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Russia’s War on Ukraine – April 20, 2022

SOF News — Wed, 20 Apr 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO. Additional topics include refugees, internally displaced personnel, humanitarian efforts, cyber, and information operations.

Photo: Destroyed Russian tanks in the Sumy region, Ukraine. Photo by Irina Rybakova, press service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, March 7, 2022.

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Big Picture of the Conflict

The long anticipated Russian offensive to capture more territory in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine has begun. Initial reports began surfacing on social media on Tuesday (Apr 19) and confirmed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense the same day. The Russians hope to defeat the Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine, capture more territory, and enter into negotiations from a position of strength. The Donbas region is known for its industrial assets, including coal mines, metals plants, and machine-building factories. The offensive is reported to be along a 300 mile front extending from northeastern Ukraine to the country’s southeast.

“Another phase of this operation is beginning and I am sure it will be a very important moment in this entire special operation”.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

Specific Russian Goals. According to a NATO official the four main goals of Russia are: 1) capture the Donbas region, 2) control the ‘land bridge’ from Donbas to Crimea, 3) control Kherson on the Dnieper River ensuring a freshwater supply to Crimea, and to 4) acquire additional territory for use as a buffer zone or for bargaining chips in future negotiations.

Ground Situation

The Russians will likely advance on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region from three sides: the north, east, and south. The best scenario for the Russians is to conduct a pincer movement that would encircle the Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine, cutting off their supply lines from the interior of Ukraine. The Ukrainians will need to launch a series of small spoiling attacks that will prevent Russia from building up forces that would then advance on the Ukrainian positions. The Pentagon reported that 11 more battalion tactical groups (BTGs) arrived in the Donbas region; bringing the total number of BTGs to 78. Of these 78, about twelve BTGs are committed to the defeat of the remaining defenders of Mariupol.

Read more in “How to Win the Battle in Eastern Ukraine”, by Benjamin Jensen, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), April 14, 2022.

Battle of the Skies

Ukrainian Air Assets. According to a Pentagon briefing on Tuesday (Apr 19) the Ukraine air force has increased their available ‘operational’ aircraft due to the provision of ‘additional platforms and parts’ by other NATO countries. The U.S. assisted in part of the transportation of these aircraft parts and components. The Ukraine government has denied that it received ‘aircraft’, saying that it only received aircraft parts.

More Recon Drones. The Ukrainians will be receiving over 100 Quantix Recon Unmanned Aircraft Systems from AeroVironment. These drones and the associated training are being donated to Ukraine by the U.S. manufacturer. (BusinessWire, Apr 19, 2022).

“As the Ukraine military’s fight to protect their homeland and defend their nation’s freedom against Russia’s invasion intensifies, their need for solutions that can offer force protection and force multiplication capabilities continues. This donation will provide operators with a tool that can fly undetected by enemy forces and unaffected by radio frequency jammers to deliver accurate and rapid reconnaissance of remote, inaccessible areas of the dynamically changing battlefield.”
Wahid Nawabi, President and CEO of AeroVironment, Inc.

“Using the actionable intelligence gathered by the Quantix Recon, operators can conduct quick mission planning and verification to help keep Ukrainian ground forces out of harm’s way. AeroVironment is honored to support the people of Ukraine,” Nawabi added.

The Turkish Drone in Ukrainian Skies. The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 is making a name for itself in the Ukraine War. This lightweight low-tech armed drone carries four small laser-guided munitions and can cruise for about 24 hours. It costs about a sixth of the Reaper’s US$32 million price tag. The TB2 is wreaking havoc with Russian tanks, artillery pieces, and short-range air defense systems. The armed drone has also seen great success in the Nagorno-Karabakh War in Azerbaijan and the conflict in Ethiopia. Turkey has about 140 of the TB2s and is conducting research and tests on new drone prototypes. Read more in “Has Turkey become an armed drone superpower?”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, April 19, 2022.

Norwegian MANPADS. The Norwegian Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday (Apr 20) that it is providing 100 Mistral air defense missile systems to Ukraine. It is currently being used by the Norwegian Navy. It is a lightweight man-portable launcher and is operated by a one or two person crew. (Army Recognition, April 20, 2022).

Donbas and Russian Airpower. Compared to its initial operations around Kyiv and in the southwest of Ukraine, Russia likely has a measure of localized air superiority in the Donbas region. Ukraine’s medium- and short-range mobile surface to air missile systems have slowly been taken out. The Ukrainian SA-8s and SA-11s have to be positioned close to friendly lines to be effective and cover friendly troops; and they have been reduced by ground attacks and by drones as well. The Russians appear to lack sufficient stocks of precision-guided munitions for battlefield use. This means the Russian pilots will need to employ tactics requiring them to acquire targets visually and then to fly in a stable approach in a dive. This is a tactic that will expose them to the numerous MANPADS that the Ukrainian ground forces are employing.

The lack of ‘targeting pods’ (like the U.S. Sniper pod) and the limited training time afforded to Russian pilots will also detract from the Russian air force’s effectiveness. While the Russians will enjoy localized air superiority, it is unlikely to produce decisive results on the battlefield for Russia. Justin Bronk explains this in detail in “Russia Likely Has Local Air Superiority in Donbas, but it May Not Matter”, RUSI, April 19, 2022.

Maritime Activities

The United States is sending unmanned surface vessels (USVs) to Ukraine to beef up its coastal defense capabilities. The USVs are capable of a variety of missions. These include extending Ukraine’s surveillance out further away from the coastline, sweeping for mines in the waters, and possibly to directly attack Russian ships. Read more in “Mysterious American robotic ships headed to Ukraine”, FEDSCOOP, April 15, 2022. The topic of maritime neutrality in the Black Sea is explored by David Letts in “Maritime Neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict”, Articles of War, West Point, April 18, 2022.

Tactical Situation

Mariupol. The siege of the encircled coastal city of Mariupol continues with a small force of Ukrainians fighting from a defensive pocket. Most of the Ukrainian defense is centered above and below ground at the Mariupol Azovstal Iron and Steel Works. The plant occupies four square miles of the city’s waterfront. It was one of the largest metallurgical factories in Europe. The plant and its network of underground tunnels is serving as a shelter and base for fighters of the Azov Battalion, 36th Marines, and members from other Ukrainian ground units. The city had a pre-war population of 450,000; it is estimated that about 100,000 civilians remain in the city. “How a Mariupol steel plant became a holdout for the city’s resistance”, The Washington Post, April 19, 2022. See also “Surrounded Mariupol Commander Begs for International Help to Evacuate”, Daily Beast, April 19, 2022.

The Battle for Kyiv. How the Russian forces were beaten into retreat from the capital city is detailed by Oz Katerji. Moscow’s plan was to encircle and capture Ukraine’s capital within a matter of days. What would follow would be the apprehension, detention, and probable killing of Ukrainian politicians, journalists, human rights activist, government officials, and senior military officers. The author of this article, who was in Kyiv on the eve of the invasion, describes how Ukraine’s smaller army could inflict the humiliating blow against the Russian army. Read more in “How Ukraine Won the Battle for Kyiv”, Rolling Stone, April 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces.

General Information

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. View the UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily), https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.

Prisoner Exchange. A fifth prisoner swap has taken place. 76 Ukrainians were released – 60 service members and 16 civilians.

Russia’s Brain Drain. The Ukraine War and its associated sanctions are going to have a massive impact on the high-tech economy of Russia for years to come. The Russian Ministry of Defense has been heavily involved in research in the artificial intelligence field. This effort may come to a screeching halt due to lack of funds and human talent. “Russia’s Artificial Intelligence Boom May Not Survive the War”, Defense One, April 15, 2022.

The Importance of Morale. Daniel Karr and Jacob Ware collaborate in an article to highlight the role that morale plays in conflicts – whether it is a conventional fight or any insurgency. “Hearts Not Minds: Morale and Inspiration in Insurgency and Territorial Defense”, Modern War Institute at West Point, April 14, 2022.

“Understanding the history of morale’s role in insurgencies is essential for analyzing the ongoing war in Ukraine and developing sound policy options for what could be a drawn-out conflict. But one thing seems clear: Russia will struggle to win its war in Ukraine if its troops do not want to be there.”

Artillery – A Big Ukraine Requirement. With the shift of operations to warfare in open spaces – as opposed to defending cities – the Ukrainian military will find itself outclassed on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. The NATO members states can fix this – if they provide Ukraine with the artillery and anti-air systems to correct this capability deficiency. Michael Jacobson, a Department of the Army civilian field artillery capability analyst and LTC in the U.S. Army Reserves, provides a detailed explanation in “What Artillery and Air Defense Does Ukraine Need Now?”, War on the Rocks, April 15, 2022. See also “Ukraine’s Ability to Withstand Russian Artillery Critical to Fight for Donbas”, The War Zone, April 19, 2022. And this as well . . . “Biden promises more artillery to Ukraine to fight off Russian invaders”, The Washington Times, April 19, 2022.

And More on Artillery. The Pentagon confirmed that it is sending 18 x 155 artillery pieces and 40,000 artillery rounds to Ukraine. In addition, a ‘training package’ will be conducted for Ukrainian military personnel in an adjacent country. This is a ‘train the trainer’ scenario. The training is expected to take place within ‘days’. The Pentagon believes that the training will be minimal as most artillery pieces are ‘the same’; the Ukrainians are familiar with the Soviet bloc 122-mm D-30 Howitzer. Read more in “Biden vows to send Ukraine more artillery as Congress pushes for military aid czar”, Defense News, April 19, 2022.

Canadian Troops to Poland. Ukrainian refugees may find themselves being provided assistance from humanitarian assistance efforts by Canada’s military. The Canadian unit is set to depart from the Canadian Forces Base Trenton in Ontario. Prior to February 24th (the day Russia invaded Ukraine) Canada had 260 military trainers in Ukraine. They were moved prior to the invasion to Poland and assisted for a few weeks with humanitarian assistance before being redeployed back to Canada. “Canadian troops heading to Poland to help Ukrainian refugees”, CP24, April 14, 2022.

Germany – Letting Others do the Heavy Lifting? A new chart that depicts government support to Ukraine by donor GNP shows that Germany is slacking off when compared to other nations. Germany ranks tenth among European nations in amount of aid provided. One would think, given its relative size and wealth, that it would contribute more. (Ukraine Support Tracker, March 27, 2022).

Militias in the Russia-Ukraine War. By now most observers of the Ukraine War have become familiar with the Wagner Group and the Azov Battalion (or brigade). Less well known are other groups on both sides of the conflict – such as the Dnipro Battalion, and Chechen Kadyrov militia. Read more in “Ukraine war: the key role played by volunteer militias on both sides of the conflict”, The Conversation, April 13, 2022.

NG to Eastern Europe? There are roughly about 2,000 National Guard troops currently in Europe. Many more may be headed that way. “National Guard discussing possible deployments to Eastern Europe”, Military Times, April 19, 2022.

Commentary

Three Future Scenarios for Ukraine. The next phase of the war may see some success for Russia. The country’s leaders are learning from their mistakes of the first six weeks of the conflict and making adaptations. Attritional warfare may favor the Russians – with their population base and numbers of artillery pieces and ballistic missiles. Frank Hoffman, a retired Marine infantry officer and defense analyst, envisions three possible scenarios for the future of the conflict in “What Comes Next in Ukraine: Three Scenarios”, Modern War Institute at West Point, April 14, 2022.

(1) The Ukrainians could embark on a general counter-offensive that would likely cost much in personnel and equipment and ultimately fail to achieve any strategic goals.

(2) The Russians could go on the offensive – striking from the north and south – with the aim to capture east Ukraine to include the city of Dnipro and encircling Ukrainian forces in the east. In addition, they would attempt to take Odessa, thus depriving Ukraine of a coastline and seaports.

(3) The conflict could settle into a war of attrition, resulting in a stalemate or ‘frozen conflict’ with Russia keeping the limited gains it has achieved along the coast of the Sea of Azov, areas north of Crimea, and in the Donbas region.

Report – Russia’s Nuclear Weapons: Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization. Congressional Research Service (CRS), April 18, 2022. (updated).
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45861

Russia’s Failure. The few decades have seen Russia announcing to the world the many areas where they have reformed and modernized their military forces. However, all that ‘modernization and reform’ hasn’t shown up on the battlefield. Alexander Crowther spells out the many deficiencies of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine. “Russia’s Military: Failure on an Awesome Scale”, Europe’s Edge, April 15, 2022.

Is the Tank’s Time Coming to An End? Probably Not. The successful employment of anti-armor weapons by the Ukrainians have blunted the usefulness of armor in the Ukraine War thus far. This has caused a reexamination of tank warfare and predictions of a big change in future warfare. David Johnson, a retired Army colonel, examines the history of the tank and the many predictions of the end of the tanks supremacy on the battlefield. “The Tank is Dead: Long Live the Javelin, the Switchblade, the . . .?”, War on the Rocks, April 18, 2022.

Russian Defense Industry. The war in Ukraine has damaged the reputation of Russian weapons manufacturers. It weapons have not performed up to standard. The Russian tanks have not performed well and neither have its aircraft or air defense systems. In the past, Russia has had good success in exporting its weapons systems. But now countries will find that the availability of Russian weapons for export will significantly decrease, the ‘moral stain of working with Moscow’ will push countries to other suppliers, and the performance of Russian weapons is now questionable. “The Russian Defense Industry: A Distressed Brand”, by Dr. Can Kasapoglu, Hudson Institute, April 15, 2022.

