On March 23, 2019 the Pentagon announced the physical defeat of the Daesh caliphate in Syria. Over 110,000 square miles were liberated and 7.7 million people freed from Daesh oppression. The Syrian Democratic Front was assisted by U.S. airpower, ISR, and special operations forces in its defeat of the Islamic State fighters. The SDF had finally captured Baghouz – the last Islamic State physical enclave in Syria.

The Special Operations Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (SOJTF-OIR) published this story below on March 18, 2020 summarizing the rise and fall of the Daesh in Iraq and Syria. The article details the final battle for the last ISIS enclave of Baghouz where the SDF defeated the ISIS fighters in their last piece of physical terrain.

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“At the height of their power, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, now referred to as Daesh, operated in 18 different countries and had an annual budget of $1 billion with an estimated 30,000 members. They conducted ground attacks on both government forces and any other force that opposed them. Their goal: to establish a so-called caliphate in the region.

On Aug. 7th, 2014, the U.S.-led coalition launched airstrikes against Daesh. On March 23rd, 2019, the Pentagon announced the physical defeat of the Daesh caliphate in Syria. Over 110,000 square miles were liberated. Approximately 7.7 million people were freed from Daesh oppression. In Baghouz, Syria, where the final battle took place, a yellow flag was flown atop a building by U.S.-backed Syrian forces as they celebrated their victory over Daesh.

Founded in 1999 under the name Jamāʻat al-Tawḥīd wa-al-Jihād and changing to Islamic State of Iraq in 2006, and with an allegiance to al-Qaeda, the oppressive presence of Daesh in the region grew once Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi came to power in 2010. Al-Baghdadi became involved with Daesh while detained in Camp Bucca in the early 2000’s. When released from detainment, he quickly rose in prominence by being directly involved in the violent atrocities conducted by Daesh.

Throughout the next several years with al-Baghdadi as head, Daesh seized control of several major cities in Iraq. Kidnappings, mass murder, and extortion were common crimes committed by Daesh members. By declaring the creation of a so-called caliphate, Daesh gave al-Baghdadi self-proclaimed authority over the Muslims of the world. Their declaration as a caliphate was criticized and disputed by Middle Eastern governments. They were officially declared a terrorist organization by both Iraq and Syria, along with many other nations of the world.

Coalition troops were sent into Iraq to support the defeat of Daesh. In October of 2014, this combined effort was given the name Operation Inherent Resolve. Along with Iraqi and Syrian forces, over 30 countries combined together for the sole mission of defeating Daesh. The Combined Joint Task Force- Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) worked with partner forces to free the nearly 8 million people under the control of Daesh.

By mid-2015, Kurdish fighters expelled Daesh out of towns in Syria and reclaimed military bases that had fallen under Daesh control. In late 2015, Iraqi forces took control of Ramadi from Daesh and then Fallujah just six months later. After several years of combined assaults, Daesh was quickly losing control of central Iraq.

Mosul was retaken from Daesh control toward the end of 2016. Mosul was considered by Daesh as their capital city in the two years since it fell under their control. By early 2017, Daesh had lost all control of central Iraq. At the end of July 2017, it was reported that Daesh had lost an estimated 73% of the territory they had once controlled in Iraq. By the end of the year, the Iraqi Army announced all of Iraq had been liberated and their people freed from Daesh oppression.

On March 23rd, 2019, the Syrian Democratic Forces announced that Daesh had lost its final stronghold in Syria, bringing an end to their so-called caliphate. On Oct. 26th, 2019, during a raid conducted by U.S. forces, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in Northwest Syria.

CJTF-OIR continues its pursuit of Daesh remnants to this day. The remains still linger, but with few resources and the inability to project power to the same degree as they did in 2012, they have very little influence in the region. The continued training of partner forces within the scope of the Defeat Daesh mission is now the focus of Operation Inherent Resolve, along with preventing Daesh from re-emerging in the region and recruiting members to fight for them once again.

Iraq is working hard to establish a stable, unified government. After being devastated by the threat of Daesh, the Iraqi people are primed and ready for this transition, moving closer to being a free and sovereign nation withstanding against any third-party interference. Its military is ready to take a more active role in the safety and security of Iraq, and demonstrate its ability to protect the people and interests of Iraq.

The last of Daesh’s territory in Syria crumbled at the battle of Baghouz. The SDF were the critical land force in this offensive and through their significant sacrifice eliminated the last territorial stronghold held by Daesh. By taking a disciplined, incremental approach to the battle the SDF were able to spare the large civilian population that Daesh fighters used as human shields in the densely populated area. The tactical effectiveness of their approach mixed with the fair treatment of civilians showed the SDF to be an honorable and powerful fighting force.

