request may have been successful – there are reports that more Ukrainian reinforcements are heading to Bakhmut.

“Ukraine may ‘strategically pull back’ from embattled Bakhmut”, The Hill, March 1, 2023.
See also “Fortress Bakhmut” by Seth Cropsey, Real Clear Defense, March 6, 2023.
And there is a comprehensive study of the fight in “The End of the Battle of Bakhmut?” by Phillips OBrien, Phillips Newsletter, March 5, 2023.
“Bakhmut defenders double down – Zelensky”, BBC News, March 6, 2023.
“Ukrainian civilians grapple with heart-wrenching decisions as Russin forces surround Bakhmut”, CBS News, March 6, 2023.

Ground Situation

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces. The Institute for the Study of War presents a map that depicts the assessed control of terrain in Ukraine as of March 6, 2023, 3:00 PM ET. They also provide an interactive time-lapse map of the war.

Stalemate on Front Lines. There has not been a lot of movement on the ground across the frontlines in Ukraine over the past few months. The long-awaited Russian offensive either hasn’t happened or was much less than expected. The Ukrainians are still waiting on the arrival of armored personnel carriers and main battle tanks from Western European nations. That, and the weather and terrain conditions are not yet condusive for large-scale maneuver operations. Once the snow has melted, the spring thaw passes, and the ground is firm then offenses by either side may very well take place. Some experts following the year believe that, although Ukraine cannot dislodge the Russians from the coast of the Sea of Azov, the Russians are not going to make much headway either. One of the biggest reasons is the Russians are not learning from their past mistakes over the last year. (Slate, Mar 6, 2023).

Tanks and Russia. A year ago it seemed as though Russia’s numerical superiority in tanks would assure the country a quick victory. Apparently the only thing all those tanks did was provide Ukrainians with a target-rich environment for their inexpensive shoulder-fired weapons and improvised explosive-laden drones. Watch a video that explores the real reasons Russian tanks keep failing in Ukraine. (Sandboxx, Feb 24, 2023, 20 mins).

Tanks and Ukraine. Western tanks will be able to outperform Russian tanks and will make a difference on the battlefield. However; that depends on how many, when they will arrive, and if the proper logisitical and maintenance programs and training are in place. “How Western Tanks Will Make a Difference in Ukraine”, CEPA, January 26, 2023. The struggle to deliver Leopard 2 tanks for use against Russian forces has exposed just how unprepared European militaries are. “Scrounging for Tanks for Ukraine, Europe’s Armies Come up Short”, The New York Times, February 28, 2023. (subscription). However, some of the modern battle tanks are making their way to Ukraine; like the Leapard 2 tanks provided by Poland. (Breaking Defense, Feb 24, 2023).

UKR Bn Completes CA Training. Ukrainian soldiers have graduated from the first battalion comined arms training course at the U.S. Army’s Grafenwoehr training area in Germany. The training was focused on the M2 Bradley fighting vehicle. About 635 Ukrainians completed the five-week long course. “Ukrainian battalion completes first combined-arms training in Germany”, Army Times, February 17, 2023.

Fight for the Skies

Ukraine SOF and Drones. An informative article describes the role of drones in Ukrainian special forces operations, how Ukrainian SF are leveraging drones for surveillance and intelligence gathering, and how the drones are enhancing the capabilities of Ukraine’s SOF. “The Role of Drones in Ukrainian Special Forces Operations”, TS2.space, March 2023.

Starlink and Drones. Portable sat-comm gear feeds drone video to Ukrainian artillery batteries and provide battlefield situational awareness to commanders. Read about the men and women of Ukraine’s 93rd Brigade “Seneca” drone unit; a unit using commercial ‘off-the-shelf’ drones, Starlink, and Google Meet in the effort to defeat the Russians. “How Elon Musk’s Starlink is Still Helping Ukraine’s Defenders”, Defense One, March 1, 2023.

F-16s for Ukraine? Retired Colonel Jeffrey Fischer lays out a plan for how Ukraine can get advanced jet fighters to fight the Russians. “Retired Air Force Colonel Lays Out ‘Affordable’ Plan to Get Ukraine F-16s”, Newsweek, February 22, 2023.

Maritime Operations

Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR) on this front. It is expected that naval warfare is poised to play a smaller role in year 2 of the Ukraine War. (Breaking Defense, Feb 24, 2023). Turkey is working behind the scenes to arrange for more grain shipments from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.

U.S. and Ukraine

SAG-Ukraine . . . Officer Reassignment. Brig. Gen. Ronald R. Ragin, deputy commander for support, Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, Germany, will be posted to be commanding general, 21st Theater Sustainment Command, U.S. Army Europe-Africa, Germany.

More U.S. Aid to Ukraine. On March 3, 2023, the Department of Defense announced it was transferring up to $400 million in military equipment to Ukraine. The security assistance package features ammunition and support equipment. The package includes ammo for HIMARS and artillery pieces, armored vehicle-launched bridges, demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing, and more. Read a list of the equipment to be provided.

CRS Report – Aid to Ukraine. The Congressional Reseach Service has updated its U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine “In Focus” report. This one is dated February 27, 2023 and is a 3-page long PDF. Topics include an overview of programs since 2014, the provision of defense equipment, recent legislation, and the prospect of future assistance. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040

More U.S. Funding? Not a Sure Thing. The Republicans in the House of Representatives could very well make future funding bills for Ukraine problematic. Supplemental appropriations may not pass as smoothly as it has in the past. The Biden administration will have to be more creative in its approach to Congress on this issue. There are six potential options that can be used to solve this potential problem. Read about them in “U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine is Going to Get Complicated”, War on the Rocks, March 3, 2023. For more on this topic monitor a virtual event by the Hudson Institute entitled Support for Ukraine’s Defense in the 118th Congress to take place on Friday, March 10, 2023. Luke Coffey and Representative Seth Moulton (D-MA) are the featured speakers.

Accountability of U.S. Aid. Thus far, as the end of February, the United States had provided over $31 billion in support to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion one year ago. Allies and partners have provided over $19 billion during that timeframe. With so much material and equipment flowing into a combat zone it is only natural that some ‘stuff’ will be diverted. U.S. officials have been up front with their Ukrainian counterparts regarding the importance of accountability and transparency. Read more in “U.S. Ensures Accountability of Systems Supplied to Ukraine”, DoD News, February 28, 2023.

DOS and Justice in Ukraine. The U.S. Department of State explains how it is holding individuals accountable for war crimes and other atrocities in the Ukraine conflict. Read more in “Supporting Justice and Accountability in Ukraine”, DoS, February 18, 2023.

US SOF Learn Lessons From Ukraine. Russia’s struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they’ll need to fight without their ‘tethers’ to win future wars. The war shows that a robust logistical network is needed to sustain frontline forces; however – for US special operators a network won’t always be available. Business Insider, February 28, 2023.

UKR SOF – “Test Your Gear”. At a special operations conference held in Florida Ukrainian SOF said that U.S. defense manufacturers should bring their gear to Ukraine to try it out againsta an enemy. “Come Test Year Gear Against Russian Forces, Ukrainians Urge US Defense Firms”, Defense One, March 3, 2023.

World Response

NATO and Undersea Infrastructure. The sabotage of the Nord Stream energy pipeline in September 2022 has the North Atlantic Treaty Organization forming up the Critical Undersea Infrastructure Protection Cell. The organization will enable better coordination between key military and civilian stakeholders and with industry. “NATO stands up undersea infrastructure coordination cell”, NATO, February 15, 2023.