Justice in Ukraine? Maybe Not. Most wars end in a negotiated conclusion. The current Ukraine-Russia war is likely to have the same result. Most analysts see talks to end the war centered on strategic, political, and territorial issues. Russia is committing terrible war crimes and there is a worldwide call for accountability. The truth of the matter is most Russians from Putin down to the lowest-trigger puller will escape punishment. Hugh Smith, a retired professor of law and war ethics, explains why in “Justice may have to be sacrificed to end the war in Ukraine”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), April 20, 2022.

Panel Transcript – The Struggles of the Russian Military in Ukraine. Gen (Ret.) Philip Breedlove, Mark Galeotti, Beth Sanner, and Janine Davidson discuss the state of Russia’s military and the effect on the war in Ukraine. Council on Foreign Relations, April 14, 2022.
https://www.cfr.org/event/struggles-russian-military-ukraine

Upcoming Events and Videos

Online Panel Discussion – Russia’s War in Ukraine: Nukes, Negotiations, and Neutrality. As Russia’s offensive recalibrates towards eastern Ukraine, the stakes are continuing to grow between Russia and Ukraine . . . and the West. Register to listen to a panel discussion on the latest political developments in the Russia-Ukraine War and how these may impact future negotiations between the two parties. Brought to you by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). Event takes place on Tuesday, April 26, 2022 from 10:00 am to 11:00 am. Register here.

Online Event – The Crisis in Ukraine: Democracy and Allyship Tested. This event is provided by the Harvard Alumni Association and is scheduled for Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 12:00 pm on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASeKZMbUPe0

Music Video – Kyiv Calling. Kyiv Calling – for a Free Ukraine. A cover version of The Clash’s London Calling to draw the world’s attention to the struggle of the Ukrainian people and raise money for the Free Ukraine Resistance movement.
https://youtu.be/xWQUkRKqp2E?t=5

Video – Does the Russian Air Force Stink? Alex Hollings, the host of Airpower on the Sandboxx News YouTube channel tells us why the Russian Air Force hasn’t been able to establish air superiority over Ukraine. The Team House, YouTube, April 14, 2022, 15 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTf-t5leXbg

SOF News welcomes the submission of articles for publication. If it is related to special operations, current conflicts, national security, defense, or the current conflict in Ukraine then we are interested.

Maps and Other Resources

UNCN. The Ukraine NGO Coordination Network is an organization that ties together U.S.-based 501c3 organizations and non-profit humanitarian organizations that are working to evacuate and support those in need affected by the Ukraine crisis. https://uncn.one

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

War in Ukraine – April 11, 2022

SOF News — Mon, 11 Apr 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Photo: Patriot Missile System. The United States is deploying a Patriot missile system from Germany to Slovakia. The Slovakians are providing the Ukrainians with a S-300 anti-aircraft system. The Patriot will backfill the S-300. NATO photo, March 2022.

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Big Picture of the Conflict

Ground Situation. The nature of the fight ahead will likely change. The Ukrainians will no longer be limited to defending cities but will find themselves confronting an enemy in open terrain that allows for the movement of armor. There are less forested areas from which the Ukrainians can mount small ambushes behind enemy lines. The Russians have an overwhelming superiority in tank and armored vehicle numbers. Read more in “Battles may be tougher for Ukrainians as war shifts to wide-open terrain in east”, The Washington Post, April 9, 2022.

Izyum – The Next Objective? Some analysts say that the eastern city of Izyum in the Kharkiv Oblast may likely be the next target. A very large column of Russian armor has been spotted on the move in the Kharkiv Oblast and may be headed in that direction.

New Russian Commander. The Russians invaded Ukraine from several different avenues of approach – each under a separate command of different military districts. This resulted in a disjointed plan and executed campaign. The Russians have now appointed a single unified commander for the Ukraine War. This will simplify the Russian command structure. The revised campaign plan for the Russians will be to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after the seizure of Mariupol. The new commander, General Alexander Dvornikov, is a veteran of the Syrian conflict as well as a significant amount of time in Donbas over the past several years. He was most recently commanding Russia’s southern military district. Read more in “What to know about Russia’s new top commander in Ukraine”, The Washington Post, April 10, 2022.

Russian Reinforcements. There are reports that Russia will be mobilizing 60,000 reservists to join the war in Ukraine. In addition, the annual spring conscription period began, which will bring in over 120,000 new conscripts for a one year long term of service. These conscripts will need to undergo a training period before being assigned to combat units in Ukraine. The British Ministry of Defense reported on Sunday (Apr 10) that Russia is recruiting people from the Russian-occupied Transnistria (Moldova) and to bring in personnel discharged from Russian military forces since 2012.

Missile Strike on Kramatorsk Train Station. The casualty figures for the short-range ballistic missile (SS-21) that struck a city in the Donbas region have risen – at least 52 are now known dead including several children. The people killed were waiting on an evacuation train to take them to western Ukraine and on to safety. Kramatorsk is the capital of Donetsk Oblast. The incident has sparked protests around the world against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Officials say that evacuation by trains from the conflict areas to western Ukraine will continue; along with bus evacuations. There have been over 1,500 missile launches since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Maritime Activities. Merchant mariners and their ships are stranded in the Black Sea region. This has halted the import and export of vital commodities for Ukraine. Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have been blockaded by Russia and Ukrainian mines have made travel through the northern Black Sea area dangerous. There are about 1,000 mariners from crews on 86 small and large vessels that need to be evacuated. “Extended Russian Ukraine Invasion has Stranded Merchant Mariners, Crippled Wheat Production”, USNI News, April 7, 2022.

Tactical Situation

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine was considered the primary objective of the Russians. The capture of Kyiv would have allowed Russia to put in place its puppet government. It now appears that almost all of the Russian units in the Kyiv region have moved north into Belarus. One of these units, the 331st Guards Parachute Regiment, met their match when they tried to advance on Kyiv. “The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine”, BBC News, April 2, 2022.

Donbas Region. The next month will be potentially decisive for both Ukraine and Russia. The Russians certainly suffered a defeat in the failure to capture Kyiv. They were surprised by the valiant effort of the Ukrainians and not prepared for a months-long engagement. Now, however, they are limiting their goals to the Donbas region and the ‘land bridge’ between Russia and Crimea along the Sea of Azov. Instead of supporting several axes of advance, there will just be a few. This means better cross-coordination, less logistical problems, shorter supply routes, and the ability to concentrate forces. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), provides an analysis of the next phase of the Ukraine conflict. “Why the battle for Donbas will be very different from the assault on Kyiv”, The Guardian, April 9, 2022.

Kharkiv. The western and southern corridors to the city are open and controlled by Ukrainian forces. The Russians continue to probe the Ukrainian defenses to the north of the city. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, is located in the northeast of the country and has been under attack since the start of the invasion.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol has been under siege by the Russians for weeks. The Russians have slowly been gaining ground. News reports say that the defenders are now split between two sections of the city.

Mykolayiv and Odessa. A city near the Black Sea, Mykolayiv, is still experiencing shelling by the Russians. This city of 500,000 has been on the front lines since the start of the war. It is the roadblock between the Russians and the city of Odessa – the seaside port that many believed to be an initial primary objective of the Russians. “Mykolaiv region on edge amid fear of new Russian offensive”, The Washington Post, April 9, 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War (April 10). View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces. Some very good reference maps are available for those ‘handlers’ assisting in the evacuation of people from the conflict areas – provided by Map Action.

UK Prime Minister Visits Ukraine. Boris Johnson paid a surprise visit to Ukrainian President Voloddymyr Zelensky in Kyiv in a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian people. He announced that more weapons were on the way to Ukraine, condemned Russia’s ‘despicable’ attacks on civilians, congratulated Ukraine on its successful defense of Kyiv, and called for a complete embargo of Russian energy resources. Johnson pledged 120 more armored vehicles and new anti-ship missiles. After an office meeting, the two walked through central Kyiv.

“I made clear today that the United Kingdom stands unwaveringly with them in this ongoing fight, and we are in it for the long run. We are stepping up our own military and economic support and convening a global alliance to bring this tragedy to an end, and ensure Ukraine survives and thrives as a free and sovereign nation.”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Kyiv, Saturday, April 9, 2022.

UK APCs and More to Ukraine. A number of armored vehicles will be sent to Ukraine, with training on the vehicles to be conducted in an adjacent country. The APC carries eight troops, plus a crew of two. It carries machine guns and can be outfitted with a 40mm automatic grenade launcher. “Britain sending Mastiff armoured vehicles to Ukraine”, UK Defence Journal, April 8, 2022. There are also reports that Britain may be sending coastal defense cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. Over 4,500,000 Ukrainians have left the country. Most have gone to Poland (2.6 million). Romania and Hungary have also received many refugees as well. View the UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily), https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.

Wagner Group. A Russian private military corporation (PMC) has been assisting Russia with its national interests around the world. It has been present in Venezuela, Syria, and in African nations. And it is in Ukraine. There are likely more than 1,000 employees of the corporate entity at work in Donbas. “What is the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary entity in Ukraine?”, The Washington Post, April 9, 2022.

Mozart Group. A former U.S. Marine Corps officer has set up a military training center in Ukraine to pass on his and other veteran’s experience to the Ukraine military. Colonel (Ret) Andrew Milburn is a former commander of a Special Operations Task Force (SOTF) in Iraq. His organization is called the Mozart Group. Milburn has already hired on several British Army veterans. “Training Ukraine’s Special Forces”, Forces.net, April 7, 2022. Read more about Milburn in “Book Review – When the Tempest Gathers”, SOF News, February 19, 2021.

POW Exchange. The third round of prisoners of war exchanges took place over the weekend. At least 26 Ukrainians were released – including 12 soldiers and 14 civilians. It is the third exchange since February 24, the day the war began.

Cyber and Information Operations

Ukraine – Winning the Propaganda War? Analysts say Russia is showing unexpected weakness at influencing foreign opinion. Although Russian propaganda is working internally, it is failing in Europe and in other parts of the world. “Why Ukraine is winning the propaganda war”, CBC News, April 6, 2022.

Is Russia Really Losing the IO War? Western media is reflecting the narrative that Ukraine would like to see disseminated. And that leads most all observers to believe that Ukraine is beating Russia in the information operations arena. Not so much. In the areas outside of ‘the west’ there are indications that Russia is getting its message across. That could affect how nations like India posture themselves when taking sides on the Ukraine War. “Russia may be winning the Ukraine information war outside the West”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), April 8, 2022.

‘Wolverines’ in Ukraine? A 1984 movie about the Russians having a difficult time defeating insurgents in a small American town has provided an inspirational message for those fighting the Russians in Ukraine. In Red Dawn, young Americans band together to fight off the invaders – and adopt the name of ‘Wolverines’. One of their tactics was painting ‘Wolverines’ on destroyed Russian vehicles. Read more in “Red Dawn hits Ukraine after destroyed Russian armor gets tagged with ‘Wolverines'”, Task and Purpose, April 8, 2022. See also “Destroyed Armored Vehicle in Ukraine Gets the “Wolverines!” From Red Dawn Treatment”, The War Zone, April 8, 2022.

China – A Russian IO Weapon. The tech giants and governments have crippled the Russian state media reach across its borders, but Chinese outlets are advancing the same Russian talking points around the world. China is helping to shape the narrative about Russia’s ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. “China is Russia’s most powerful weapon for information warfare”, The Washington Post, April 8, 2022.

World Response

Weapons for Ukraine. The West continues to send military equipment of all types to Ukraine. One of the more important weapons systems offered are the anti-armor weapons. The U.S. has been sending the Javelin – and has sent thousands of them from their Army stockpiles. The time is coming where the U.S. will have to increase its production capacity of these weapons. “As Ukraine Pummels Russians With Javelin Missiles, Can Production Keep Pace With Demand?”, The War Zone, April 7, 2022.

Zuzana Howitzers for Ukraine? Slovakia may be sending some self-propelled 155-mm howitzers to Ukraine. The 155mm SpGH Zuzana has a high rate of fire and good accuracy. I has a maximum range of 50 kilometers and can fire any standard NATO 155-mm ammunition.

Informal Logistics Network. Drones, body armor, communications equipment, and more are making their way to Ukraine. Private volunteer groups, Ukrainian and foreign, have developed imaginative methods to acquire and ship needed equipment to the frontlines. “Inside the covert network sending arms and drones to Ukraine forces”, The Washington Post, April 9, 2022.

Russian Spies Expelled. Western nations have sent hundreds of Russians working in embassies and consulates packing. Most of them were using diplomatic cover to conduct intelligence operations. Almost all countries do this but the Russians are using the diplomatic posts for intelligence purposes on a huge scale. The expulsion of the spies is in a direct response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it will likely have no immediate effect on military decision-making or the outcome of the war. Read more in “Spy Games: Russian intelligence personnel expelled from Western embassies”, The Soufan Center IntelBrief, April 11, 2022.

Russia Pushes Finland Closer to NATO. The attack on Ukraine was meant to keep Ukraine out of NATO and to push back the NATO presence on Russia’s borders. It may not work out that way. The NATO presence on Russia’s borders could double if Finland joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The Finns may arrive at a decision this spring on pursuing NATO membership. Finland has fought two wars with the Soviet Union and managed to keep its independence and democracy throughout the Cold War. But its ‘neutral’ stance may soon change. “Finland is hurtling towards NATO membership”, The Economist, April 8, 2022.