After over a month of fighting, The SDF declared final victory over Daesh on March 23, 2019, marking the end of Daesh controlled territory in Syria. Their legacy: millions of people have been liberated from Daesh’s barbaric cruelty and fear, and over 900 Daesh fighters surrendering by the end of the battle.

In the last year, the role of the Coalition has been to work alongside partner forces in Iraq and Syria in preventing the remnants of Daesh from returning to power, and to keep the extremist ideologies of Daesh suppressed. The destruction of Daesh provides partners the space and time to recover from the physical and emotional damage that has been left behind in their wake.

The lessons of the rise and fall of Daesh have shown the international community the need to remain vigilant and prepared, to swiftly respond to any threat by third-party actors or violent extremist organizations. The fortitude of the Iraqi and Syrian people and the continued Coalition support of our partner forces, what was once darkened by Daesh, is rejuvenated with the aspirations of a free people.”

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The above article is from “The Defeat of Daesh: One Year Later”, Special Operations Joint Task force – Operation Inherent Resolve (SOJTF-OIR), by Specialist Brian Redmer, March 18, 2020.
https://www.dvidshub.net/news/365422/defeat-daesh-one-year-later-nemabuna-reva-dais-salek-pase

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Top Photo: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) provide security for a Coalition mortar crew providing fires support to SDF against ISIS locations in Operation Round Up taking place in the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) in Syria. (photo by SSG Timothy Koster, CJTF-OIR, May 13, 2018).

Once again the Kurds are cast aside. This is nothing new. Over the span of the past 100 years they have been used as proxy forces and then kicked to the side of the curb once their usefulness has run its course. The United States decision to abandon the Syrian Kurds is yet once more instance of history repeating itself.

On Thursday, December 19, 2018, President Trump declared that the fight against the Islamic State in Syria was over and that we had ‘won’. He announced the immediate withdrawal of the U.S. troops and diplomatic personnel in northeastern Syria that is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF).

The biggest loser in this latest Trump decision are the Syrian Kurds. The SDF – with some Arab but mostly Kurdish fighters – have been instrumental in the degradation of the Islamic State in Syria. Other losers – in the long run – will be the Syrian people who will continue to suffer the abuses of the Assad regime, Iran proxy forces, and Hezbollah. The United States loses bargaining position and the ability to influence events in Syria and in the Middle East region.

The big winners in this debacle are the Assad regime, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and IS. It will be interesting to see how all this shakes out over the next few years. Turkey certainly will do everything it can to marginalize and / or destroy the Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria. The Kurds – realizing now the mistake of trusting the United States – will likely come to an accommodation with the Assad regime. That would solidify the northeastern region of Syria for Assad. Then again – Assad and the Turks could come to an arrangement that would decimate the Kurdish enclave.

The 5th Special Forces along with many supporting U.S. military elements spent a lot of time and energy getting the SDF established, equipped, and trained to fight the Islamic State in Syria. Certainly there has to be some angst at Fort Campbell about the future of the Syrian Kurds. The abandonment of the Syrian Kurds is a tragic error on the part of the United States. And once again the Kurds realize that they have no friends but the mountains.

By David M. Witty

Major General Fadhil Barwari, commander of the 1^st Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) Brigade, Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (CTS), was a central figure in the Iraqi ethos in the struggle against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and more importantly, a much-needed symbol in bridging ethnic and sectarian divides in Iraq. [1]

Barwari died, at age 52, in the Kurdistan Region capital of Erbil. He was born in 1966 in Dohuk (located in northern Iraq not far from the Turkish border).

A Kurd and former member of the Peshmerga [2], he was a part of ISOF since its inception in 2003.  Extremely active in social media, Barwari was outspoken in emphasizing the non-sectarian and non-ethnic nature of ISOF and CTS, which he came to personify as a high-ranking Kurdish officer serving in the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) after 2014, when many Kurds left to join the Peshmerga.

Barwari participated in almost all the major battles against ISIS and was immensely popular in Iraq; during the height of the anti-ISIS campaign, his image was everywhere on the internet. Always a public figure, before the rise of ISIS in 2014, he was often misidentified in the Iraqi press as the overall commander of the CTS instead of as the commander of the 1st ISOF Brigade. His brigade was the oldest and most proficient of the three ISOF brigades in CTS and had a reputation for providing care for civilians and avoiding civilian casualties. The 1st ISOF Brigade was the spearhead force of CTS, containing its most elite units, and CTS as a whole is largely credited as the primary force Iraq depended on to liberate urban areas from ISIS.