Luxembourg – Providing Outsized Aid. The tiny country in western Europe has a small army of 1,000, one cargo plane, two helicopters, and fewer than 200 trucks. But it has some money to spend so it is buying weapons and military equipment on the open market and sending to Ukraine. “How a Tiny NATO Nation Tackled a Big Problem: Arming Ukraine”, The New York Times, February 17, 2023. (subscription).

UN – Demands Russian Withdrawal. The United Nations General Assembly has called for ending the war in Ukraine and demanded Russia’s immediate withdrawal from the country. The world body adopted the resolution during an emergency special session. There were 141 Member States in favor and seven against. The seven against included North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia, and Syria. China, India, and Pakistan were among the 32 abstentions. “UN General Assembly calls for immediate end to war in Ukraine”, UN News, February 23, 2023.

Report – China and Russia Relations. In the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s reliance on China’s economic and political support has grown. A CRS report identifies key features of the relationship, PRC and Russian perspectives of the relationship, and areas of cooperation between the countries on matters of defense, energy, economics, and the global order. China-Russia Relations, Congressional Research Service (CRS), February 24, 2023, PDF, 3 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12100

Wagner Group

Wagner Group and Bakhmut. Regular Russian troop formations and units of a Russian paramilitary group are engaged in the fighting against the Ukrainian defenders in Bakhmut for many months. However, it appears that there may be a ‘rift’ between the two ‘allied’ forces. “Russia’s Wagner boss suggests ‘betrayal’ in Bakhmut battle”, BBC.com, March 6, 2023. The number of fighters with the Wagner Group in eastern Ukraine is apparently around 50,000 strong. Sean McFate briefs us on three ancient strategems to win against mercenaries drawn from history that could turn the tide of the war for Ukraine. “How to Defeat Russia’s Mercenaries”, Newsweek, March 6, 2023.

Mercenaries – at the End of the Ukraine Conflict. When the conflict ends in eastern Europe the thousands of mercenaries (those that manage to live through the war) will likely end up in hot spots in Africa. The Wagner Group and other international paramilitary organizations will have a huge recruit pool to hire from. “Mercenary Shocks: What the War in Ukraine Will Eventually Mean for Africa”, by Raphael Parens, War on the Rocks, February 17, 2023.

Report – Putin’s Stealth Mobilization. Candace Rondeaux and Ben Dalton provide a detailed and informative account of Russian irregulars and the Wagner Group’s Shadow Command Structure. New America, February 22, 2023.

Commentary

Report – Avoiding a Long War. Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe argue that the Ukraine war is not going to end soon. In this publication they discuss U.S. policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. RAND Corporation, PDF, 32 pages, January 2023. The paper is a topic of discussion in a podcast posted by War on the Rocks, February 16, 2023, one hour, entitled One Year of War in Ukraine.

Understanding Putin. There is a lot of speculation of what Putin will do if he is ‘victorious’ in Ukraine – does he go further into eastern Europe in future years? At the same time national security observers worry on what he will do if he starts to lose in a big way – does he use tactical nukes? Most people are guessing and don’t really know. “The Guessing Game about What Putin Will Do If He Begins to Lose Even More Badly in Ukraine”, McFaul’s World, March 3, 2023. Also by McFaul is “Why Vladimir Putin’s Luck Ran Out”, Journal of Democracy, February 2023.

Podcast – European Land Warfare. Kyle Atwell hosts Dr. Benedetta Berti and Lieutenant Colonel Jordan Becker in a podcast entitled The Politics of Coalition Warfare. It focuses on the lessons learned in Ukraine and the strategic and political dynamics of the NATO alliance. Modern War Institute at West Point, March 6, 2023, 48 minutes.

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine Conflict Update – Feb 7, 2023

SOF News — Tue, 07 Feb 2023 06:00:00 +0000

Image / Photo: A German Army Leopard 2 tank, assigned to 104th Panzer Battalion, moves through the Joint Multinational Readiness Center during Saber Junction 2012 in Hohenfels, Germany, Oct. 25, 2012. Photo by Specialist Markus Rauchenberger, U.S. Army.

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Ground Situation

Current operations by the Russians are concentrated in the country’s east. There are reports in the media that these operations are lacking proper coordination and that there is a lack of interaction between the Wagner Group and the Russian military units. Tens of thousands of recently mobilized Russian soldiers have arrived at the front; negating to an extent the qualitative advantage the Ukrainians have had thus far in the conflict. Many reports indicate that the Russians have at least 300,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

A Russian Offensive in February? Ukrainian officials are expecting a large general offensive by the Russians in mid-February or around February 24th – the anniversary of last years invasion. The timing of the Russian offensive is critical; it has to take place after a sufficient number of reinforcements have arrived in the area of the conflict – most likely eastern Ukraine. The stock of fuel, ammunition, and other supplies must be replenished to support a general offensive. The operation has to take place before the muddy spring season and prior to the arrival of Western armored fighting vehicles and tanks. Read more in “Ukraine braced for renewed Russian offensive later in February”, BBC News, February 6, 2023.

Degrading Russian Forces. For their part, the Ukrainians are degrading the supply and logistic network of Russia, causing many Russian casualities, and limiting any advances by the Russians to small parcels of hard-fought territory. The Russian logistical depots have been pulled back from the front due to the ability of HIMARS to range beyond the front lines. The introduction of the GLSDB HIMARS munitions will mean that the Ukrainians will be able to strike even deeper into Russian rear areas. The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs provide the HIMARS with an increase of range from 80km to 150km. This will cause the Russians to pull their logistical nodes even further back from the front and will allow the disruption of critical bridge crossings that supply convoys must pass over.

Tanks for Ukraine. The news that Western nations will soon supply Ukraine with modern main battle tanks like the Abrams, Leopard 2, and Challenger is still on the front pages of the media. Unfortunately, the decision to send tanks is belated; it would have been better if the decision was made earlier in the year. Since the decision was made so late it won’t be until late 2023 that Abrams tanks will arrive in Ukraine; too late to stop a spring offensive by the Russians or for the Ukrainians to conduct their own push to the east. The Leopards and Challengers should arrive sooner. Once the tanks arrive they will add an offensive punch; especially when combined with the numerous armored fighting vehicles like the newly deployed Bradleys. However welcome the news is about the soon-to-be deployed tanks to Ukraine, one must remember that the total number of tanks to be sent is small and are unlikely to have a significant impact on the outcome of the war.

Here are some articles on the topic of tanks from the last few weeks:

“Tanking Up: Understanding the material – and moral – implications of the new armor heading to Ukraine”, by Frank Hoffman, Modern War Institute at West Point, February 3, 2023.
“The Weight of NATO Tanks May Pose a Problem in Ukraine”, Newsweek, February 5, 2023.
“Germany adds older Leopard 1s to the list of tanks for Ukraine”, The New York Times, February 3, 2023.
“Tanks a Lot (Well, Actually Not That Many for Ukraine)”, by Robert E. Hamilton, Foreign Policy Research Institute, February 2, 2023.
“Tanks and what they mean for the Ukraine War’s endgame”, by John A. Nagl, Pennsylvania Capital-Star, February 3, 2023.