Commentary

Has the Era of the Tank Gone By? The war in Ukraine has broke into sharp focus the vulnerability of the tank to infantry with good anti-armor weapons. The Javelin (U.S.), NLAW (UK), and AT4 (Sweden), and other anti-tank weapons used by the Ukrainian forces have wrecked havoc on Russian tank formations. The Ukraine War has underlined the vulnerability of tanks to a range of cheap and effective anti-armor weapons in a modern conventional conflict. “Tanks for the memories?”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), April 8, 2022.

9 Ways Russia Failed. The world’s second most powerful army has bungled almost every move since the first day of the Ukraine invasion. Now the Ukrainians have the momentum and the Russians were forced to make a humiliating retreat from the north of the country. The Russian advances have been stalled or halted in most other parts of Ukraine. A recent news article identifies crucial errors made by the Russians. “Nine ways Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine”, The Washington Post, April 8, 2022.

Failure at Antonov Airport. Russia’s failed attempt to take Kyiv, force President Zelensky from office, and install a puppet government can be traced to the failure to capture the airport northwest of Kyiv. This was to be the hub where the Russians would air land forces that would support an armored push into Kyiv. But Putin’s lightning strike on the airport failed due to a series of misjudgments and strategic errors. The emphasis on armored columns, lack of sufficient air power, and long supply lines hindered the operation. In addition, the Russians severely miscalculated the Ukrainians ability to react quickly to the attack on the airfield. “Russia lost the battle for Kyiv with its hasty assault on a Ukrainian airport”, LA Times, April 10, 2022.

Ukraine: U.S. Got it Wrong Decades Ago. A former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine provides his perspective on what the United States should have done upon the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, the Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Ukraine in 2014, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He says there should be a red line on Russian actions in Ukraine. “1st US ambassador to Ukraine: ‘I think we handled it wrong from the get-go'”, CNN.com, April 10, 2022.

What Lies Ahead for Ukraine? Philip Wasielewski is a former Paramilitary Case Officer who had a 31-year career in the Directorate of Operations of the Central Intelligence Agency. His article tries to discern the larger canvas of the war and the several possible strategic outcomes. “Appraising the War in Ukraine and Likely Outcomes”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 8, 2022.

Covert War Against Russia. Douglas London describes how America can covertly undermine the Kremlin and Putin’s rule. “A Shadow War Against Putin”, Foreign Affairs, April 11, 2022.

How Does It End? George Friedman analyzes that war thus far and then looks into the future. Things are not going well for Russia. He sees a potential ‘defeat’ of Russia and perhaps the end of Putin’s regime. “How the Ukraine War Will Likely End”, Geopolitical Futures, April 5, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Putin’s War – April 8, 2022 Update

SOF News — Fri, 08 Apr 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Photo: Mi-28 Attack Helicopter. The “Havoc” is a Russian all-weather, day-night two seat anti-armor attack helicopter. It carries a single gun in an undernose barbette, plus external loads carried on pylons beneath stub wings. There are over 100 of these Mi-28 helicopters currently in service and some are seeing action in Ukraine. Photo by Artem Katranzhi, 6 August 2021, Creative Commons.

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Big Picture

Russia has withdrawn most of the troops it had committed to the invasion of northern Ukraine to refit and reorganize. Now in Belarus, these units will soon move to the Donbas region to rejoin the fight. Russia has acknowledged the economic impact of the war and the rising troop losses as well.

Fight for the Skies. One of Russia’s most capable aircraft was shot down this past Sunday (Apr 3). A Su-35 was hit by a ground-to-air missile and crashed in the Kharkiv region. The pilot ejected and was captured by Ukrainian forces. The Su-35 entered full service in 2018. The Su-35 has thrust vectoring engines that make it very maneuverable. See “Ukrainians Shoot Down Su-35”, Avweb.com, April 4, 2022.

Mariupol. The Russians are continuing their siege of the city. They are massing additional forces for a renewed offensive to wrest control of Mariupol from Ukrainian defenders. Some news reports indicate that the Russians have captured the center of the city while Ukrainian forces maintain control of the southwest sector of Mariupol.

Kyiv. Embassy representatives from Latvia and Lithuanian have returned to Kyiv to resume operations. Now that the capture of the Ukrainian capital by the Russians is considered remote, many activities are returning to normal.

Evacuees Killed at Train Station. Two Russian rockets hit a busy train station in Ukraine on Friday (Apr 8) killing at least 39 people and wounding another 87. The women, children, and elderly were trying to flee fighting in eastern Ukraine. The incident occurred in the city of Kramatorsk. No Ukrainian troops were killed in the attack. About 4,000 people were at the train station at the time of the attack. “Ukraine says Russia deliberately struck railway station used by evacuees”, Reuters, April 8, 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War. View more Ukraine SITMAPs that provide updates on the disposition of Russian forces.

General Information

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. Almost 5,000 people were evacuated from conflict areas of Ukraine on Thursday (Apr 7). Many came from Mariupol while others were from the Zaporizhzhia region. View the UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily).
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

And The Coming Insurgency? The Ukrainians have a past history of insurgent warfare against the Soviet Union. In post-WWII the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists was supported by the Central Intelligence Agency and was credited with killing 35,000 Soviet soldiers, police, and Communist Party officials. U.S. military doctrine cites a ratio of 50 counterinsurgents for every 1,000 inhabitants. Based on Ukraine’s population, the Russians would need a force as large as 800,000 soldiers and police to fully pacify all of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government is prepared to conduct a resistance movement – you can learn more on their website entitled Center of National Resistance setup by their special operations forces command. James Dobbins, a former assistant secretary of state for Europe, explores this topic in detail. “Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?”, The RAND Blog, April 6, 2022.

Mercenaries in Ukraine. Russia is struggling to increase its manpower to reinforce its forces in Ukraine. Russia sent about 75 percent of its main ground combat forces into Ukraine in February. A good part of that force is spent – supplies diminished, tanks and vehicles damaged or captured, and significant personnel losses. Almost 40,000 Russian troops have been withdrawn from around Kyiv and Chernihiv in northern Ukraine and are now in Belarus or Russia – to be resupplied with equipment, vehicles, and personnel. They will soon be sent into the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. In addition, contract private soldiers are being fed into the battle – Russians and Syrians. Read more in “Russia is recruiting mercenaries and Syrians to Ukraine, Western officials say”, Lobo Institute, April 7, 2022.

The Belarusian Battalion. Hundreds of volunteers from Belarus have joined a unit fighting against the Russians in Ukraine. Another 1,000 are awaiting vetting and training before joining the unit. The unit has already been engaged in fighting in the Kyiv region. “Belarusians, Russians Join Ukraine’s Military, Hoping for Freedom at Home”, The Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2022 (subscription).

Intelligence Provided to Ukraine. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday (Apr 7) that the United States is giving Ukraine officials intelligence on Russian forces in the Donbas region. “US giving intel to Ukraine for operations in Donbas, Defense Secretary says”, CNN.com, April 7, 2022.

Threat of Chemical Weapons? One big question is will Russia escalate the conflict and employ chemical weapons in their attacks against Ukrainian military forces and the civilian population. In a press briefing on Thursday (Apr 7) the head of Europe’s World Health Organization (WHO) said that the organization is considering “all scenarios and making contingencies for different situations,” including chemical weapon use by the Russians. There are concerns that Russia will conduct a ‘false flag’ operation about Ukrainian use of chemical weapons and then employ chemical weapons in response. “WHO preparing for chemical weapons use in Ukraine”, The Hill, April 7, 2022.

World Response

The West and Buying Oil from Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba addressed NATO allies in a speech on Thursday (Apr 7) and said that Ukraine needs more to be done to stop the Russians immediately. He says sanctions have long and mid-term consequences for the Russian economy. However, in the short-term, Ukrainians are dying. He stated that it is wrong for Western nations to continue to buy Russian oil and supporting Russia’s war machine. (BBC World News, Twitter, Apr 7, 2022).

Russia Suspended from Human Rights Council. The United Nations voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council on Thursday (Apr 7). It was accused of “gross and systematic violations of human rights.” This is a rarely used penalty imposed by the UN. Read more in “Russia’s Suspension from the UN Human Rights Council”, DoS Press Statement, April 7, 2022.

More U.S. Weapons to Ukraine. All of the anti-armor and anti-air systems approved in March by President Biden have been delivered to Ukraine. The U.S. has delivered over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 5,000 Javelin anti-armor systems, and over 7,000 other anti-armor systems. Among these items are over 100 of the Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems. Read more in “Fact Sheet: U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine”, DoD Release, April 7, 2022.

More U.S. Sanctions. The U.S. Department of State announced on Thursday (Apr 7) more blocking sanctions against Russia. These additional actions are against a shipbuilding corporation and the world’s largest diamond-mining company. There is a bill (H.R. 7108) before Congress that will suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus that would provide additional authorities for the executive branch to impose greater economic punishments on Russia.

Ukraine and Lend-Lease Act. A bill being considered by the U.S. Congress will temporarily waive certain requirements related to the President’s authority to lend or lease defense articles intended for the Ukrainian government. Read up on S.3522, Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022.

Finland Increases Defense Budget. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted many countries to re-examine their defense posture and increase their expenditures on defense. Finland, a country that has already endured an invasion by Russia in the past, is one of these countries spending more money on weapons and military equipment. Among the many new provisions is the amount of reservists who will be called up for refresher training and exercises – an increase from 19,000 soldiers to 29,000. “Finland beefs up its defense with 2.2 billion Euros”, Vantage Point North, April 7, 2022.

Commentary

A Ukrainian Diary. A daily account of the war at a personal level is provided by an author who lives in a village near Kyiv has been published. It begins on “Day 0”, 24 February 2022, the day Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. “A Ukraine diary: When the war came to me”, The New Humanitarian, April 6, 2022.

How Does the War End? The answer comes down to three internal clocks. Ukraine’s clock is counting down in years, it will weather Russia’s punishment over the long-term as long as it has the continued support of the West. Russia’s clock is counting down in months, and is contingent on the continued domestic support for the war and how quickly the Russian military can change its operational and tactical methodology to move from failure to success. NATO (and the U.S.) isn’t ticking at the moment, it has decided not to intervene militarily. “The Ukraine War’s Three Clocks”, THE RAND Blog, April 1, 2022.

And India? One of the vexing problems faced by India is how to straddle the line between expressing condemnation of the Russian attack on Ukraine without jeopardizing its unique position in the Indo-Pacific region. It relies on Russian weapons for its defense forces so it can be prepared for any conflict with China or Pakistan. Yet it needs a ‘partnership’ with the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific regions for the same reason. And then there is the Russian oil that fuels its economy. “Whose side is India on in the Russo-Ukrainian war?”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, April 8, 2022. To offset the loss of Russian support for its acquisition and maintenance of weapons systems, India will ramp up its production of aircraft, tanks, and other military equipment. “India to boost arms output, fearing shortfall from Russia”, Defense News, April 7, 2022.

“Third Rome” Doctrine and Putin. A look back in history may provide some insight into Putin’s motives in the Ukraine. Or does it? “Blaming the “Third Rome” Doctrine for Putin’s Invasion Distorts His Motives”, by Matthew Lenoe, The Washington Post, April 6, 2022 (subscription) or read at History News Network.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine War Update – April 7, 2022

SOF News — Thu, 07 Apr 2022 10:50:48 +0000

Photo: Javelin Close Combat Missile System – Medium (CCMS-M) is a man-portable, medium-range tactical missile system that is used to defeat main battle tanks and other armored vehicles. The Javelin system (US Army Acquisition Support Center) consists of a reusable command launch unit (CLU) and a modular missile encased in a disposable lunch tube assembly. Read more about the U.S. military program to arm Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles. (Connecting Vets, Mar 2, 2022). (Photo courtesy of U.S. Army).

The Javelin (Wikipedia), along with thousands of other anti-tank weapons systems provided by NATO allies, has had a devastating effect on the Ukrainian battlefields against Russian tanks and armored vehicles. There will soon be about ten anti-tank missile systems for every one Russian tank in Ukraine (Secretary Blinken interview). Watch a 2-min long video featuring the Javelin (DVIDS, 2017).

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Military Situation

A Long War? Many international observers of the Ukraine War believe the stage is set for a long-term conflict in Ukraine. Putin’s goal of extending the Russian empire by incorporating all or most of Ukraine into Russia’s borders will not be side-tracked with the temporary set back his army has experienced during the ‘Battle for Kyiv’. During testimony before Congress this week, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, predicted that the conflict will likely last years.

Ground Campaign. Russia has abandoned its planned capture of the capital of Ukraine. Its forces have retreated or been pushed back by Ukrainian forces from the Kyiv area. They have repositioned to the north across the Belarus border to refit, reorganize, and resupply. These units will likely move in a circular, clockwise direction into Russia, and then into the Donbass region to continue to fight.

Video – Armed Resistance in Ukraine. The concept of national resistance is where individual citizens participate in an organized struggle under state leadership to resist an aggressor attacking that nation. Ukraine has taken that concept and put it into action. Stephen J. Flanagan, a Senior Political Scientist, explains in this 2-minute long video. (Rand Corporation, March 30, 2022.

Tactical Situation

Kyiv. The region around Kyiv and most of the northern part of Ukraine has seen the departure of Russian units. Left behind is a path of destruction, burned out Russian tanks and APCs, boobytraps and unexploded ordnance, and dead Ukrainian citizens.

Kharkiv. The city was once again shelled during the night hours of Wednesday into Thursday morning (Apr 6-7). The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, is located in the northeast of the country.

Mariupol. According the the Mariupol City Council, Russia is using its crematoriums to erase evidence of its war crimes. The bodies of residents killed in the conflict are being collected and burned. The fight for the city is still ongoing, with Ukrainian defenders holding out long after most military observers had predicted its capture to the Russians.