Barwari, never without a cigarette, had an easy-going nature, was very pro-US, and was considered extremely easy to work with by US advisors and trainers. He maintained close relationships with senior US special operations forces (SOF) leaders throughout the years, and he repeatedly emphasized his close U.S. ties.

MG Barwari was not without controversy. He was largely blamed for the fall of Ramadi to ISIS in May 2015, where he commanded ISOF. In reality, ISOF was the only ISF unit in Ramadi offering significant resistance to ISIS, and after other ISF retreated from the city, Barwari was force to withdraw to prevent his unit from being cut off and destroyed. In 2017, two former U.S. defense contractors in testimony to a U.S. federal court accused Barwari of having paid them hundreds of thousands of dollars in kickbacks as part of a U.S. defense contract to rent land at an extremely inflated cost that Barwari owned near the Baghdad International Airport. [3]

Following his death from a heart attack in September 2018, mourning gatherings for him occurred in many locations in Iraq.  The gathering in Baghdad was attended by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi. Iraq has lost a central icon that made Iraqis proud of the unity of their nation as a place where all sectarian groups and ethnicities can live and work together to achieve a common purpose.

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Footnotes:

[1] For more info read a 45-page paper on the CTS. The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service, Brookings Institution, by David Witty, 2015. See also “The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service: From the War on ISIS to the Future”, Iraq in Context, 2018,
https://www.iraqincontext.com/home/author/David-M.-Witty

[2] The Peshmerga are the military forces of the federal region of Iraqi Kurdistan. Formally the Peshmerga are under the command of the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, much of this military organization is affiliated with two regional political parties – The Democratic Party of Kurdistan and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peshmerga

[3] Rachel Weiner, “Iraqi General Helped Cheat U.S. Government Contractors Involved in Scheme Say . . . .,” Stars and Stripes, Nov. 28, 2018, https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/iraqi-general-helped-cheat-us-government-contractors-involved-in-scheme-say-1.499861

Video:

Major General Fadhil Jalil Barwari is interviewed by TRT World (Turkey), published online on December 5, 2016 (7 mins).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jhYMs7-RfE

Photo: MG Fadhil Barwari, CJTF-OIR Twitter, September 22, 2018.

Author: David M. Witty, a retired U.S. special forces colonel and adjunct professor at Norwich University. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidMWitty1

]]> 8397 https://sof.news/update/20180319/ Mon, 19 Mar 2018 05:00:45 +0000 http://www.sof.news/?p=5359 SOF News Update 20180319 – Kurds fighting Turkish forces (not ISIS), HH-60 crash in Iraq, building coalitions, 4th Recon Bn Cdr dies, USMC seeks RIAB for PSYOP, NATO’s annual report, ‘7 Days in Entebbe’, Singapore’s combat divers, SF field kitchen [...]]]>

SOF News Update 20180319 – Kurds fighting Turkish forces (not ISIS), HH-60 crash in Iraq, building coalitions, 4th Recon Bn Cdr dies, USMC seeks RIAB for PSYOP, NATO’s annual report, ‘7 Days in Entebbe’, Singapore’s combat divers, SF field kitchen in Alaska, Lockheed Martin training for AFSOC, USASOC updating its chopper fleet, ‘Prospect Theory’ and COIN, Petraeus on Iraq War, 19th SFG valor awards, USS Colorado, and more.

Kurds Fighting Turkish Incursion. Syrian Kurds, who were busy applying the finishing touches to an offensive against ISIS in Syria, are being pulled away from that fight. Once the Turkish military entered Kurd-controlled areas of northwest Syria the Kurds focus shifted. This two-month old offensive by Turkey has pulled at least 1,000 Kurdish fighters from the ISIS battle. Read more in “The US could finish off ISIS if Turkey would stop fighting the Kurds, Pentagon say”, Washington Examiner, March 15, 2018.

HH-60 Crash in Iraq. Central Command has announced on March 16th that all personnel aboard a U.S. Air Force HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopter that crash on Thursday, March 15th have been killed. An accompanying U.S. helicopter immediately reported the crash and a QRF security the scene. Read more about the crash of the HH-60 helicopter in western Iraq.

4th Recon Bn Cdr Dies. A reserve reconnaissance commander was found dead in his California home earlier this month. The commanding officer of the 4th Reconnaissance Battalion based in San Antonio died on March 11th. LE officials have ruled the death a suicide. (Marine Corps Times, Mar 15, 2018).

USASOC Updating Chopper Fleet. The US Army is going to replace some of its SOF MH-47s with newer models. (Janes.com, Mar 14, 2018).