Battle For Bakhmut. For months the Russians have been trying to take the eastern city from the Ukrainians – and with tremendous losses. The offensive for Bakhmut may likely continue and Ukraine will face the agonizing choice over whether to withdraw or face having units surrounded. The city is becoming increasingly isolated. The key to the battle is keeping the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway open – a critical supply route for the Ukrainian army and evacuation artery for civilians. There are over 5,000 civilians still in Bakhmut. Thus far, the fight for this city has been the longest battle of the war. Taking the Bakhmut city and surrounding area is important to controlling the whole of the Donbas region. “Battle of Bakhmut nears tipping point as Russia intensifies offensive”, by Christopher Miller, Finanicial Times, February 2, 2023.

Phases of Russia’s Invasion. Serge Havrylets, a Kyiv-based journalist, explains how Russia has been changing its tactics in the war against Russia. He describes the invasion as one of four phases. Read more in “Evolution of Russian Tactics in Ukraine: From failed blitzkrieg to assault infantry”, Euromaidan Press, January 31, 2023.

Phase I: Blitzkrieg – a large-scale rapid operation from the air, land, and water.
Phase 2: Tank Breakthrough – taking place in April and May, use of tanks with massive artillery fires; followed by use of battalion task groups to establish a bridgehead.
Phase 3: Probing the Defense – smaller units engaged in local fighting, seeking weak spots in the defense; then followed with a large-scale assault.
Phase 4: Assault Infantry with artillery support. This is described as a creeping occupation. Most of the units are former convicts and mercenaries of the Wagner Group. These units are then followed into battle by the recently mobilized soldiers.

Fight for the Skies

Drone Factory. U.S. officials believe that Iran will assist Russia in the building of a facility that will produce about 6,000 drones to be used in Ukraine. The Russians are employing a number of drones that the Iranians have sent to Russia. There are reports that the Iranians will help Russia develop a Shahed-136 model that will have a new engine for a faster and farther flight. The senior leadership of an Iranian firm, Paravar Pars, has been sanctioned by the United States because the shipment of UAVs to Russia. Iran-produced UAVs are attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. See “U.S. Sanctions Leadership of Iranian UAV Manufacturer”, U.S. Department of State, February 3, 2023.

Air Defense Equipment: From U.S. to Ukraine. The Department of Defense announced that it will be providing another security assistance package to Ukraine. This will include a long-range fires capability as well as various types of equipment to defend against Russian missile attacks. “Air Defense Systems, Long-Range Fires Capability to be Sent to Ukraine”, DoD News, February 3, 2023.

Maps

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Interactive map by Institute for the Study of War. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces.

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

General Information and Commentary

Negotiations. There was a recent prisoner exchange. Ukraine received more than one hundred ‘defenders’ in exchange for POWs sent to Russia. No sign of possible negotiations between the two countries in the near future.

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. View the UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily), https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine. As of January 31, 2023, the number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection in Europe is over 4.8 million; according to UNHCR.

Wagner Group. The Russian paramilitary corporation has suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine. It has been recruiting prisoners, foreign recruits, and some Russians to fill its ranks in the units fighting in Ukraine. The Wagner Group units have featured prominently in the ground action in eastern Ukraine; especially in the Bakhmut region. The company has grown from 5,000 seasoned veterans to a force of 50,000. But the paramilitary group is not just busy in Ukraine; it has increased its presence in some of the more volatile countries in Africa.

“Wagner Group Redefined: Threats and Responses”, by Raphael Parens, Foreign Policy Research Institute, January 30, 2023.
“Countering the Wagner Group and Degrading Russia’s War Efforts in Ukraine”, by Antony Blinken, Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State Press Statement, January 26, 2023.
“Actions to Counter Wagner and Degrade Russia’s War Efforts in Ukraine”, U.S. Department of State Fact Sheet, January 26, 2023.

China Aid to Russia. Russian government-owned defense companies are receiving navigation equipment, jamming technology, and jet fighter parts from China. In addition, thousands of dual-use goods, that have both commercial and military applications, are being provided to Russia. Many critical components (like semiconductors, commercial drones, etc.) needed for Russia’s war machine are on a sanctions list; however, nations like Turkey, China, and the UAE are key in avoiding these sanctions. “China Aids Russia’s War in Ukraine, Trade Data Shows”, The Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2023.

Australian Trainers in UK. Some Ukrainian recruits have been receiving military training in the United Kingdom. Over seventy Australian personnel arrived in the UK in late January to join a U.K.-led multinational mission named Operation Interflex to train the Ukrainians.

Key Leadership Changes. A new head for Ukraine’s defense may soon be appointed. It seems that the current defense minister is going to resign (or be told to resign) and be moved to the Ministry of Strategic Industries. The dismissal may be tied to allegations of corruption in the defense ministry. The Chief of Military Intelligence is rumored to become the next defense minister. President Zelensky has nominated a new head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Vasyl Maliuk has been the acting head of the security agency since July 2022. The also “Ukraine expects leadership shake-up, with defense minister replaced by military intel chief”, The Washington Post, February 5, 2023. (subscription)

Change in European Politics and Leadership. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Nordic and eastern European countries have taken a stronger role in European politics. They are now seen as driving some of the policy issues of the European Union (EU) and NATO. One example is the sending of modern main battle tanks to Ukraine; they pressed Washington and Berlin hard for this to happen. Perhaps these smaller nations are, because of their proximity to Russia, more aware of the threat posed by their big neighbor to the east.

Banning Russian Diesel. A 27-nation bloc will prohibit imports of Russian gasoline, diesel, and other products used throughout Europe. “Europe bans Russian oil products, the latest strike on the Kremlin war chest”, National Public Radio, February 5, 2023.

Russian Classics. Some folks that study Russian literature are giving it another look and coming away with differing opinions. Read how to reckon with the ideology of “Anna Karenina,” “Eugene Oneign,” and other ‘beloved’ books. “Rereading Russian Classics in the Shadow of the Ukraine War”, The New Yorker, January 30, 2023.

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine Conflict Update – January 2023

SOF News — Tue, 31 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0000

Image / Photo: Destroyed Russian tanks in the Sumy region, Ukraine. Photo by Irina Rybakova, press service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, March 7, 2022.

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Top Story – Tanks for Ukraine

The biggest news of the past week is the announcement that Germany and the United States will be providing main battle tanks to Ukraine. The German Leopard 2 tank and the U.S. M1 Abrams tank on the battlefield will significantly increase the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend against Russian offensives and provide more ‘punch’ to Ukrainian offensive operations. The announcement has generated a lot of media attention – one of the more informative and comprehensive news articles was penned by John Amble and John Spencer. “Leopards Into the Fray: How will German Tanks Affect the Battlefield Balance in Ukraine?”, Modern War Institute at West Point, January 27, 2023.

Leopard vs the Abrams. Most European nations have fielded the Leopard 2, so the delivery, maintenance, logistics, and training for the Leopard will be more easily done than the Abrams. The Leopards may very well be employed by late spring or early summer; while the Abrams are likely at least a year away from seeing combat in Ukraine. A lot of points were burned in the diplomatic effort of getting the Germans to this point; something that they will not forget, especially if they face economic reprisals from the Russians in the future.