Russian-Occupied Kherson. In Kherson the actions of the Russians have been brutal. Numerous protests have occurred in the city of almost 300,000 residents; activities that are usually broken by Russian soldiers firing live rounds, tear gas, and stun grenades. The Russians are hunting down the protesters and detaining them. There are numerous checkpoints, Russian looting of shops, and shortages of food. The Ukrainian army is attempting to mount a counter-offensive that will recapture the port city. “Tear gas, arrogance, and resistance: Life in Russia-occupied Kherson”, The Christian Science Monitor, April 6, 2022.

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. Around 7.1 million people have been displaced internally in Ukraine. More than 4 million have fled the country seeking refuge in Europe. Another 4,000 people were evacuated from Ukrainian cities on Wednesday (Apr 6), many from Mariupol. Ukrainians continue to flow across Ukraine’s western borders into neighboring countries. More than two million are now being hosted by Poland. The New York Times (subscription) reports that at least 2,000 Ukrainians are in Mexico along the United States border awaiting entry; a process that shouldn’t be too difficult as there about 100,000 people a month crossing the southern border.

Europeans have been exceptionally welcoming to the Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion – many opening their homes to the refugees. Resources are appearing on the internet providing housing assistance to Ukrainian refugees. An interactive map by CrisisReady shows the population density changes in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. The maps can be used as a “signal” about population changes related to the Ukrainian invasion.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily).
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Cyber and Information Operations

IO in Russia. The propaganda battle within Russia is being won by Putin. His popularity ratings in Russia has risen over the past few months. This is the result of a steady flow of disinformation from the Russian state controlled-media and the curb on private media organizations.

Informing Russians and Ending the War. Information operations will play a decisive role in the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Information can help the Russian population to realize the true case of the sanctions and the true cost of the war. But more needs to be done to get that message across to the people of Russia. Tod C. Helmus and Andrew Radin explain in “Keeping Russians Informed About Ukraine Could Help End This War”, The RAND Blog, March 14, 2022.

Shortwave Radio and the Narrative. FM and broadcast television can only travel to just beyond the horizon. However, shortwave can travel vast distances. A shortwave signal cannot be hacked, bombed, and is very difficult to jam. The BBC World Service has begun a daily shortwave broadcast directed to Ukraine but that can also be heard in southeastern Russia. Radio Free Europe played a key role in the Cold War providing truthful broadcasts to the Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Perhaps it is time for RFE to return to its roots and follow BBC’s lead in restarting shortwave services to Ukraine and southeastern Russia. “Why the BBC World Service’s New Ukrainian Shortwave Service Matters”, The RAND Blog, March 25, 2022.

General Information

Agricultural Commodity Prices Rise Worldwide. The last 18 months has seen wheat, corn, and vegetable oil prices rise dramatically around the world. The Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes at a time when global food and energy prices are already elevated. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has disrupted Black Sea agricultural exports of fertilizer, grain, and other agricultural products. The prospects for spring planting and winter crop harvesting in Ukraine remain uncertain. Read an international agricultural trade report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service on how the Ukraine conflict is contributing to high commodity prices and food insecurity published on April 6, 2022.

U.S. Foreign Fighters. The U.S. State Department says that it is not a crime under U.S. law for an individual to go abroad for the purpose of enlisting in a foreign army. However, if recruited or hired in America then it could be a violation and result in the relinquishment of U.S. citizenship. In addition, DoS is advising against Americans to travel to Ukraine, noting that Russia intends to treat captured foreign fighters as ‘mercenaries’. Despite these warnings thousands of American citizens, most with military experience, are looking to go to Ukraine to participate in the fight against the Russian invasion. “Regardless of the Warnings: Some U.S. Veterans Look to Join the Fight in Ukraine: ‘This Is What I Do'”, People Magazine, April 4, 2022.

Security Assistance and Ukraine. Overhauling Ukraine’s procurement institutions has facilitated the recent surge of security assistance to Ukraine. A lot has changed from seven years ago when Russia’s military seized Crimea. U.S. security assistance provided from 2014 to 2020 ($2 billion) has certainly made a difference. “The Ukrainian Military Has Defied Expectations. Here is How U.S. Security Aid Contributed”, The RAND Blog, March 29, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine War Update – April 5, 2022

SOF News — Tue, 05 Apr 2022 09:52:23 +0000

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Russian Campaign Update

Russian Withdrawal. The retreat of Russian troops from areas in northern Ukraine (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, etc.) is welcome news for the civilians that live in those areas. It is estimated that roughly 2/3s of the Russian forces in this area have departed and are in Belarus. Many of the Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) will reorganize, resupply, and refit in either Belarus or Russia before being committed to the fight for the Donbas region in the eastern part of Ukraine. Some BTGs are in better shape than others – the reorganization will distribute weapons, equipment, vehicles, and personnel to bring BTGs back up to strength. Some BTGs may be combined to reconstitute fully manned and operational fighting units. Russia invaded Ukraine with more than 125 battalion tactical groups on February 24, and many are still in Ukraine or refitting in Belarus.

Donbas Region. The main objective of Putin’s War is now the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in eastern Ukraine, sometimes called the Donbas region. However, Ukrainian forces continue to defend this territory and any Russian gains are incremental at best. Some Russian forces are advancing south from the outskirts of Kharkiv into this region – there may be an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in the east, cutting them off from their supply lines coming from the interior of Ukraine.

Devastation. As the Russian withdraw the extent of the devastation of much of the occupied area is now being revealed. For instance, the city of Irpin located northwest of Kyiv had a pre-war population of 60,000. Now just 3,500 residents are there and many of the homes and business are destroyed. Throughout the region the Russians are leaving behind mines and boobytraps that pose a danger.

Bucha Massacre. Satellite imagery provided by Mazar Technologies is showing a number of dead bodies in the streets of Bucha since March 11, while Russia occupied the town. The images debunk Russia’s claim that Ukrainian soldiers were responsible for the killings of civilians.

Ukrainian Defense

President Zelensky will address the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday (Apr 5). He is predicting the reporting of more instances of mass killings of civilians by Russians as Ukrainian forces push forward in the formerly Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. The United States plans to ask the United Nations General Assembly to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. A vote may take place this week on the proposal.

Tactical Situation

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine was once considered the primary objective of the Russians. However, the Russians are now denying that they wanted to take the capital. Missile strikes continue to hit Kyiv although most Russian artillery is now out of range of the city. It is unlikely the Russians will make another attempt to capture Kyiv with ground troops.

Kharkiv. The Russians may still attempt to capture Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. Ukrainian defense officials say that the Russians are concentrating their forces in the Donbas region and around Kharkiv. The city is the second largest in Ukraine with a pre-war population of 1.4 million people. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is assisting in the delivery of safe drinking water – to the Kharkiv Vodokanal water system with the provision of liquefied chlorine for water purification.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. There are numerous reports that the city will ‘fall in days’, however, the Ukrainian forces still are in control of parts of the city.

Mykolayiv and Then Odessa. Reports by Ukrainian officials says that the Russians recently used cluster bombs in Mykolayiv, killing a number of civilians. The bombardment of this city is continuing. The Russians consider the capture of this city a key to being able to attack and capture Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. The Russians are hitting some of the Ukrainian fuel depots. One fuel supply point was hit in Odessa over the weekend.

General Information

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. More than 3,000 people were evacuated from the areas around Mariupol, Zaporizhia, and Berdyansk on Monday (Apr 4). Some Ukrainians are having difficulty in accessing food, water, medicine, and other basic necessities. The World Food Programme (WFP) has assisted one million people in the eastern, northern, and southern oblasts of Ukraine since the start of the Ukraine War. Read the Office of the Commissioner of Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA) report published on Monday (Apr 4).

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily).
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Diplomacy. Forty Russian diplomats are no longer welcome in Germany. They have been given five days to pack their bags and leave. Lithuania has also taken diplomatic action – downgrading its ties with Russia and closing the Russian consulate in Klaipeda. China continues to be allied with Russia – although publicly it says it is not picking sides. The New York Times (subscription) says that the Chinese Communist Party is pushing a campaign that paints Russia as a long-suffering victim rather than as an aggressor. China says that its strong ties with Russia is vital to deterring Western dominance.

U.S. Weapons for Ukraine. The United States has committed to providing more than $1.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Javelins, Stingers, UAVs and more continue to flow to Ukraine. A new development is the news that the U.S. is sending limited quantaties of a more robust version of the Switchblade drone, in addition to the 100 that are supposedly on the way to Ukraine in a previous shipment. The U.S. is continuing its robust schedule of exercises in Europe in conjunction with its NATO partners. The biannual exercise Northern Viking will begin that includes the U.S. 6th Fleet in the Iceland area. This exercise demonstrates the U.S. commitment to the defense of Iceland and the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap – sometimes referred to as the GIUK gap.

Report – Foreign Fights, Mercenaries, and Others. A recently published report examines the non-state actors fighting for Ukraine and Russia. Foreign Fighters, Volunteers, and Mercenaries: Non-State Actors and Narratives in Ukraine, The Soufan Center, April 2022, PDF, 39 pages.

Commentary

Sanctions – Will They Work? Comprehensive sanctions against a country do hurt the target country’s economy. It also can damage the economy of the countries imposing the sanctions. For instance, Russian oil is being sanctioned, but that is putting European nations in an energy crunch. Putting aside America’s untouched energy resources, Iran and Venezuela both can pick up the slack in oil shipments. But both of these countries are also under a sanction regime of sorts. Read more in an article by David Uren – a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. “History shows the West’s sanctions on Russia could backfire”, The Strategist, ASPI, April 5, 2022.

India and Putin’s War. India is taking some hits on its neutral stance on the Ukrainian conflict. However, observers shouldn’t be surprised with the country’s hesitancy to criticize Russia for its aggression towards Ukraine. India depends on Russia for its supply of weapons for India’s armed forces – especially needed to counter the ambitions of Pakistan and China in the South Asian and Indo-Pacific region. India and Russia have a long history of friendship going back to the Cold War. It may be time for India to diversify the sources of its weapons fielded to its military forces. “The Ukraine-Russia War: An Uncertain Future for Indian Defense Modernization”, Georgetown Security Studies Review, April 4, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

Ukraine War Update – April 4, 2022

SOF News — Mon, 04 Apr 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Photo: A prototype Maneuver Short Range Air Defense Stryker assigned to 5-4 Air Defense Artillery Battalion, tracks an Mi-24 Hind during Exercise Saber Strike 22 at BPTA, Poland on February 25, 2022. Read more about the M-SHORAD Weapons System. (U.S. Army photo by Maj. Robert Fellingham)

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Russian Campaign Update

The Russians have failed in most all of their objectives in the war thus far. Reports as late as Sunday night (April 3) on social media and some news organizations say that the Russians have conducted a very large and disorderly withdrawal of much of northern Ukraine. In the haste to retreat enclaves of Russian soldiers are now isolated in northern Ukraine. Some open source situation maps are depicting a huge change on the ground situation over the past 48 hours. (@War_Mapper).

Plan B. The Russians are now making adjustments and have staked out more more realistic goals – primarily the capture of the Donbas region as well as a ‘land bridge’ from Russia along northern shore of the Sea of Azov to Crimea. This means they need to secure the city of Mariupol. They will continue to send reinforcements to the fight in eastern Ukraine.

Donbas. Prior to the February 2022 invasion the Russians controlled 1/3 of the Donbas region, while the Ukrainians controlled the remainder. Young men of the Donbas region are being conscripted by the Russians and sent into combat with little training, old rifles, and no equipment or supplies. (Reuters, Apr 4, 2022). At some point, Putin will declare ‘victory’ after having seized additional areas of the Donbass region and consolidates its hold on the coast of the Sea of Azov running from Russia to Crimea.

Map: Donbas region of Ukraine – circa February 2022. Green is the area considered to be part of the Donbas region. Brown is area occupied by Russian forces prior to the February 24, 2022 invasion.

A SOF Perspective. Mike Repass, a former commander of Special Operations Command – Europe (SOCEUR) is interviewed by Peter Bergen on the conflict in Ukraine. “Retired Army major general: The Russian military invasion has peaked”, CNN.com, April 2, 2022.

Russian War Crimes in Bucha? Social media and news organizations are reporting that while withdrawing from the town of Bucha (see Google maps) in northern Ukraine the Russians killed civilian men, women, and children in what many are calling a massacre. “Streets of Kyiv suburb ‘littered’ with bodies, 280 buried in mass grave”, New York Post, April 2, 2022. Many observers of the conflict say that there will be more such atrocities committed by the Russians (CNN, Apr 4, 2022). The European Union is considering new sanctions on Moscow in light of the ‘Bucha massacre’ and the secretary-general of the United Nations is calling for an independent investigation. (Aljazeera.com, Apr 3, 2022).

Syrians Arrive in Russia. Hundreds of Syrian fighters are now undergoing training in Russia in preparation for a deployment into Ukraine. There are also reports that Syrians have arrived in Belarus for training. Recruiters in Syria have the names of thousands of fighters who are willing to fight for Russia in Ukraine. Syrian fighters have taken part in conflicts in Libya, Azerbaijan, and the Central African Republic. Over 1,000 private contractors with the Wagner Group are fighting for Russia in the Donbas region.

Fight for the Skies. Slovakia is still willing to part with their S-300 anti-aircraft systems and send them to Ukraine . . . but they are waiting on the go-ahead from the United States and an adequate replacement. Germany has sent a Patriot battery to Slovakia. There are rumors that Washington just can’t seem to cut through its own red tape.