NATO’s Annual Report. The Secretary General’s Annual Report 2017 is now available online. Posted on March 15th it is about 120 pages. Not a lot of information about special operations but a good read in general about what NATO is doing in Europe and around the world.
www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_152797.htm

“Prospect Theory” and COIN. Sidharth Kaushal, a doctoral candidate in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, writes about the application of “Prospect Theory” to counterinsurgency operations. Perhaps We Can Eat Soup With a Knife: Prospect Theory and the Use of Conventional Military Strategies in Counterinsurgency Operations, Small Wars Journal, March 2018.

Retired SEAL Writes on ‘Employee Engagement’. Brent Gleeson, a motivational leadership speaker (and more), writes What We Can Learn About Employee Engagement from the Navy SEALs, Forbes.com, March 16, 2018.

USS Colorado – SOF Capable. The Navy’s newest submarine has special features to support special operations forces – including a reconfigurable torpedo room which can accommodate a large number of personnel and all their equipment for prolonged deployments and future off-board payloads. Read USS Colorado Commissioned, Maritime Executive, March 17, 2018.

Singapore’s Combat Divers. The Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) combat diver training lasts five months. It ends in a ‘hell week’ and then the trainees can become elite frogmen in the Naval Diving Unit. Read “SAF’s combat diver course pushes even the fittest and strongest to breaking point”, The Strait Times, March 15, 2018.

19th SFG Valor Awards. Soldiers from the 19th Special Forces Group were honored for their valor during a 2017 deployment to Afghanistan. (The Seattle Times, Mar 17, 2018).

Lockheed Martin Training for AFSOC. The USAF awarded a contract to provide training support services for AFSOC. The contract includes support to the AF SOF schoolhouse and will last for several years. The Air Commando Training and Support (ACTS) contract has a overall value of over $200 million. (Florida Trend, Mar 16, 2018).

Review of ‘7 Days in Entebbe’. Katie Walsh of the Los Angeles Times reviews (Mar 15, 2018) a movie about the plane hijacking that occurred in June 1976 when two German and two Palestinian terrorists hijacked an Air France flight from Tel Aviv to Paris and directed it to Entebbe, Uganda. As we all know – Israeli commandos launched a successful rescue of the passengers.

Video – SF Field Kitchen in Alaska. Watch a 12-minute long video of a Special Forces field kitchen set up during the Arctic Edge field exercise in Alaska. The cooks are from the 19th Special Forces unit of the Colorado Army National Guard. These cooks are part of the shaft that supports the pointy end of the spear. Watch Colorado SF Kitchen in Arctic Training, DVIDS, March 1, 2018.

Petraeus on Iraq War (2003-2011). Jeff Schogol interviews retired a general most closely associates with the long war in Iraq. We Asked Gen. Petreaus Whether the Iraq War Was Really Worth It. Here’s What He Said, Task & Purpose, March 16, 2018.

Building Coalitions. Mike Nelson, a Special Forces officer, writes a commentary on how the U.S. should take steps to build regional militaries to confront aggressive regional actors that challenge U.S. interests. Read “Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario: Building Coalitions Left of Boom”, War on the Rocks, March 16, 2018.

USMC Seeks RIAB for PSYOP. The Marines want a ‘radio in a box’ capability to enhance their ability to conduct information warfare. The hope is that a commercial off-the-shelf FM broadcast radio kit with FM band radio acquisition and equipment that can conduct live broadcast. Hmmm. Sounds very familiar to the radio in a box capability that was once deployed to Afghanistan. Read “Marines look to beef psychological ops with a radio station in a box”, Marine Corps Times, March 15, 2018.

SOF News Update 20180312 – 2003 JSOC raid into Iraq, intel in corporate world, some great SF photos, USSOCOM and ‘hard problems’, Britain’s WWII GW, conflict in Mali, Kurds shifting focus to invading Turkish forces, MQ-1 Predator to retire, 10th SFGA dietitian, Green Berets and their weapons, ‘own the night’, SERE, early SF history, USAF Reserve CSAR, and more.

Podcast – 2003 JSOC raid in Iraq. Modern War Institute’s The Spear presents a 30-minute podcast on a special operations mission into Iraq. Col. Phil Ryan, the commander of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment tells the story. In 2003, Ryan was a pilot in the unit when it entered Iraq at the very beginning of the invasion of Iraq. Listen to “Podcast: The Spear – a 2003 Helicopter Mission Deep into Iraq”, Modern War Institute at West Point, March 7, 2018.