Quality vs. Quanity. While the introduction of 100+ Abrams and Leopards will certainly give Ukraine a qualitative advantage, the fact that Russia has thousands of T-72s in storage that can be fielded over time is something to consider. Using waves of T-72s to take out the new tanks is one tactic the Russians can use; then follow with employment of the more modern and capable Russian T-90. Of course, along with the ‘quality’ of the Western tanks is the ‘long tail’ required for fuel, spare parts, maintenance, and logistics. Here is a look at some of the tanks that are found in Russia’s inventory. “Russian Heavy Metal: Putin’s Four Main Battle Tanks”, Soldier of Fortune Magazine, January 30, 2023.

Combined Arms Training Needed. The Abrams, Leopards, Challengers, and T-72s will add a good offensive punch to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, it needs to integrate the tanks with artillery and infantry. This requires training in combined arms maneuver – being versed in strategy and tactics. And that requires practice – which will be hard to do to prepare for soon-to-arrive 2023 spring offensives. “Tanks Alone Won’t Turn the Tide of the War in Ukraine”, The New York Times, January 27, 2023. (subscription)

Bridges – a Problem? One concern of fielding these modern tanks (in addition to feul, training, ammunition, maintenance, and logistics) is the state of the bridges in Ukraine. Many bridges spanning rivers in Eastern Europe will have trouble bearing the weight of tanks exceeding 60 tons. There are a lot of rivers in Ukraine; maybe not in the part that is east of the Dneiper, but enough to be worth considering. One of the real challenges of tank warfare is getting them across rickety Soviet-era bridges. (Breaking Defense, Feb 6, 2020). Check out maps that depict the location of rivers in Ukraine. (National Security Info).

Ground Situation

Static Situation. For the most part, over the past several weeks the ground war has been mostly static, with the exception of Russian forces trying to take Bakhmut (Google Maps) and Ukrainian forces mounting an offensive near Kreminna. (Google Maps). The Russians have experienced heavy casualties in their efforts to take Bakhmut.

Soledar in Russian Hands? A long fight has taken place for a town in the eastern region of Donbas – with heavy casualties on both sides. Most reports indicate that the Russians have achieved a rare but modest victory in the capture of Soledar (Google Maps).

Massive Strike on New Year’s Day. Just two minutes past midnight on New Year’s Day the Ukrainian military launched a HIMARS strike on a vocational school in the town of Makiivka (Google Maps) in the Russian-controlled Donetsk region that was being used as an assembly area for newly mobilized Russian soldiers. Estimates vary, depending on the news source, on the number of killed and injured – ranging from 200 to 600 KIA and many more WIA. In additional, military material and ammunition stocks were destroyed in the strike.

Winter Fighting – Advantage Ukraine? Brian Frydenborg writes that with the onset of winter the Ukrainians will likely fare better than the Russians. He says that logistics, morale, supply lines, and home turf are factors that favor Ukraine over Russia. “Uneven Snows: Why Winter Will Hurt Russia’s Military Far More Than Ukraine’s”, Small Wars Journal, January 1, 2023.

Another Russian Offensive? Some national security observers believe that Russia is positioning itself for another big offensive – one to take place in the next few months. Many of the Russians mobilized in the Fall of 2022 were sent to the front very quickly – lacking sufficient equipment and training. However, some were held back and formed into units; providing more capable reinforcements in time for a late winter or spring offensive. Although Russia has suffered tremendous losses in personnel and equipment – these losses are being offset with large mobilizations of Russians to fill out depleted units and establish new ad hoc units. In addition, domestic production of weapons and equipment has stepped up in Russia. Iran and North Korea have been providing assistance; in the case of Iran, a lot of drones have found there way to the Ukraine conflict. Many observers point to the Luhansk Oblast region as a target of the Russians once weather conditions improve.

Ukraine’s Bohdana Howitzer. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon receive 155mm howitzers that they have manufactured in Ukraine. The 2S22 Bohdana is a NATO-caliber 155-mm self-propelled howitzer on a wheeled truck. The production of these new artillery systems began in the spring of 2022. “Ukraine organized manufacturing of indigenous 155mm self-proplelled howitzer Bohdana”, Euromaiden Press, January 27, 2023.

Fight for the Skies

Ukraine Conflict in the Air. One of the surprises of the conflict in Ukraine has been the failure of Russia’s Air Force to achieve many of the objectives that national security observers thought would happen within the first few days of the conflict in February 2022. Military analysts had assumed that Ukraine’s air defenses would be destroyed and its aircraft shot out of the sky. This has not happened. However, there has been some Russian success. They have established local air superiority over the eastern zone of Ukraine where their troops hold territory; and they have been able to mount devastating attacks against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure causing electrical power and energy shortages. But still, Russia’s Air Force has been underwhelming in its contributions to the overall war effort. “How Ukraine Fought Against Russia’s Air War”, Lawfare Blog, January 22, 2023.

A Fragile Russian Air Force. The Russian Air Force has struggled over the past year in the Ukraine conflict. It entered the war lacking fully trained pilots and used the ones it had poorly. The use of veteran instructor pilots in combat roles is leading to a diminished capacity to train new pilots and to less experienced instructors due to combat losses. “Prolonged fighting in Ukraine is revealing the Russian air force’s fragility, researches say”, Business Insider, January 1, 2023.

Defeating the Russians in the Sky. Lt. Gen. Mykhailo Zabrodskyi of the Ukraine defense forces explains how the enemy air operations can be degraded. “Patriotic War: The Rivalry is in the Air”, Ukrinform.net, December 21, 2022.

‘Closing the Sky’. There are a number of emergent actions that should be taken to stop the constant rain of Russian missiles on Ukrainian military and civilian targets. “Four things Ukraine needs to close the sky in 2023”, Euromaidan Press.

Drone Warfare. In the past few years it has become apparent that large nations are not the only countries that can employ drones in warfare. During the peak of the fight against ISIS in Iraq, drones were employed by the Islamic State. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan saw very effective use of small armed drones used on a large scale. The eyes of many in the national security world are focused on how drones are changing the nature of warfare in the Ukraine Russia conflict. Turkey comes out a winner with its Bayraktar TB2 drone proving to provide a very effective punch for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Read more in “Mass-market military drones have changed the way wars are fought”, MIT Technology Review, January 30, 2023. See also “Ukraine Building Strike Drone Units”, The Defense Post, Inder Singh Bisht, January 30, 2023.

And Now . . . F-16s. Ukraine has got the decisions made for the supplying of main battle tanks by NATO countries. Next up? We will hear a lot about the need to defeat the Russians in the air and the need of F-16s to do that. President Biden says no U.S. F-16s will go to Ukraine. Olaf Scholz says that Germany will not send fighters to Ukraine as well. That doesn’t mean that F-16s won’t go to a European country that will in turn pass off their older fighters to Ukraine. France is open to sending fighters jets, as well as Poland.

Maritime Activities

There has not been a lot of maritime activity in recent months. The Russians continue to use their naval ships to launch missile attacks against Ukrainian military targets and civilian infrastructure. In addition, blockade activity continues, depriving Ukraine access to the Black Sea. The threat from sea mines remains high.

Maps

Mine Awareness Map
https://mine.dsns.gov.ua/
The State Service for Emergency Situations of Ukraine has an interactive map of mined areas.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces.

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

General Information

New Russian Paramilitary Group. A new military group, reportedly affiliated with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, has been active in Ukraine. The private military group has been spotted near the Ukrainian city of Vuhledar in Donest Oblast. It is said that the Patriot private military company is in competition with the Wagner mercenary group. “Another Russian Private Army Joins Ukraine War”, International Business Times, December 28, 2022.