In its many years in Syria supporting the Assad regime Russia has employed air strikes on a large scale against Assad’s opponents. It has not been shy about bombing civilian infrastructure and populated areas. A report from 2019 reviews Russia’s air attacks in Syria. “Russia’s airstrike rules of engagement reviewed”, Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), March 14, 2019.

In defense of the aerial attacks on civilian infrastructure and the killing of thousands of civilians Russia has employed the ‘human shield’ argument, saying that Ukrainian forces are deploying their forces, artillery units, and military equipment in residential areas of its cities. “Why we need to challenge Russia’s human shields narrative”, Aljazeera, April 3, 2022.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. However, without the capture of Mykolayiv, an amphibious landing is unlikely. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues. NATO is warning that there is a threat of drifting mines certain areas of the Black Sea. It is also warning that the threat to civilian shipping in the area remains very high.

Ukrainian Defense

A combination of Russian withdrawals and Ukrainian counterattacks have resulted in the Russians vacating areas northwest and north of the capital city of Kyiv. One effective tactic of the Ukrainians appears to be the targeting of senior Russian officers. The number of Russian generals killed is staggering. “Why are so many Russian generals dying in Ukraine?”, The Economist, March 31, 2022.

Striking into Russia. Two MI-24 Hind helicopters are reported to have flown more than 20 miles into Russia destroying an oil depot in the southern city of Belgorod on Friday (Apr 1). Read more in “Ukrainian Attack Helicopters Apparently Just Slipped Into Russia and Blew Up a Fuel Depot”, Forbes.com, April 1, 2022.

Tactical Situation

Kyiv. The Russians have been moving north towards Belarus away from the city of Kyiv. The city is still experiencing aerial attacks from missile strikes. Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said that all Russian troops have left the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine. A curfew has been announced by the government for the Kyiv region recently liberated from Russian occupation so that mines and bombs emplaced by the Russians can be neutralized or removed.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, is still under aerial attack from missiles and rockets. It is not encircled by the Russians and fierce fighting has taken place in the city over the past several weeks. India still has almost 1,000 of its citizens stranded in Kharkiv and Sumy.

Mariupol. The Red Cross was supposed to conduct a major evacuation of citizens from Mariupol on Friday (Apr 1) where 100,000 to 150,000 people remain trapped. However, the Russians are undermining any attempts to conduct an evacuation or to bring relief supplies of food and medicine to the city’s residents. Russia is considered to be just days away from capturing the city. Once captured, the Russian troops committed to the Mariupol siege will likely be involved in the conquest of the eastern Donbas region.

Mykolayiv. Although there is fighting in the outskirts of the city, the Russians are unlikely to be able to capture it. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea.

General Information

Negotiations. Agreements between the Ukrainians and Russians on the evacuation of civilians from besieged cities and the delivery of humanitarian aid have been broken as much as they have been observed. On Friday (Apr 1) the Russians took food and medication that was loaded on 12 buses bound for the southeastern city of Melitopol. They also blocked 45 buses that were to evacuate civilians from Mariupol.

Prisoner Exchange. 86 Ukrainian service personnel were part of a prisoners exchange that took place on Friday (Apr 1) in the Zaporizhzhia region. Of the 86, 15 were women.

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. Many European countries are stepping up to welcome the refugees. Poland has accepted almost 3 million. The Netherlands is accepting 50,000 Ukrainians and about 1,500 of them will spend time on a cruise ship docked in Rotterdam. Is Putin using the Ukrainian refugees as a weapon – attacking NATO with over 4 million refugees? (Small Wars Journal, Apr 3, 2022).

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation (Updated daily).
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Risk of Human Trafficking. Women and children fleeing Ukraine may leave the danger of the conflict area but there is still risk along the path to safety. The secretary-general of the International Federation of the Red Cross has outlined some of the risks that Ukrainians face as refugees. There are reports of suspected sex traffickers and pimps preying on Ukrainian women near refugee shelter points. They are sometimes lured into traps with offers of transport, accommodation, or work. “Refugees fleeing Ukraine at increasing risk of human trafficking, Red Cross warns”, The Telegraph, April 2, 2022. See also “Chaos in shelters for Ukrainian refugees increases risk of trafficking“, Crux, April 3, 2022.

Russian Soldiers and Sexual Violence. Women and girls have recounted the abuse they have suffered at the hands of Russian soldiers. “Rape as a weapon: huge scale of sexual violence endured in Ukraine emerges”, The Guardian, April 3, 2022.

Russia’s Economy – Small Businesses Suffering. Prices for goods and services are going higher everyday, wages are falling, consumption is falling, and supply chain problems are choking the economy. The pullout of foreign businesses and sanctions are hurting the Russians in the pocketbook and wallet. “In targeted Russian economy, businesses operate without Russian products”, The Washington Post, April 2, 2022. Popular opinion among Russians for President Putin has not seemed to have diminished significantly.

Guerrilla Warfare. Alexander Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, says the Ukrainians will soon be conducting guerrilla warfare in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. “Russians Likely to Encounter Growing Guerrilla Warfare in Ukraine”, Foreign Policy, April 1, 2022.

Cyber and Information Operations

Tinder Plus, Romance, and Russia. The people of Russia have been kept in the dark about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian official media is providing a distorted picture of the war and misleading the Russian public. Social media in Russia has been shutdown and international media is banned. But there are ways to get through to the average Russian. Learn more in Outsmart Russian War Censorship With Love, Special Love Operation.com.

Releasing Intel for Effect. The period prior to the Russian’s invading Ukraine and over the past few months have seen an unprecedented release of intelligence to the public by government officials in the U.S., UK, and elsewhere in Europe. Intelligence agencies have been remarkedly willing to go public with their secrets about Putin and the events on the battlefield. Part of the reasoning behind this shift in intelligence sharing with the public is to keep Moscow in line – letting Putin and his generals know that the world is watching their next move . . . in hopes that this will alter their decisions. “Secret intelligence has unusually public role in Ukraine war”, Business Standard, April 3, 2022.

Russian Info Ops. The state of information operations in Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine is examined by several experts. “GCHQ’s Assessment of Russian Information Ops”, Cyber Wire, March 31, 2022.

China’s Disinformation Campaign. Chinese state-backed media have amplified Russian conspiracy theories to spread disinformation about the war in Ukraine to a global audience. They are parroting Moscow’s talking points. It has become clear that China is aligned with Russia in the information environment. “Chinese Disinformation Seeks to Support Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”, IntelBrief by the Soufan Center, March 28, 2022.

World Response

UK’s Starstreak in Action. The first reports on the use of the British Starstreak MANPAD are hitting the press wires. According to one report a Russian helicopter was shot down in the east of the country by a Starstreak missile on Friday (Apr 1). Footage of the attack (@EuromaidenPress) shows the tail section being hit off the Mi-28N helicopter. The missile system has been deployed to Ukraine since late March. “UK missile shoots down first Russian helicopter in Ukraine war”, The Times, April 1, 2022.

German Tanks to Ukraine. Germany has approved sending of 56 former East German army tanks from the Cold War era to Ukraine. Other nations may follow suit. “Soviet-era T-72 Tanks to be Transferred to Ukraine From NATO countries”, The Warzone, April 3, 2022.

$300 Million More for Ukraine from U.S. The United States is sending an additional $300 million in military equipment to Ukraine. These include laser-guide rocket systems, Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems, Puma UAVs, armored wheeled vehicles, ammunition, thermal imagery and optics, communications gear, and more.

“Liaising” not “Training”. Despite references to U.S. troops training Ukrainians in Poland by President Biden during his recent trip to Europe, the DoD is insisting that no training is taking place. The Pentagon denied that it is training Ukrainian soldiers in Poland, saying that the U.S. is merely “liaising” while helping to ship weapons. “US Says It’s Just Hanging Out with Ukrainian Soldiers While Giving Them Weapons, Not Training Them”, Vice.com, March 30, 2022.

Russia’s Trade Status with U.S. A short brief by the Congressional Research Service provides information about the history of Russia’s trading status, the trade impact of removing Russia’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR), World Trade Organization (WTO) issues, and more. Read Russia’s Trade Status, Tariffs, and WTO Issues, CRS IF12071, April 1, 2022, PDF, 3 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12071

Commentary

NATO’s Priority -Air Defense. Putin’s War in Ukraine could easily spill over into the bordering neighboring countries. Poland and the Baltic countries are at considerable risk – especially from the aerial threat posed by Russia’s advanced surface-to-air missile systems and aircraft. NATO must deploy additional anti-air systems and aircraft to the ‘eastern flank countries’. “Priority #1 for NATO: Upgrading Air and Missile Defense in Eastern Europe”, Real Clear Defense, April 4, 2022.

Future of Tanks. The effectiveness of the Ukrainian anti-armor missiles and drone attacks against Russian armor has defense tacticians relooking at the role of the tank in modern warfare. “The future of armoured vehicles: Requirements and capabilities”, Army-Technology.com, March 30, 2022.

Remaking NATO. For several years the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was a construct searching for a purpose. It soon found itself involved in the Afghan War (Article 5 was invoked in support of the U.S.) and in Iraq with its training mission. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine it now is being re-purposed back to its original mission – confronting Russia (the nucleus of the old Soviet Union). Read more in “The War in Ukraine is Remaking the NATO Alliance”, by Andrew A. Michta, Real Clear Defense, April 4, 2022.

Videos and Podcasts

Video – Ukrainian Drones. Ukraine’s success against Russia can be accredited in some part to its ability to improvise equipment. A firm that manufactured drones for the agricultural industry has switched gears to make drones for the Ukrainian army. Watch “Ukrainian defenders show off improvised drones”, Forces.net, April 1, 2022, 2 minutes.

Video – Ukraine SOF and the Rifle Malyuk. An indigenous rifle seems to be a favorite weapon of the Ukrainian special operations forces. Watch a video entitled How Ukraine’s Rifle Malyuk is Helping its Special Forces Hold Out Against Putin’s Troops”, CRUX YouTube, March 26, 2022, 6 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVkZY7FvwMM

Podcast – Putin’s Losses. CSIS International Security Program director Dr. Seth Jones takes part in a discussion about Putin’s battlefield missteps, Russia’s path going forward, how Ukraine can defend itself, and what the United States can do to support Ukraine. The Truth of the Matter, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), March 31, 2022. https://www.csis.org/node/64679

Podcast – Putin’s Bad Cyber Plan. Listen to a discussion about Russia’s cyber capability and willingness to wage cyberwar with Ukraine and NATO. The Truth of the Matter, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), March 31, 2022. https://www.csis.org/node/64672

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Weapons of the Ukraine War.
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/weapons.html

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Ukraine War Update – April 1, 2022

SOF News — Fri, 01 Apr 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Map: Donbas Region of Ukraine, US Department of Defense, March 29, 2022. According to a recent Russian military press conference Russia has attained its immediate operational goals and will now focus on the ‘liberation’ of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Read more on the Donbas region below.

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Russian Campaign Update

Donbas Region. The Russians have stated that it will now concentrate on the Donbas region of Ukraine as the main effort. This area is a historical, cultural, and economic region in southeastern Ukraine. Parts of Donbas are controlled by separatist groups who call themselves the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. Prior to the February 2022 invasion 2/3’s of the Donbas region was held by the Ukrainian government and 1/3 by the separatists.

Ground War. The Russians conducted offensive attacks in the Donbas region and in the seaside city of Mariupol. The Russians are withdrawing some of their units from their positions northwest of Kyiv and positioning in Belarus for refit and resupply. These units will likely cross the Belarus / Russia border and circle around through Russia to be inserted into the Donbas area of operations. There are new reports (early April 1) on social media that there was a large pullout of Russian troops from the north and west of Kyiv (unconfirmed).

Maritime Activities. Very little Russian naval activity has taken place for the last few days. The Black Sea has become a danger zone for shipping due to Russian warships firing on merchant ships and the presence of mines. Navigational warnings are out on the northwest, west, and southwest parts of the Black Sea.

Fight for the Skies. As of Thursday (Mar 31) the Russians have launched over 1,400 missiles into Ukraine. Neither Ukraine nor Russia have air superiority of the airspace above Ukraine. Both nations field sufficient anti-aircraft systems to make flights over Ukraine dangerous for pilots.

Where Not to Dig in Your Defensive Position. Russian troops in the vicinity of Chernobyl (think nuclear radiation contamination) have been moved from that area and are heading north into Belarus. Apparently they dug in defensive perimeters, disturbing radioactive soil, and now hundreds of Russian soldiers are sick.

Manning Shortage. National security experts often cite the vast resources of Russian manpower versus the finite numbers of the Ukrainian military. They then draw the conclusion that in a prolonged struggle, Russia will simply grind away at the Ukrainian army. After 2007, Russia made a stab at modernizing its military – buying equipment, but maintaining a much smaller army. Now it appears that Russia does not have enough soldiers – and that the differences between a conscript and contract soldier is very important within the context of the Ukraine conflict. “Is the Russian Military Running Out of Soldiers?”, National Interest, March 28, 2022.

Russian Conscripts to be Drafted. A decree was published by the Russian government on Monday (Mar 28) that stated Russian men between the ages of 18 and 27 will be drafted from April 1 to July 15. The Russian Defense Ministry says conscripts won’t be sent to any ‘hot spots’. “Putin ordering draft of 135,000 amid difficulties in Ukraine war”, The Hill, March 31, 2022.

A Clueless Putin? Some news reports say that U.S. intelligence sources believe that President Putin has been misinformed about the invasion by his aides who are fearful of his reaction to the real situation on the ground in Ukraine. He apparently was unaware that ‘conscripts’ were deployed to and fighting in Ukraine. His aides have been giving him ‘good news’ instead of ‘bad news’ and during the weeks prior to the invasion provided an optimistic outcome to the invasion. He has responded with the firing of several intelligence and senior military officers.

Ukrainian Defense

The Ukrainian military conducted some local counterattacks in the Kyiv vicinity, in parts of northeastern Ukraine, and in the south. They seem to have the Russians on their back foot. Weapons from NATO and other countries continue to flow into Ukraine. The Ukrainians are holding onto the cities and key terrain in southern Ukraine along the coast of the Black Sea. The cities in this region face a ground force threat from the direction of Crimea as well as shelling and possible amphibious landings by Russian naval forces afloat in the Black Sea. Some social media accounts are reporting that Ukrainian helicopters crossed the Russian border and blew up a Russian fuel depot.

Tactical Situation

Kyiv. Russian forces were pushed north of the E-40 highway that runs east-west from Kyiv to western Ukraine. Some news reports say that the Hostomel airport northwest of the city is now in Ukrainian hands. About 20 per cent (and perhaps much more) of the Russian forces to the north and northwest of Kyiv are repositioning to Belarus. The capital city of Ukraine was considered the primary objective of the Russians and would have would allowed Russia to put in place its puppet government.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is situated along the road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. It has been a long slog for the Ukrainian defenders and horrific for its civilian residents. Most observers have been predicting the capture of Mariupol ‘in the next few days’ for the last few weeks. Over 100,000 residents await evacuation. There are accusations that the Russians are illegally deporting Mariupol residents to the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast. Read more in “Voices from the siege of Mariupol”, The Washington Post, March 30, 2022.

Mykolayiv and Odessa. The Ukrainians are holding fast in Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Odessa is safe for the time being although it is getting shelled, especially in the neighborhoods along the shoreline. This is key terrain for the Russians. The capture of Mykolayiv and Odessa would pave the way for the Russians to control the entire shoreline of the Sea of Azov from the Donbas region all along the northern coastline of the Black Sea to the breakaway (Russian-held) Moldovan region of Transnistria. This would greatly enhance Russia’s strategic position in the Black Sea and reduce the economic power of Ukraine.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

General Information

Negotiations. The talks continue. Various news and social media accounts say the two sides are getting closer to an agreement. Some observers say that this is just a ploy for Russia to look good in the international press while at the same time repositioning and refitting its troops for the next phase of the war.

A Possible Peace Deal? Conflict resolution isn’t just for wooly-headed idealists. Although the defeat of the Russian army, withdrawal of the Russian forces from all of Ukraine (including Crimea), and the replacement of Putin as the leader of Russia are all desired outcomes . . . it isn’t going to happen. Most all wars end via negotiations. And compromises must be made. “The Realist Case for a Ukraine Peace Deal”, Belfer Center Harvard University, March 29, 2022.

Video – Negotiating With Putin. A video compilation delivers highly relevant insights from Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and Rex Tillerson on chatting with Putin. These former U.S. Secretaries of States provide some excellent advice on future negotiations with the Russians. Belfer Center, Harvard University, March 26, 2022, 55 minutes.

Russia and Nuclear Power Plants. Since the invasion on February 24 the Russians have seized two of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. The Chernobyl nuclear plant (closed 2000) was seized on the first day of the invasion. On March 4, the Russians attacked and captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. A recent report by the Congressional Research Service provides more details on the four nuclear power plants currently operating in Ukraine, reactor safety systems, reactor safety risks from Russian attacks, and the international response. Russian Military Actions at Ukraine’s Nuclear Power Plants, CRS IN11883, March 31, 2022, PDF, 4 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11883

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. As of March 31, 2022, over 4 million refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The long term problem of Ukrainian refugees across Europe needs to be addressed. Read more in “With the Ukrainians, Avoid the Mistakes of Other Refugee Crises”, RAND Corporation, March 25, 2022.

Wheat and Ukraine. The ‘breadbasket of Europe’ will soon be trying to sow the soil at the same time it is fighting for its national survival. Planting season has arrived. But most of the country’s men are at war. Not only will this affect the supply of food over the next year for Ukrainians, but it will have a drastic effect in Africa and other parts of the world. “Ukraine’s other fight: Growing food for itself and the world”, AP News, March 29, 2022.

Military Trainers and Weapons

U.S. Vet Trains Ukrainians. For two weeks in March, Matt Gallagher – a U.S. war veteran and book author – trained Ukrainian civilians in the basics of urban combat in the city of Lviv, Ukraine. Here is his story. It is a good read. “Notes from Lviv”, Esquire, March 31, 2022.

California NG and Ukraine. The California National Guard has had a close working relationship with the Ukraine military and the Ukraine National Guard since 1993. Over the past 29 years the CA NG, as part of the State Partnership Program, has been paired with Ukraine – forming close partnerships between units and individuals that have lasted for decades. “Ukraine-California Ties Show Worth of National Guard Program”, The Sentinel, March 18, 2022.

US Not Training Ukrainians in Poland? The Department of Defense and Biden administration are taking extreme pains to ‘deny’ that the US is training Ukrainian troops in Poland. President Biden, during his visit to Poland last week, managed to confuse everyone when he indicated that American troops were training Ukrainian soldiers on Polish territory. Defense reporters are ‘digging into’ the story; perhaps wondering, if as these various weapons systems are handed off to the Ukrainians in various locations in southeast Poland that maybe ‘a little training’ might be taking place. John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, has been insisting that any conversations or discussions about the weapons and material being handed to Ukrainians are not “training in the classic sense”. “US Says It’s Just Hanging Out with Ukrainian Soldiers While Giving Them Weapons, Not Training Them”, Vice News, March 30, 2022.

Javelin Missiles. One of the many factors for the ability of the Ukrainians to hold off a larger invading army with lots of tanks are the use of the Javelin anti-tank missiles. The U.S. has been providing the Javelins for several years. Read about the capabilities of this anti-tank weapon and how the Ukrainians are employing it on the battlefield. “DEEP DIVE: The U.S. Military Program to Arm Ukraine with Javelin Anti-Tank Missiles”, The Sentinel, March 2, 2022.

Bushmaster Troop Carriers. It appears that Australia will soon be helping out Ukraine with some armored vehicles. The Australian designed and built Bushmaster will likely be transported by C-17s in a matter of weeks. The vehicles are highly mobile and will safeguard its occupants against mines, IEDs, small arms, artillery blasts, and fragmentation. The Australians have about 1,000 Bushmasters in their inventory. some are in service with the UK Special Air Service, The Netherlands, New Zealand, and other nations. Could Australia’s Abrams tanks be next? “Australia to send Bushmaster armoured vehicles to Ukraine”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, April 1, 2022.

Cyber and Information Operations

Ukraine’s Internet – Still Working. Constant attention by telecom workers and exaggerated assumptions about Russia’s cyber capabilities has proved some cyber experts wrong. Many thought that Russia would interrupt Ukraine’s use of the internet, but it hasn’t happened. Although a decline in traffic has taken place, messages on social media and other means are getting out to the rest of the world. That is helping Ukraine drive the narrative about Putin’s War. In addition, essential services are still up and running as well as the cellular phone service. Read more in “How Ukraine’s Internet is still working despite Russian bombs and cyberattacks“, The Washington Post, March 29, 2022.

World Response

Spies Sent Home. A number of European countries have sent Russian ‘diplomats’ home. Many of them are probably up to no good – conducting intelligence gathering missions. Several nations expelled Russians on Monday (Mar 28) and Tuesday (Mar 29). In previous days, other nations have done the same. “Europeans expel dozens of Russian envoys to combat espionage”, AP News, March 29, 2022.

U.S. Forces to Remain – For a While. The 82nd Airborne Division elements (about a brigade), air units, and others (totaling about 20,000) sent in February and March will likely remain there for a while. Most are now in the frontline NATO states of the Baltic republics, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania. The USS Harry S. Truman carrier Strike Group will remain in the Mediterranean Sea for an indefinite period as well. The United States continues to provide Ukraine with a mixture of weapons systems, body armor, food, helmets, small arms, ammunition, and medical supplies. The 100 Switchblade drones that has captured the world’s attention have yet to reach Ukraine.

Commentary

Podcast – Russia’s New Line. Polina Ivanova, Moscow correspondent for the Financial Times, talks about the recent Russian military press conference (Mar 25) that seemed to walk back Russia’s war aims in the Ukraine conflict. Lawfare Podcast, March 28, 2022, 35 minutes.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-polina-ivanova-russias-new-line

UK’s Integrated Review. For the past few years, the United Kingdom has embarked on a doctrinal shift and transition from Europe and the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region. It has reorganized its forces and taken on new equipment requirements to make this new adjustment. This major endeavor was called the Integrated Review or IR. In fact, it prompted a restructuring of British special forces as well. Now the problem of Russia once again emerges as a primary concern for Europe. “What is to be done? Ukraine and the IR”, Wavell Room, March 23, 2022.

Ukraine War – Winners and Losers. Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, looks at the big picture and predicts who the winners and losers are in the war thus far. Ukraine and NATO look like winners, Russia and the United Nations look like losers. Germany has stepped up and China is caught in the middle. “The early winners and losers in Putin’s War”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, April 1, 2022.

Full Force Russian Invasion and NATO Half Measures. History may very well judge the West harshly for being over cautious and not intervening earlier and more decisively in the Ukraine conflict. At the same time that we withhold equipment vital to Ukraine’s defense (aircraft, tanks, etc.) and refrain from more effective actions (no-fly zone and boots on the ground), we encourage the Ukrainian’s to fight on against overwhelming odds. Two former intelligence officials share their thoughts with us in “The Cruelty of Half Measures in Ukraine”, The Cipher Brief, March 28, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Janes Equipment Profile – Ukraine Conflict. An 81-page PDF provides information on the military equipment of the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces. Covers naval, air, electronic warfare, C4ISR, communications, night vision, radar, and armored fighting vehicles, Ukraine Conflict Equipment Profile, February 28, 2022.
https://www.janes.com/docs/default-source/ukraine-conflict/equipment-profile_report_280222.pdf

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

Ukraine War Update – March 30, 2022

SOF News — Wed, 30 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Photo: A U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler. The U.S. has sent six Growlers to Europe, see story below. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman John Linzmeier, May 3, 2017.

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Russian Campaign Update

While the Russian offensive seems stalled, it still has significant combat power in Ukraine and it may have the capability to sustain that combat power if the logistics flow is fixed. It is refining its ‘goals’, to something more attainable; the capture of parts of eastern Ukraine along the Russian border. A senior Russian defense official said that his military planned to cut back military activity near the Ukrainian capital (Kyiv) in an effort to increase trust around the peace talks. This is likely just a move to reposition units to the eastern regions of Ukraine. The units pulled back will reorganize and resupply themselves before being committed to forward areas. There will likely be more Russian activity in the east and south of Ukraine over the future weeks.

The Russian military will continue to use mass artillery and missile strikes to compensate for its lack of forward progress on the ground. According to the commander of European Command (EUCOM), Russia has fired ‘multiple’ hypersonic missiles into Ukraine against military targets. (Defense One, Mar 29, 2022).

Fight for the Skies. The air war has not followed the usual flow that have been observed in past conflicts. Most wars start off with both sides fighting for the skies and one side finally establishing air superiority. Then the side with the advantage in the air moves on to support the ground effort with close air support. This hasn’t happened in the Ukraine War. There are too many air defense systems in the area of operations employed by both sides of the conflict.

Drones. However, drones are making an impact – especially those used by the Ukrainians. It is still cold out in Ukraine and the Russians are living in field conditions. The tank crews keep their massive steel hulks warm by running the engines. That provides a heat signature at night for the armed drones of the Ukrainian military. In addition to the armed drones wreaking havoc on Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers (APCs), and fuel trucks are the surveillance drones (ISR) scouting out the terrain for Russian units, vehicles, and convoys. These ISR drones feed information into the situation overlays of the Ukrainian operations centers for planning purposes and to artillery units for targeting data.

Small SOF Drone Unit with Big Impact. A specialized force of 30 soldiers on quad bikes helped stop the 40-mile Russian convoy in its tracks. Night ambushes were carried out by a team of Ukrainian special forces and drone operators roaming up and down the Russian convoy. The unit was equipped with night vision goggles, sniper rifles, remotely detonated mines, and drones equipped with thermal imaging cameras and small 1.5kg bombs. “The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv”, The Guardian, March 28, 2022.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues. There are a lot of merchant ships stranded in Ukrainian ports. The United Nations is pressing for their safe passage out of danger so that the world’s food supply is not threatened.

World’s Grain Supply. Some 30% of the world’s grain comes from Russia and Ukraine. Most of the grain departing Ukraine goes by ship via the Black Sea and on into the Mediterranean Sea. However, Russia is currently blocking 94 ships with food from leaving Ukrainian ports.

Ground Fight. The Ukrainians are on the offensive in many areas of the country. The suburban town of Irpin (northwest of Kyiv) has been taken back from the Russians. Kharkiv is still being resupplied and the city of Sumy is receiving supplies. Even Kherson in the south seems to be contested due to a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russia has been deploying banned anti-personnel mines in the Kharkiv region according to a new report by Human Rights Watch published on March 29, 2022.

Tank Division Reduced. According to Ukrainian defense officials, the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division has suffered a huge defeat just 15 miles from the Russian border. Due to a lack of fuel and food the division became less capable and was overwhelmed by Ukrainian infantry units armed with anti-armor weapons. See “Ukrainians Obliterate the Elite Russian 4th Guards Tank Division 15 Miles from Russian Border”, SOFREP, March 28, 2022.