Ukraine’s ‘Q’ Course. U.S. Army Special Forces helped the Ukrainian military set up a version of the Green Beret Qualification course. The ‘Q’ course assesses candidates under stress and pressure and teaches them the basics of their profession. Special Operations Command Europe, using members of the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group, developed the course for the Ukrainians. “US special operators borrowed a unique part of Army Green Beret training to prepare Ukrainians to fight Russia”, Business Insider, January 24, 2023.

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. View the UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily), https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.

World Response

More Military Equipment to Ukraine. In January the United States announced a $2.5 billion assistance package for Ukraine – featuring Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Stryker armored personnel carriers, ammunition, MRAPs, missiles, and more. Germany is providing Marder infantry fighting vehicles, France is providing AMX-10 light tanks, and Sweden is donating CV90 infantry fighting vehicles and howitzers. Many other European countries are also providing equipment – to include helicopters, UAVs, and more.

U.S. Financial Support. The Congressional Research Service has published a two-page brief entitled U.S. Direct Financial Support for Ukraine. PDF, January 10, 2023.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12305

CRS Report on Ukraine. An updated Congressional Research Service report entitled U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine describes the U.S. programs to Ukraine since 2014, types of defensive equipment, and future U.S. assistance. CRS, January 26, 2023, PDF, 2 pages.

Oversight on U.S. Assistance to Ukraine. Billions of dollars have gone to assisting the Ukrainian government and its military in their fight against the Russians. Naturally, there is concern that the money, weapons, and equipment are being used for the purpose for which they were sent. The U.S. has a plan for monitoring this vast aid flowing into Ukraine. The Inspector Generals of the Department of State, Department of Defense, and U.S. Agency for International Development are combining their efforts to provide oversight that is comprehensive, relevant, and transparent. Read more in JSOP-Ukraine Response: Joint Strategic Oversight Plan for Ukraine Response, DoS OIG, January 2023, PDF, 42 pages.

Commentary

Report – Baltic Conflict: Russia’s Goal to Distract NATO? Courtney Herdt and Matthew Zublic have published an eight-page report about the Russian threat to the Baltic states. They outline the danger that Russia poses to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithania – as well as to other nations in the region. In addition, the authors provide recommended near-term, medium-term, and long-term actions that the Baltic region states and NATO should take to mitigate the Russian threat. Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), November 2022, PDF, 8 pages. https://www.csis.org/analysis/baltic-conflict-russias-goal-distract-nato

Resistance in Ukraine. Otto C. Fiala, a retired USAR Civil Affairs officer with SOF experience, provides his thoughts on the use of irregular warfare in the Ukraine conflict. Fiala is one of the authors of Special Operations Command (SOCEUR) and partner nations of the Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) that was developed after the Russian occupation of eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014. “Resilience and Resistance in Ukraine”, Small Wars Journal, December 31, 2022.

‘Peace Through Exhaustion’. Many wars and conflict end without a clear victory by either side. Some end with one side more ‘exhausted’ than the other; forcing it to make some concessions at the negotiation table. Some wars end with both sides equally ‘exhausted’. The war is being fought on Ukraine soil; infrastructure damaged, an economy in ruins, high unemployment, and a limited manpower pool. The Russians are suffering heavy losses within its military ranks but it has a manpower pool three times that of Ukraine. Read more in “Peace by exhaustion in Ukraine”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), January 25, 2023.

Three Scenarios Where War Ends. The Ukraine conflict could end sooner than many national security observers are forecasting. Read of a few ways that this could happen. “How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected”, The RAND Blog, January 17, 2023.

Russia, Manpower, and Reconsitution of Units. The Russians have taken significant losses over the past year in the Ukraine conflict. The mobilization of new recruits has not been a great success. Many have been sent to the frontlines with inadequate training and equipment as either replacements for depleted units or as members of an ad how unit haphazardly thrown together and pressed into the fight. There are lessons the U.S. Army could learn from Russia’s experience in fighting a protracted war with heavy casualties. Read more in “A People Problem: Learning From Russia’s Failing Efforts to Reconstitute Its Depleted Units in Ukraine”, by Michael G. Anderson, Modern War Institute at West Point, January 26, 2023.

Book Review – The Road to Unfreedom. Howard Ahmanson reviews a book by Timothy Snyder – a pub that intends to warn us about the threats to ‘freedom’ in America, Europe, and Russia. In his book, Snyder provides an early history of Russia and Ukraine and tries to explain something he refers to as ‘Christian fascist’ ruling ideology of ‘Holy’ Russia. “Timothy Snyder on the History Behind the Ukraine War”, Blog, January 3, 2023.

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Tanks Heading to Ukraine Soon

SOF News — Fri, 27 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0000

In the next several months, several NATO countries will be turning over main battle tanks to Ukraine. These tanks will be a tremendous help to Ukraine in resisting Russian offensives and in conducting their own offensive operations.

Background. Over the past year long and intense discussions have taken place among NATO allies behind the scenes and in the media over the issue of providing tanks to Ukraine. The country has requested more than 300 modern main battle tanks with which to resist the Russian invaders. The U.S. M1A2 Abrams tank is a superb choice; however maintenance and logistic issues are a big concern. The United States has, up to now, refused to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Many defense analysts believe the best solution would be the German Leopard 2; however, for a number of pragmatic and cultural reasons, Germany has resisted. Germany has insisted that the United States pitch in – supplying tanks as part of a broader effort.

U.S. Reverses Course. The United States announced on Wednesday, January 25, 2023, that it would provide 31 Abrams tanks. The Germans quickly followed with an announcement that it would provide 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks. Germany also indicated that it would allow other nations to export their German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine as well. The Germans were under immense diplomatic pressure to provide the tanks, but insisted on the U.S. doing the same. While President Biden has said that the U.S. decision to send tanks to Ukraine had nothing to do with the Germans demand for U.S. participation, there are skeptics who question his assertion.

Abrams Tanks. The DoD announced that the Abrams tanks are being procured via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). The total package is $400 million and includes 31 Abrams tanks with 120mm rounds and other ammunition, eight M88 tactical vehicles to recover equipment, support vehicles and equipment, and funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment. This equipment is the equivalent of one Ukrainian tank battalion. The 68-ton tank has a 120-mm gun and can move about 72 kmh or 45 mph. The United States has 2,645 Abrams tanks of various modifications in service and 3,450 Abrams tanks in storage.

Photo: A German Army Leopard 2 tank, assigned to 104th Panzer Battalion, moves through the Joint Multinational Readiness Center during Saber Junction 2012 in Hohenfels, Germany, Oct. 25, 2012. Photo by Specialist Markus Rauchenberger, U.S. Army.

Leopard Tanks. A European consortium, including Germany and other nations, will be providing two battalions (80 tanks?) of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Some of the other countries mentioned by the media that will provide the Leopards include Poland, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Portugal. There are reports that up to twelve countries will provide their Leopard tanks. This 55-ton tank has a range of about 500 klics or 310 miles. It can get up to 68 kph or 42 mph. The main weapon is a 120-mm smooth bore gun with a fully-digital fire-control system. The inventory of Leopard 2 tanks of the European and NATO countries amount to around 2,400 tanks.