Tactical Situation

Kyiv. In the initial days of the invasion the capital city of Ukraine was considered the primary objective of the Russians. However, the attack was stalled by the Ukrainians. It appears that some Russian units are being withdrawn from the Kyiv region back to Belarus for a subsequent repositioning to other conflict zones in Ukraine, most likely the eastern sector. Over 2 million of its 4 million residents have fled the city.

Mariupol. The fall of this city to the Russians may happen within days. The Russians continue to advance street by street, block by block. This city had a pre-invasion population of about 430,000. There are reports that thousands of residents have been forcibly evacuated from the city by the Russians and are now headed to distant Russian cities.

Mykolayiv. This city is suffering from constant missile attacks by the Russians. It is contested and there is a lot of fighting around the perimeter of the city. Reports on social media on Tuesday (Mar 29) stated that a large column of Russian troops were headed to Mykolayiv from Kherson. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

General Information

Negotiations. Talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials held on Tuesday (Mar 29) covered a wide range of topics. These included Crimea, the Donbas region (eastern Ukraine), and security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine is looking for international security guarantees to ensure another Russian attack does not occur in the future. Most observers believe that the parties are getting a little closer to an agreement. One result of the negotiations over the past few days resulted in a prisoner exchange. One group returned were the Border Guards on Snake Island who were told to surrender by a Russian warship. They responded with “Russian warship, “Go **** ********”.

“Ukrainians are not naïve, we see risks in peace talks. Of course, we see all the risks. Of course, we don’t have a reason to trust the words of representatives of a country that wages war against us.”
President Zelensky

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. As of March 30, over 3,900,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). Almost seven million have been internally displaced. This means about 25% of Ukraine’s population has left their homes. About 2.3 million Ukrainians left for Poland. More than 12 million are in constant danger due to being close to conflict zones or cities under siege. A significant proportion of the population is in need of clean water, food, medicine, and shelter. Almost one million are lacking access to electricity. Read a report on the humanitarian crisis provided by ACAPS, March 29, 2022, PDF, 9 pages.

U.S. Intelligence. The United States intelligence community miscalculated on how long the Afghan army and Afghan government would hold out against the Taliban last summer – many feeling that the government would hold out until the spring of 2022. The same intel gurus also erred on their predictions about how quickly the Russians would take Kyiv – some saying that the conflict would last just a few days. Up to this past Friday, most national security observers were predicting a long fight that would grind away at the Ukrainians as the Russians pumped more tanks, artillery, and troops into Ukraine. Now, the ‘experts’ don’t seem that sure. Hopefully, the intel guys are making up for their faulty intel forecasts by passing info to the Ukrainian military that is helpful to the targeting of Russian formations in Ukraine.

WhatsApp Messages from Ukraine to Russia. Audio recordings, phone calls, and WhatsApp messages are being sent by Ukrainian telecom specialists to dissuade troops from deploying to Ukraine. “Inside Ukraine’s Psyops on Russian and Belarusian Soldiers”, New Lines Magazine, March 29, 2022.

U.S. Cyber Attack on Russia? The Russian Foreign Ministry has accused the United States of “. . . waging a large-scale cyberattack against Russia.” A US spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council says that it hasn’t happened. Hmmm. (Russian Foreign Ministry, Mar 29, 2022).

World Response

Navy Growlers to Europe. The United States is sending six EA-18 Growlers to be based at Spangdahlem in Germany. They will be flying missions in support of “eastern flank deterrence and defense”. The typical mission for the EA-18 is electronic warfare and radar jamming to suppress enemy air defense. According to a DoD spokesman, the Growlers will be based in Europe to reinforce deterrence capabilities of NATO’s Eastern Flank, and will not engage Russian assets. The aircraft are from VAQ-134 based at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Washington. About 240 personnel from the unit will deploy, including air crew, aircraft maintainers, and pilots. “6 Navy ‘Growler’ Aircraft Headed to Germany to Support Deterrence Mission”, DoD News, March 28, 2022.

Marines from Norway to the Eastern Flank. U.S. Marine air assets participating in the Cold Response 22 exercise in Norway will be deploying to Lithuania. The deployment includes ten FA-18s as well as C-130s. See “400 Marines deploy in Eastern Europe as part of US response to Ukraine War”, Marine Times, March 29, 2022.

UK’s Starstreak Missiles. The Ukrainians are now ready to use the Starstreak high velocity missiles against the Russians. The missiles are now in the hands of the Ukrainians and they have received training on their operation. The MANPADs can be launched from the shoulder or when mounted on a vehicle. Learn more in “All You Need to Know About the Starstreak Missiles Now in the Hands of Ukrainian Troops”, The War Zone, March 28, 2022.

Canadian Veterans Assist Former Interpreters. Some former Ukrainian interpreters (numbering around 25) who assisted Canadian forces deployed to Ukraine over the past several years are getting help. A small group of Canadian veterans are now in southeast Poland assisting in the evacuation and support of these former interpreters. “Veterans who rescued Afghan interpreters bring Canadian Forces interpreters out of Ukraine”, Global News (CA), March 25, 2022.

Commentary

Red Line Needed. The Russians can’t achieve success on the battlefield with its armor and infantry. But they can level Ukrainian cities and force them to submit with their artillery and missiles. Perhaps a ‘no atrocities’ red line is needed; meaning the indiscriminate bombardment of civilians in Ukrainian cities will not be tolerated by the West. Air strikes using air-launched stand-off weapons against Russian artillery and missile launch positions in Ukraine would result in crossing the red line. Kevin R. James goes into detail on this topic in “The West must draw a red line for Russian in Ukraine”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 30, 2022.

More Weapons Needed. The Russians may have been ‘stalled’ in their offensive to take Kyiv and other major cities in eastern Ukraine; but they are still on the offensive. They will concentrate their forces in the east and south of Ukraine and continue with their missile, propaganda, and cyber attacks. The Russians will also be bringing in more troops from the far east, Georgia, and mobilized reserve forces. The Ukrainians can prevail but need more weapons at a faster pace. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow at FPRI’s Eurasia Program and a book author. He provides his thoughts in “What Ukraine Needs Now”, Real Clear Defense, March 29, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

Ukraine War Update – March 29, 2022

SOF News — Tue, 29 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Photo: Members of 1st Battalion, 10th Special Forces prepare to fastrope from a helicopter. The 10th SFG(A) area of responsibility includes Europe. Photo by SSG Larraine Whetsone, SOCEUR, August 3, 2016.

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Russian Campaign Update

Ukrainian forces have stopped the Russians in the Kyiv area. The Russians are continuing to advance . . . slowly . . . in the seaport of Mariupol. The Russians appear to be focused on reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. More than 1,370 missiles have been launched against Ukraine. Most of the cruise missile strikes are coming from inside Russia or Belarus. Russia is sending some of its troops that have been based in the country of Georgia to Ukraine.

Wagner Group. The press continues to note the use of the Russian’s Wagner Group in Ukraine. Russia is sending (or has sent) over 1,000 members of the private military company into the conflict. There are reports that up to 400 members of this group are operating in Kyiv to try and decapitate the Ukrainian government. There have been at least three attempts on the life of Ukrainian President Zelensky. Read more in “Putin’s Hitmen: How Mercenaries Serve the Kremlin at the Expense of Stability”, Georgetown Security Studies Review, March 28, 2022. See also “Wagner Group mercenaries deployed to eastern Ukraine: UK intelligence“, Washington Examiner, March 29, 2022.

Casualties. The Russians have suffered significant casualties. Some estimates say that the total is more than the Russians lost during the ten-year war in Afghanistan – and this in only one month in Ukraine. Olga Ivshina, a BBC World correspondent, breaks down the casualties by type (airborne, armor, officer, etc.) and from which units and regions of Russia, in her Twitter feed.

Ukrainian Defense

More than 510,000 Ukrainian citizens have returned from foreign countries since the Russian invasion. Almost 80 per cent of them are men, most who join the Ukrainian military. A Ukrainian bank is offering 100,000 rubles to Russian soldiers who surrender their weapons and equipment. The Russians have occupied the city of Kherson, located north of Crimea, but the Ukrainians are conducting a counterattack to try and take the city back.

Tactical Situation

Kyiv. One of the suburbs outside of Kyiv to the northwest, Irpin, has been retaken from the Russians on Monday (Mar 28) according to Ukrainian defense officials. This town has been the scene of heavy fighting for the past month. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. Although the Russians recently stated that Kyiv is not an objective for the Russian invasion they continue to build up forces in the vicinity of the capital. On the north and northwest the Russians are still about 15 to 20 kilometers away. To the east and northeast, they hold positions about 55 kilometers from the Kyiv city center.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. There have been no significant changes in the tactical situation for Kharkiv, although it continues to receive heavy shelling. The city is not encircled and continues to receive supplies from the interior of Ukraine.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. It is estimated that more than 5,000 civilians have been killed by the Russians in this city. Over 150,000 residents have fled the city, most going to western Ukraine or other European countries. The evacuation routes from the city may soon be under Russian control. Stavros Atlamazoglou writes about Mariupol – “Russia’s New Military Strategy for Ukraine: Conquer Mariupol?”, 1945, March 28, 2022.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War. For those interested in what languages are spoken in Ukraine – Language Map of Ukraine.

General Information

Negotiations. President Zelensky says that his country is prepared to discuss ‘neutrality’ in talks with Russia. Talks are taking place in Istanbul, Turkey between representatives of the two nations on Tuesday (Mar 29). There are no plans for a Putin – Zelensky meeting. Among other demands, the Russians want to see the annexation of Crimea and independence of Dongas recognized by Ukraine. There are indications that the negotiations are getting closer to some sort of agreement. Three of Russia’s initial demands may no longer be in play: “denazification, “demilitarization”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. The United Nations is proposing a humanitarian ceasefire that will allow for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and evacuation of civilians from the contested areas. (UN News, Mar 28, 2022).

Refugees, IDPs, and Humanitarian Crisis. As of March 29, over 3,800,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The European Commission Emergency Response Center (ERCC) has published a map depicting the population displacement and casualties caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine (Mar 28). Over 2.2 million have gone to Poland, 275,000 to Slovakia, 350,000 to Hungary, almost 600,000 to Romania, and near to 400,000 to Moldova. Poland has received over 60% of the refugees. The European Council has adopted an implementing decision introducing temporary protection due to the mass influx of persons fleeing Ukraine. The rights include residence, access to the labor market, housing, medical assistance, and access to education for children.

Biden’s Message. The president delivered a fairly good speech this past Friday (Mar 25) in Poland. His speechwriter(s) should be commended on the performance . . . as he was saying all the right things. Not a lot of substance, but some excellent soundbites. That is . . . until he goes off script. A lot of discussion has taken place in the U.S., in Europe, and in Russia about his off the cuff comment: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power”. Biden hasn’t back tracked on his statement saying “I make no apologies”.

Cyber Operations in Ukraine War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been characterized by a relative lack of major cyber operations . . . at least compared to what was expected. Read an accounting of those cyber activities that have taken place. “Tracking Cyber Operations and Actors in the Russia-Ukraine War”, Council on Foreign Relations, March 24, 2022. Another report says that a Ukrainian internet service provider used by the country’s military was hit with a cyberattack on Monday (Mar 28). Services have been restored.

World Response

Report – U.S. Assistance to Ukraine. Since the Russian invasion in February 2022 the United States has authorized a total of $1.35 billion to provide immediate security assistance to help Ukraine. Much of this aid is focused on meeting the threats posed by Russian aircraft and armored vehicles. In addition, billions of dollars have been appropriated to replenish DoD equipment stocks sent or to be sent to Ukraine. A recent report by the Congressional Research Service provides more details. U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine, CRS IF12040, March 28, 2022, PDF, 3 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040

US Weapons Production. The US military stockpiles of Javelin missiles (anti-armor) and Stinger missiles (anti-air) are being depleted as they are sent to Ukraine. The Defense Department plans to increase the production of these weapons so it can restock its shelves and continue to send some to Ukraine. (CNN Politics, March 29, 2022).

India – Staking Out That Middle Ground. Despite international isolation of the Kremlin, India continues to maintain its supportive relationship with Russia. A great concern of India is China; and India, thinking long-term, sees Russia as a counterweight to China’s ambitions in Asia and the Pacific region. India also relies on Russian weapons to meet its defense requirements. And then there is the Russian oil that could help India’s economy. Read more in “India Preserves Relations with Russia After Ukraine Invasion”, The Soufan Center IntelBrief, March 29, 2022.

Volunteering for Ukraine Duty? There have been numerous volunteers from the United States that have headed to Europe to take part in the fight against Russian aggression against Ukraine. So what is the legal status of these volunteers? Are they breaking any U.S. laws or regulations? Find out more in U.S. Nationals and Foreign Military Service, Congressional Research Service, CRS IF12068, March 28, 2022, PDF, 3 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12068

Commentary

Understanding Putin. There are three major issues to consider in why Russia invaded Ukraine, and they revolve around what goes on in the mind of the Russian president. The first is Putin’s perception of why the USSR collapsed 30 years ago and the resulting humiliation of losing the Cold War. The second is Putin’s views about the eastward expansion of NATO and the alleged threat to Russia. The third is why Putin thinks Ukraine is part of Russia. Paul Dibb, a professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, details these three points in “Putin’s revanchist excuses for going to war”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 29, 2022.