A Variety of Tanks. There are other tanks in the pipeline as well for Ukraine. The British are sending 14 Challenger 2 tanks projected to arrive in March 2023. A few other European countries have sent or plan to send Soviet-era T-72s. France may be sending their main battle tank as well.

Tank and Artillery Type of War. The Ukraine conflict has seen extensive use of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery. The war has been the scene of the most use of tanks in battle in Europe since World War II. Up to now, both sides of the conflict have been using Soviet-era tanks. The countries of Poland and the Czech Republic have already donated hundreds of Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine has captured a substanitial number of Russian tanks on the battlefield.

Tank Training. The estimates vary on how long it would take to train the tank crews and maintenance personnel. Some reports say six weeks is the minimum for basic proficiency while others indicate it could take 3-4 months. Training for the tank crews and maintenance personnel for both the Abrams and Leopard could begin in weeks. It will likely take about two or three months for the Leopards to be fully operational in Ukraine; perhaps, a lot longer for the Abrams. Training is only one aspect of fielding the tanks in Ukraine; there are a host of issues with logistics and maintenance.

Additional Armored Vehicles for Ukraine. In mid-January, the United States announced a $2.5 billion assistance package that featured Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers. Germany is providing Marder infantry fighting vehicles, France AMX-10 light tanks, and Sweden is donating CV90 infantry fighting vehicles.

Turning Point? These tanks, if fielded in sufficient numbers with proper training, maintenance, and logistical support, could very well provide a big advantage to the Ukrainian forces. This advantage will factor into defending against Russian offensive operations or Ukrainian efforts to recover territory now occupied by the Russian forces. The current pledges for tanks by the NATO allies falls short of the Ukrainian request for 300 main battle tanks. But it is a start.

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References:

M1 Abrams – Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams

Abrams Tank
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons/abrams-tank.html

Leopard 2 – Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2

German Leopard Tank
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons/leopard-tank.html

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Top Photo: An armored tank from 1st Battalion, 18th Infantry Regiment, 1st Infantry Division, heads into a simulated combat zone with concealment smoke billowing behind it during a combined arms breach exercise conducted at Fort Leonard Wood, Mo., Jan. 29. The tanks are from the Fort Riley, Kansas-based 1st Inf. Div., and provided ground support for the 4th MEB’s 5th Eng. Bn.-led training. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Mark Patton)

Ukraine – Russia Conflict Update – December 2022

SOF News — Fri, 23 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0000

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Ground Conflict

Fighting continues to take place in Ukraine along the forward line of troops. The combat is particularly intense in the Donbas region. In the Kharkiv (NE) and Kherson (south) regions, the Ukrainians are consolidating their previous gains in territory while the Russians are bolstering their defensive positions. Some Russian units that fought in Kherson have been repositioned to assist in the offensive to take Bakhmut. Russian ammunition is reported to be rapidly dwindling with some severe shortages in early 2023. (Washington Examiner, Dec 12, 2022)

Bakhmut. The Russians have been attempting to take the city of Bakhmut (Google maps) in a ground offensive for over five months. Russian has attained minimal gains while suffering a significant amount of casualties in the heavy fighting. The months-long fight for Bakhmut has reduced much of the city to rubble due to Russian artillery barrages. The continuing battle during the upcoming winter months may come down to logistics and the availability of personnel reinforcements. Read more in “Ukraine War: Why Bakhmut Became Hell on Earth”, 1945, December 12, 2022.

Winter has arrived in Ukraine. Are Russian troops on the front lines prepared for the cold Ukrainian weather? Maybe not. “Russian Soldiers Are Freezing to Death in Eastern Ukraine”, by David Axe, Forbes, November 27, 2022.

Fight for the Skies

The Russians continue to employ missile and drone strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. A frequent target is the energy grid – knocking out power to millions of Ukrainians as they confront the cold winter season. The air war over Ukraine is still undecided. Both sides are operating their aircraft from afar by deploying long-range weapons from aircraft a high altitudes or they fly extremely low for short periods of time. (Sandboxx, Dec 12, 2022).

Kh-55 Subsonic Cruise Missiles. The Russians have been using a cruise missile designed in the 1970s. The missile was designed to carry a nuclear warhead. Ukraine intelligence officials pulled one out of the rubble after a recent strike in October. The warhead had been removed and ballast added. The missiles, built in an Ukrainian factory decades ago, had been returned to Russia in the 1990s under an agreement aimed at assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Some of the retrofitted old cruise missiles have explosive warheads; but are being sent by Russia as decoys – getting the Ukrainian air defenses to spend valuable time and resources on missiles with no payload. “Russia is Using Old Ukrainian Missiles Against Ukraine, General Says”, The New York Times, December 12, 2022. (subscription)

Ukrainian Drone Strikes On Russian Airfields . . . in Russia. Apparently the Ukrainians have been hitting aircraft based on airfields hundreds of kilometers inside Russia. The Ukrainians are using old and new drones that have a range of about 1,000 kilometers. “The Mysterious Weapons Behind Ukraine Strikes on Russian Airbases”, Euromaiden Press, December 7, 2022. See also “Three things Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian strategic airbases change in the war”, Euromaiden Press, December 6, 2022.

Maritime Activities

The Russian Black Sea Fleet continues its operations in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. It has been launching missile strikes from surface ships and submarines against coastal targets as well as against Ukrainian cities deep in the interior of the country. It also is standing by with Naval Infantry ready to conduct amphibious landings. Russian ships have maintained control of the Black Sea along Ukraine’s coast. Limited shipments of grain have been allowed from Ukrainian ports under the “Grain Initiative”.

Maps

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces.

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

General Information

Zelenskiy Addresses U.S. Congress. The President of Ukraine gave a speech before the U.S. Congress on December 21, 2022. He thanked the U.S. for its support of the Ukraine and says more assistance is needed. “Zenenskiy’s U.S. visit leaves unanswered questions”, Reuters, December 22, 2022.

Negotiations. There are no apparent signs that either side in the conflict is interested in negotiating and end to the conflict. President Biden has stated that he is willing to discuss the war in Ukraine with President Putin, but with certain pre-arranged conditions for the talks.

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DUI). The history, structure, responsibilities, training, and equipment of the intelligence arm of Ukraine is detailed in this article. “Defence Intelligence of Ukraine: Rulers of the Stars”, Grey Dynamics, November 11, 2022.

U.S. Biological Warfare in Ukraine – Allegations. Robert Lawless examines the accusations of Russia claiming that the U.S. and Ukraine were collaborating to develop biological weapons. (Lieber Institute West Point, Dec 2, 2022).

Humanitarian Issues and Refugees

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. View the UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily), https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine. See also a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report entitled Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis in Ukraine, dated November 23, 2022, PDF, 4 pages.

Ukrainian Refugees and U.S. Benefits. A Congressional Research Service (CRS) report entitled Ukrainian Eligibility for Selected Benefits Based on Immigration Status provides details on the eligibility for select public benefits. The different immigration status categories are refugees, asylees, parolees, and temporary protected status. Some of the benefits include Medicaid, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Social Income (SSI), Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) Refugee Benefits, and Department of State (DOS) Refugee Benefits. Read the CRS report, November 29, 2022, PDF, 7 pages.

World Response

U.S. Cyber Command and Ukraine. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine the U.S. Cyber Command had deployed military personnel to Ukraine to strengthen its cyber defenses. “Partnering With Ukraine on Cybersecurity Paid Off, Leaders Say”, DoD News, December 3, 2022.