Proxy War. The U.S. and Europe are currently engaged in a ‘proxy war’ with Russia. These types of ‘conflicts’ will sometimes escalate into general war. But it may be the West’s best option. “A Proxy War in Ukraine is the Worst Possible Outcome – Except for All the Others”, War on the Rocks, March 28, 2022.

Food as a Weapon. The conflict in Ukraine is threatening the world’s food system. Russia and Ukraine supply 30% of the world’s wheat. Over 40% of the wheat from Ukraine goes to African nations. According to the European Union’s Agriculture Commissioner, Russia is intentionally attacking Ukraine’s agriculture infrastructure. In 1932 and 1933 the Soviet Union used starvation as a tactic against the people of Ukraine and millions died. Almost 4 million Ukrainians died during the efforts of Stalin to impose collectivism and tamp down Ukrainian nationalism. Read more in “Weaponizing Food”, Articles of War, Lieber Institute West Point, March 28, 2022.

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

Ukraine War Update – March 28, 2022

SOF News — Mon, 28 Mar 2022 05:00:00 +0000

Photo: Special Forces Soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 10th Special Forces Group deploy light tactical vehicles from a CH-47 Chinook helicopter from the 1st Combat Aviation Brigade during exercise Saber Junction in Germany. The 10th SFG(A)’s primary area of responsibility is Europe. (photo SOCEUR Twitter 12 Dec 2019).

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are). Thanks to those readers sending us links to stories they think we should highlight! staff@sof.news.

Russian Campaign Update

In an apparent shift in campaign objectives, Russia has decided to focus on the areas of eastern Ukraine along the Russian border. It stated in a recent press conference that Kyiv is no longer an objective, although the Russian troops arrayed around much of Kyiv have not departed. Russia is moving reinforcements from the country of Georgia, a country that was invaded by Russia in 2008. Now that some of Russia’s forces are in defensive positions, they are emplacing mines in front of their perimeters. This will slow down Ukrainian counterattacks and pose a problem for Ukraine far into the future.

Fight for the Skies. Apparently, some of Russia’s precision-guided missiles are not that precise. Some are failing to launch, many miss their intended targets, and some that do, fail to detonate. The United States has estimated that the missiles have between a 20% to a 60% failure rate. On Saturday (Mar 26) a record 70 missiles were fired by Russia on Ukraine. The US DoD estimates that as of Friday (Mar 25) the Russians have launched over 1,250 missiles into Ukraine.

Maritime Activities. Floating sea mines are going to pose a problem for maritime traffic in the Black Sea for some time. (Naval News, Mar 27, 2022). An amphibious landing force of several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues. See also “New Heights of Russian Hypocrisy and “Unlawfare” in the Black Sea”, CIMSEC, March 25, 2022.

Russian Generals and Upward Mobility. By some counts, at least seven Russian generals have been killed in Putin’s War. At this rate, if this war continues, the number of senior officer promotions will accelerate in the Russian army.

Russian Artillery – MIA. One aspect of the war in Ukraine that deserves further study is the lack of effectiveness of Russia’s much-vaunted artillery. Considered a mainstay of the Russian offense, the artillery support seems deficient. Perhaps the striking of civilian infrastructure is diverting the artillery barrages from being used during tactical operations. Read more in “Russian Prototypes, Cope-cages, and Missing Artillery”, Vantage Point North, March 27, 2022.

Russian Armor. The tank columns of the Russian army have been decimated by the Ukrainian forces. Small, roving bands of Ukrainian soldiers are ambushing the tanks using anti-tank weapons. Many tanks have been stuck in mud, out of fuel, or victims of Russian tank crews abandoning the fight. “With Captured Tanks, Ukraine Now Has More Armor Than When The War Began”, by Howard Altman, Coffee or Die Magazine, March 26, 2022.

Russian Comms. There are some apparent deficiencies in the planning and execution of the communications plan for the invasion of Ukraine. Some units are relying on unencrypted push-to-talk radios and cell phones. Some units have their comms systems up and running while others do not. The Ukrainian military and intelligence services are taking advantage of the poor communications practices of the invaders. “Russian troops’ tendency to talk on unsecured lines is proving costly”, The Washington Post, March 27, 2022.

Ukrainian Defense

Conducting some limited counterattacks, the Ukrainian military has put up a successful defense of many of the cities the Russians had attempted to capture. But now “the real hard task begins”. Read more in an article posted by Andrew Milburn from Kyiv in “Russia’s war in Ukraine is far from over”, Task & Purpose, March 26, 2022.

Ukraine’s Intel Chief Speaks Out. Howard Altman interviews Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the defense intelligence agency head, on how the war is progressing and the intelligence coups that have helped the Ukrainian military face off against the Russians. “Ukraine’s Intel Chief: We have sources in the Kremlin, but we need jets”, Coffee or Die Magazine, March 27, 2022.

Starstreak System. The skies over Ukraine will soon get a little bit more dangerous for Russian pilots. The British Starstreak system – a shoulder-mounted missile used against low flying jets – will soon be on the ground in Ukraine. “British-made Starstreak missiles are ready to be deployed in Ukraine”, MSN.com, March 26, 2022.

Insurgency and Resistance – a Critical Role. Russian forces are still slowly advancing. They are not likely to give up much of the territory that they currently hold, unless the Ukrainian military forces them off that terrain. So the war, in those occupied territories, may become one of insurgent versus counter-insurgent. While there are plenty of fighters that will conduct guerrilla operations in the enemies rear – they won’t last long without the support of the civilian population. This means an underground, shadow government (on the local level), and auxiliary are critical. An Army Civil Affairs officer explains in “Oft Forgotten but Critical Elements of Ukrainian Resistance”, War on the Rocks, March 28, 2022.

Tactical Situation

Donbass. The bulk of the Ukrainian army is concentrated in eastern Ukraine and the Russians are attempting to secure all of the area referred to as Donbas. They are likely attempting reposition their forces, shorten their supply lines, and cut off Ukrainian forces in the east from their own supply lines. The key objective in this ‘new plan’ is the besieged city of Mariupol.

Mariupol. The Russians continue to make small, incremental advances into the city. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. France and Turkey are in talks with Russia to assist in a joint humanitarian mission for Mariupol. Over 100,000 residents remain in the seaport on the Sea of Azov.

Kyiv. At one time, the capital city of Ukraine was considered the primary objective of the Russians. The capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. But now, with the successful defense of Kyiv, Russia seems to have moved the goalposts. Apparently, according to a briefing by Russian defense officials a few days back, Kyiv was never the primary objective; just a way of keeping Ukrainian troops tied down and away from the eastern front. However, Ukrainian officials are wary of recent Russian statements and say that it is too early to dismiss the danger to Kyiv. Residents of Kyiv are in a lighter mood although the air raid sirens are still blaring through the night and missile attacks continue.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, continues to experience Russian shelling with Grad and Uragan missile launch systems. The city is holding out and still has open supply lines to the west.

Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. It now appears unlikely that the Russians will take this city. The Ukrainian forces have been conducting limited counterattacks around the city.

Situation Maps. War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

General Information

Negotiations. The talks are continuing. On Saturday Turkish President Recep Erdogan claimed that Ukraine and Russia were nearing consensus on four of Russia’s demands. Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the status of the Russian language are two key points of the negotiations. More talks will take place on Tuesday (Mar 29) in Istanbul, Turkey.

Chornobyl – A Constant Worry. When the Russians attacked and took control of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine there was a concern that a radiative leak could occur. Thus far, that has not happened. However, there are some worries about radioactive materials that may fall into the wrong hands. “Dirty bomb ingredients go missing from Chornobyl monitoring lab”, Science.org, March 25, 2022.

IO and Cyber

Chinese Disinformation. Beijing has amplified Russian conspiracy theories to spread disinformation about the war in Ukraine to a global audience. It has been parroting the Kremlin’s talking points to include the need to conduct a “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. “Chinese Disinformation Seeks to Support Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”, The Soufan Center IntelBrief, March 28, 2022.

‘Conversational Receptiveness’. Some Harvard University colleagues are reaching out to the Russians about Putin’s War. Using a crowd-sourcing method of sending emails to Russians, they hope to educate Russians about the war – providing information not available in their government controlled media. The approach used by www.mail2ru.org encompasses the lessons of research on receptiveness to opposing views. “Blending technology with psychology to engage Russian people on the Ukraine war”, Harvard Kennedy School, March 22, 2022.

World Response

Biden’s Visit to Europe. The U.S. president made a decent display of leadership during the visit to NATO, European organizations (G7), and then to Poland last week. He has his detractors, of course, who will point out various gaffes and slips of the tongue. But overall, he seemed to say what Europe needed and wanted to hear. A speech in Warsaw, Poland on Friday (Mar 26) caught the attention of the world when he said “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” The president of France was not thrilled with those words – he is currently working with Putin to bring an end to the conflict.

“A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never erase a people’s love for liberty. Brutality will never grind down their will to be free. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

U.S. Forces in Europe. Currently the United States has about 90,000 troops in Europe, many of them positioned in Eastern Europe. There are discussions on the need to send more troops on a temporary basis to shore up NATO’s eastern flank. “Pentagon reconsidering troop levels in Europe amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”, Military Times, March 25, 2022.

German Military Aid. A shipment of 1,500 “Strela” anti-aircraft missiles and some MG3 machine guns arrived in Ukraine on March 25, according to the German Press Agency. Food, medical supplies, and 50 medical transport vehicles were also provided.

Norway-Russian Border. A 200 kilometer long border shared by two countries is a possible flashpoint in this new Cold War 2.0 era. The Kola Peninsula is a strategic area of the world for Russia. Russia’s fleet of ballistic missile submarines pass by the North Cape to head to their Atlantic Ocean patrols. Despite the possibility of conflict, tensions along the border remain low. This is in part, due to a direct line of communication between the Norwegian Joint Headquarters near Bodo and Russia’s Northern Fleet in Severomorsk. (The Barents Observer, Mar 21, 2022).

Informal Military Equipment Shipments. Citizens across Europe are augmenting the supply of military and other equipment heading to Ukraine. Some are with non-profit groups that have been established in past years and others are with newly-formed volunteer groups. Read more: “Inside the secret transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers”, Stars and Stripes, March 18, 2022.

Belarusian Volunteer Battalion. A lot of foreign fighters have joined the Ukrainian military to take part in the defense of that country. Some have come from the country located to the north of Ukraine and allied with Russia – calling themselves the Belarusian Volunteer Battalion. (The Kyiv Independent, Twitter, Mar 26, 2022).

Video – Spirit of America. Jim Hake, the founder and CEO of the Spirit of America, talks about the work his group is doing to assist members of Ukraine’s military. “Jim Hake on Supporting Ukraine’s Military”, Washington Journal, C-Span, March 27, 2022.

GSMSG. A U.S. volunteer group, many who are Special Forces veterans, is now operating in Ukraine. Dr. Aaron Epstein, the founder of GSMSG, and 10 other members of the organization are now on the ground in Ukraine providing training in emergency medical services. The Global Surgical and Medical Support Group was founded in 2015. It is a non-profit organization made up of more than 1,500 volunteers. Recently it has been focused on training Ukrainians on being able to handle combat injuries. GSMSG has also translated the US Army’s Tactical Combat Casualty Care course into Ukrainian and it has been viewed by over 20,000 viewers online. The organization has been utilizing the U.S. Army Special Forces model of developing host nation capabilities. “US special ops veterans, medical professionals training Ukrainian soldiers, civilians in combat care”, Fox News, March 27, 2022.

Commentary

How to Defeat Russia. An Australian special forces veteran, Adrian McKenzie, expresses his frustration in not being able to help but then proposes how the Ukrainians (and the west can defeat Russia). “Full-spectrum warfare and Russia’s path to defeat”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 28, 2022.

Europe’s ‘Hot Peace’ is now ‘Cold War 2.0’. Graeme Dobell explores the consequences of Putin’s War and how it has drastically changed international relations not only in Europe but in Asia as well. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine killed Europe’s hot peace”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 28, 2022.

Ukraine Invasion – Could Have Been Prevented. The president of Latvia argues that if NATO had reacted more strongly in 2008 to the Russian invasion against Georgia and the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow would not have troops threatening Kyiv today. He says the West has been naïve about Putin. Latvia suffered for over 50 years under rule by the Soviet Union before getting its independence. (USNI News, Mar 25, 2022).

Who Is Putin? John Mac Ghlionn provides us with his perspective on the Russian president. “The Misdiagnosis of Vladimir Putin”, Small Wars Journal, March 27, 2022.

Putin’s Dream Evaporates. The attempt by the Russian president to reverse the course of history and re-establish the Russian empire – returning to the days of glory of the Soviet Union are dashed. His ‘three-day war’ is now into its second month. Some reports (NATO officials and Ukraine MoD) say Russia has lost more soldiers in one month than almost ten years during the Afghanistan conflict. “The number that puts Vladimir Putin at risk”, by Peter Bergen, CNN, March 27, 2022.

Upcoming Events

Online Event – Ukraine: The Humanitarian Catastrophe. Tuesday, March 29. A massive humanitarian crisis threatens millions of lives. A hobbled health care system and lack of heat, water, electricity, and food are compounding the ravages of a raging conflict in Ukraine. Watch a 30-min presentation on the scope of the problem and what can be done. Presented by the Harvard University Humanitarian Initiative, YouTube. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/event/ukraine-the-humanitarian-catastrophe/

Maps and Other Resources

Maps of Ukraine
https://www.national-security.info/ukraine/maps.html

Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.

Russian EW Capabilities. “Rah, Rah, Rash Putin?”, Armada International, March 2, 2022.

Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html