HIMARS Contract. The U.S. Army will be getting more of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems used so successfully by the Ukrainian military against the Russians. The new contract will allow the U.S. to more rapidly replenish DoD stocks and support Ukraine. “Army awards $431 million contract for HIMARS”, U.S. Army, December 2, 2022.

Slovakia’s MiGs. The country of Slovakia is ready to send its MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. The country is in talks with other NATO countries on the way to accomplish the transfer. (The Kyiv Independent, Dec 12, 2022).

More U.S. Aid. On December 9, 2022 the Department of Defense announced another authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance for Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This is the 27th drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. The equipment to be sent to Ukraine include more HIMARS ammunition, 80,000 155mm artillery rounds, Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems equipment, counter air defense capability, HMMWVs ambulances, medical equipment, 150 generators, and some field equipment. “$275 Million in Additional Assistance for Ukraine”, DoD News, December 9, 2022. A fact sheet published by the Department of Defense summarizes the various items of equipment that has provided to Ukraine since February 2021 – totaling over $20 billion. “Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine”, DoD, December 9, 2022. On December, 2022, the U.S. Congress approved a $45 billion aid package for Ukraine as part of the FY2023 Omnibus Appropriations package.

Russia Receives Arms from North Korea. According to the White House a Russian mercenary group has been receiving military equipment from North Korea. “White House: Russia’s Wagner received arms from North Korea”, AP News, December 23, 2022.

Patriot Training for Ukraine. The U.S. may soon be providing training on the Patriot air defense artillery system to the Ukrainians. The training could take place in the United States. The Biden administration has stated that it will be providing one Patriot battery to Ukraine. It is a sophisticated air defense system designed to shoot down incoming missiles and aircraft. The training on the complex system would last several months; for approximately 90 personnel – likely at Fort Sill, Oklahoma. Many critics say that a single Patriot battery will not change the course of the war. “Military weighs training Ukrainians on Patriot in United States”, Politico, December 22, 2022.

Commentary

Holodomor Recognized. A sad chapter in the history of Ukraine took place during the Holodomor – “death by hunger”. Joseph Stalin imposed harsh and repressive policies on Ukraine, including creating a deliberate famine in 1932-1933 that caused millions of Ukrainian men, women, and children to die of starvation. “Statement by President Joe Biden on Remembering the Holodomor”, The White House, November 23, 2022.

Crimea – in Ukrainian Hands by mid-2023? Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges is a former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe. He believes that the Ukrainian military is setting the conditions for the decisive phase of the war – the liberation of Crimea to take place by August 2023. “Retired Lt. General Predicts When Russia Will Lose Crimea”, Newsweek, December 12, 2022.

Podcast – A Firsthand Account of the Battle of Mariupol. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 one of its first targets was the city of Mariupol located in the southeastern part of the country along the coast of the Sea of Azov. Outnumbered Ukrainian defenders held out for 80 days before the city fell; but not before they provided the Ukrainian military time to hold the Russians off elsewhere. One of the Mariupol fighters was Aiden Aslin, a British citizen who was captured by Russian forces in April 2022 while fighting as a Ukrainian Marine in Mariupol. He was held prisoner for five months until his release in late September 2022. Hosted by John Spencer, Aslin describes his path to Ukraine, the Battle of Mariupol, and his captivity. Urban Warfare Project Podcast, Modern War Institute at West Point, November 25, 2022, one hour. https://mwi.usma.edu/a-firsthand-account-of-the-battle-of-mariupol/

Reports and Publications

CRS Report on U.S. Policy. A recent brief by the Congressional Research Service has been provided to Congress that describes the sanctions on Russia, assistance provided to Ukraine, U.S. and NATO force structure in Europe, and potential policy issues for the United States Congress. Russia’s War on Ukraine: U.S. Policy and the Role of Congress, CRS IF 12277, December 9, 2022, PDF, 3 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12277

CRS Report on Invasion of Ukraine. A four page brief has been updated by the Congressional Research Service that outlines the key European Union responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S.-EU cooperation, and U.S. congressional interests. Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine: European Union Responses and U.S.-EU Relations”, CRS, December 8, 2022, PDF, 4 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11897

SFOPS Supplemental Funding for Ukraine. A Congressional Research Service report outlines the requested and appropriated funding for the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs (SFOPS) accounts. This funding, more than $30 billion, is supporting a range of activities, including direct financial support for the Government of Ukraine, humanitarian assistance, security assistance, and civilian agency operations. Read the report here, November 21, 2022, PDF, 11 pages.

Resources about the Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine – Russia Conflict Update – Nov 2022

SOF News — Wed, 30 Nov 2022 06:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO. This report is currently posted every 30 days, providing curated news for the month.

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Big Picture of the Conflict

Russians Lose More Territory. Russia is continuing to suffer defeats on the ground in Ukraine. The recent retreat of over 30,000 Russian troops from the regional capital of Kherson in mid-November is its’ third major retreat since the Ukraine war began. The first was from the Kyiv region and the second from the Kharkiv region. The Russians retreated from Kherson to the east bank of the Dnieper River – a much more defensible position for the coming winter months. About 70% of the Kherson region remains under Russian control. The Russian withdrawal from the city follows a months-long offensive by Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine.

Winter Campaign. The onset of winter in Ukraine will likely slow down the pace of battlefield operations. Both countries will use the rest from fierce fighting to fortify positions, train up reinforcements, and set the environment for further offensive action. Snow and mud will degrade the fighting ability of the individual soldier, impede some vehicle traffic, and slow the pace of logistical resupply operations.

Winter is on Its Way in Ukraine. Are Russian troops on the front lines prepared for the cold Ukrainian weather? Maybe not. “Russian Soldiers Are Freezing to Death in Eastern Ukraine”, by David Axe, Forbes, November 27, 2022.

Fight in the Skies

Missile Strikes on Civilian Infrastructure. Russian missile attacks continued to strike Ukrainian civilian infrastructure throughout the month of November. This included strikes on water supply facilities, electric power systems, and more. Scheduled and emergency blackouts have become routine over many parts of Ukraine. Western officials had predicted over the past few months that the Russian ability to launch massive missile strikes had diminished as the stockpiles had been used up in the previous months. However, the huge number of missile attacks over the past month have discounted that theory. On Tuesday (Nov 15th) over 96 missiles hit various targets in Ukraine. Its electrical infrastructure has suffered immense damage leaving millions without power – with some estimates saying that half of the energy system was out of order for an extended period of time. The United States and other nations are stepping up to provide millions of dollars to support the acquisition of critical electricity grid equipment.

“Russian Missile Strikes Plunge Ukraine into Darkness”, by Nolan Peterson, Coffee or Die Magazine, November 23, 2022.
“How Was Russia Able to Launch Its Biggest Aerial Attack on Ukraine?”, The New York Times, November 18, 2022. (subscription).
“U.S., Allies Work to Supply Ukraine Air Defense Needs”, DoD News, November 29, 2022.

Iran Helps Russia with Drones. An agreement between Russia and Iran will result in Iran transferring designs and key components for armed drones for use by Russia in the Ukraine war. (The Kyiv Independent, Nov 19, 2022).

Air Defense and NASAMS. The United States has provided Ukraine with National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems. Two have been delivered and six more are on order. While Russia’s manned aircraft are having a difficult time in Ukraine’s airspace, the Russian drones and cruise missiles are having more success. The NASAMS should be helpful in countering the drones and cruise missiles.

“NASAMS Arrive in Ukraine in US Bid to Bolster Air Defense”, Air and Space Forces, November 7, 2022.
“As Russia Ups Air Attacks, US-built NASAMS Air Defense Missiles Arrive in Ukraine”, Coffee or Die Magazine, November 7, 2022.

Maritime Activities

Black Sea Fleet. The loss of captured territory in Ukraine is a devastating blow to the Russian military; yet, it is not without strategic options. Utilizing its Black Sea Fleet, it can still launch missile attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure – crippling its economy. And it can continue to blockade Ukraine’s ports – hurting its ability to export grain and industrial goods. Russia retains the capability to conduct an amphibious landing using several ships positioned in the Black Sea – putting a substantial element of Russian naval infantry on land to threaten vital Ukrainian targets. Read more in “Relative Dominance: Russian Naval Power in the Black Sea”, War on the Rocks, November 9, 2022.

Ukraine’s Drone Boats. One way of countering Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is the employment of unmanned tactical surface vessels. They have the capability of striking targets as far away as 500 miles. The Ukraine government is hoping to ‘crowdsource’ the funding of 100 of these drone boats. They are about 18 feet long, travel about 50 mph, and can carry a payload of up to 400 pounds. Read more in “Ukraine’s Shadowy Kamikaze Drone Boats Officially Break Cover”, The WarZone, November 11, 2022.

Ukraine to Get Riverine Patrol Boats. The United States has announced it is sending 40 armored riverine boats to Ukraine as part of a $400 million assistance package announced in November. 18 riverine boats were sent in June 2022. “Pentagon Adds 40 Armored Patrol Boats to Latest Ukraine Military Aid Package”, USNI.org, November 7, 2022.

Ukraine SOF – Walking on a River Bottom. A different type of story is told in this article about Ukrainian and International Legion divers who crossed the Dnieper River to liberate a Kherson Oblast village. The divers came from the International Legion and the Ukrainian 73rd Marine Special Operations Center. Euromaiden Press, November 19, 2022.

Tactical Ground Situation

Russian Advances – Minimal Gains. A lot of effort and Russian lives are being spent to gain very little territory along the front lines in eastern Ukraine. Untrained ad-hoc Russian units are being pressed into service to gain minimal amounts of territory.

Artillery – Older Models Employed by Ukrainians. The 105-millimeter M101 was a standard light howitzer for the United States during World War II. The Ukrainians have acquired more than 50 of these artillery pieces twenty years ago and they are still being used on the frontlines very effectively. “Ukraine’s World War II- vintage Howitzers Still Work Just Fine”, Forbes.com, November 28, 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces.

Interactive Map – Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

General Information

Negotiations. The prospect for a negotiated settlement is slim. Russia in no longer able to negotiate from a position of strength and President Putin is very unlikely to admit defeat. He is willing to expend more Russian lives in attempt to keep the territory his military forces have gained – most importantly, a land corridor from the Russian border, along the west coastline of the Sea of Azov, going to Crimea. The Ukrainians won’t stop fighting until most of that territory is regained.

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. View the UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily), https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.

The Cost of the War. The long-running ‘three day special military operation’ is having a tremendous cost for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of the world. For Ukraine especially, its economy has been severely impacted, the standard of living has dropped, and thousands and thousands of Ukrainians have been injured, wounded, or killed. For Russia, the economic cost has been high – although not as much as Ukraine’s. The human cost for Russia – wounded and killed – has been equal, if not more, to the human cost for Ukraine. “The ballooning costs of the Ukraine War”, The Strategist, by David Uren, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), November 24, 2022.

NAFO and Meme Warfare. The information space is a battleground for the Ukraine Russian conflict. There are many aspects to the IO fight; one of the is the use of memes. “The Fellas” (NAFO) is one group that specializes in the use of memes. “Seizing the memes of advantage in the Ukraine war and beyond”, by Callum Harvey, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, November 15, 2022.

World Response and Military Aid

U.S. Military Equipment – Another $400 Million. In mid-November the United States announced it was providing another $400 million in arms, munitions, and equipment. This material will be drawn down from U.S. Department of Defense inventories. This latest supply will bring the total of military aid to over $19 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration. The latest aid package contains missiles for the HAWK air defense system, ammunition for the HIMARS, artillery rounds, mortar rounds, HMMWVs, grenade launchers, and more. “$400 Million in Additional Assistance for Ukraine”, DoD News, November 10, 2022.

Iran – Providing Weapons to Russia. A Congressional Research Service ‘fact sheet’ describes some of the weapons deliveries to Russia made by Iran. The Shahed-131 and 136 drones have ranges of over 900 kilometers and can carry munitions. The Iranians may also be contemplating the transfer of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia as well. “Iran’s Transfer of Weaponry to Russia for Use in Ukraine”, CRS, November 4, 2022, PDF, 4 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12042

SF Veterans Help in Ukraine. Two former Green Berets traveled to Ukraine to teach medical classes to the Ukrainian military. Read about it in “Why a Cumberland County Special Forces veteran went to Ukraine”, The Fayetteville Observer, November 9, 2022.

Canadian Engineers to Poland. More than forty combat engineers from Canada will be supporting Polish efforts to train Ukrainian military forces. The training provided will be on the topics of engineer reconnaissance, explosives, mining, and de-mining. Canadian forces have been assisting in supporting refugee reception centers and helping British-based training programs. “Canada to send 40 combat engineers to Poland to train Ukraine soldiers”, CBC.CA News, October 11, 2022.

Commentary

Surrender? Not Likely. Yurij Holowinsky tells us why the Ukrainians are unlikely to negotiate and even less likely to surrender. “Why Ukraine Won’t Quit”, Small Wars Journal, November 26, 2022.

“Dad, what does it mean to ‘surrender’?” “I don’t know my son. We are Ukrainians!”

Lessons Learned. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine was supposed to last three days and result in the capture of Kyiv, toppling of the Ukraine government, and installation of a ‘puppet’ regime. Instead, Russia finds itself in a long, attritional battle. For national security observers, the conflict has provided updated ‘lessons learned’ about modern conflict. Over twenty lessons learned are described in this article. Among them are 1) Ukrainians can be trusted, 2) Russians cannot be trusted, 3) equipment doesn’t win wars, people do, 4) sanctions work but are messy, 5) influence operations are important, and more. “What the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine“, Atlantic Council, November 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Podcasts, Videos, and Movies

Podcast – American Legionaire. Veteran’s Day sees the ‘G Base’ host an American veteran, Jack Herra, who volunteered to serve in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion and shares his story and unique perspective with listeners. Pinelander Podcast, November 11, 2022, one hour.
https://pinelander.podbean.com/e/episode-049-american-legionaire-november-11-2022/

Podcast – Surviving a Winter War. As Ukraine gears up for a winter conflict with Russia it might look back into history to a time when Finland fended of the larger Soviet Union army for many months during its ‘winter war’. The Finnish soldiers, using snow caves and skis to push back against Stalin’s forces. “What it Takes to Survive a Winter War”, Outside Podcast, November 16, 2022.
https://www.outsideonline.com/podcast/survival-winter-war-russia-finland/