Solving ‘Hard Problems’ for USSOCOM. The Special Operations Forces Acquisition, Technology & Logistics (SOF AT&L) organization within the U.S. Special Operations Command is seeking assistance to solve ‘hard problems’ in areas that are of critical importance to the success of mission accomplishment. These areas are small unit dominance, mission assured communications, and signature management. Read more about SOF Hard Problems.

Green Berets and Their Weapons. There are several military occupational specialities (MOS) on a Special Forces Operational Detachment Alpha (SFODA). Two members of the team are ‘weapons men’. These guys have the most fun. See “Watch Green Berets demonstrate a lot of cool firepower”, We Are the Mighty, March 8, 2018.

MQ-1 Predator Has Seen Its Time. The Air Force is phasing out the famed Predator UAV. Read more by Joe Chapa, a major in the U.S. Air Force. Read “The Sunset of the Predator: Reflections on the End of an Era”, War on the Rocks, March 9, 2018.

SERE: “. . . the biggest mental challenge . . .” Tom McCollum left the 82nd to go through Special Forces training. Then he hit SERE training. (Fayetteville Observer, Mar 11, 2018).

Britain’s WWII Guerrilla Warfare History. Historian Giles Milton is interviewed about his book Churchill’s Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. Churchill recognized the changing nature of war and allowed a team of independent-minded operatives to operate in the new environment. Read “The Secret History of Britain’s WWII Guerrilla Warfare”, Military.com, March 8, 2018.

USAF Reserve CSAR Units Feeling the Pinch. The burgeoning economy and increase in air travel are prompting the commercial airlines to offer very attractive packages to active duty Air Force navigators and pilots. The USAF reserve units are also being affected. Read “Reserve Rescue Aircrews to Air Force: Don’t Forget About Us”, Military.com, March 10, 2018.

Early SF History. I was at a fundraising event this past Saturday night talking with a SSG from Special Forces who was manning a static display. One of my friends with me had served with the 77th SFG in the early days. The SSG had no clue there was a 77th and had no real idea on the history of Special Forces beyond what has happened since 9/11. I spent about 10 minutes bringing him up to date. By coincidence I bumped into this article on the Internet! “Becoming Special Forces”, Paraglide, March 8, 2018.

ANASOC’s Team Leader Course. The Afghan National Army Special Operations Command conducts a six-week long Noncommissioned Officer’s Team Leader Course near Kabul. Read more (DVIDS, Feb 22, 2018).

‘Own the Night’ – Not as Much Now. As the U.S. continues to provide night vision goggles to our ‘partnered forces’ (in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere) the insurgents they fight will gradually attain night vision capability. One way this happens is when the insurgent capture the equipment in raids and ambushes. Another avenue is the corruption within these ‘partnered forces’ when the equipment is sold to insurgents. Still yet another way of attaining night vision capability is to buy commercial off-the-shelf night vision goggles. Read more in “How much longer will US and partner forces ‘own the night’ in combat?”, Army Times, March 11, 2018.

Conflict in Mali. The Tuareg militias are clashing with the Islamic State-loyal militants in northern Mali. The analysts at Threat Matrix of the Long War Journal provide info on the clashes. (March 8, 2018).

10th SFGA Dietitian. Kelsey Bailey, a Tactical Performance Dietitian for the Special Forces Group based in Colorado, says a good diet starts off at the grocery store. Read “Go Further With Food – Fort Carson Dietitian Leads Commissary Tour”, DVIDS, February 28, 2018.

Kurds of Syria Shifting Focus. Kurdish forces are shifting their focus to the Turkish invasion of Kurd-held areas of Syria. This means that the Kurds attention on the Islamic State fighters has lessened in order to confront the more immediate and severe threat from the north. One would think that the SF ODAs in Syria would get an opportunity to hit the weights; but I am sure the Bn CSM / S3 has them busy with other duties and missions. Read “Turkey’s war on Kurds unsettles fronts in northern Syria”, AP, March 9, 2018.

Afghan SOF Take Losses in Battle. At least 10 Afghan commandos (some news reports say more) were killed in an ambush in Farah province on March 9th. “Afghan special forces hit hard in deadly Taliban ambush”, FDD’s Long War Journal, March 10, 2018.

Afghan SOF Staying Busy. Maj Anthony Mayne, of NSOCC-A, provides a roll-up of recent Afghan SOF operations around Afghanistan. (DVIDS, Mar 9, 2018).

Intelligence in the Corporate World. The world of intelligence is not just for three-letter agencies of the U.S. government. Smart application of basic intelligence principles can enable business corporations to understand and adapt to a complex world of dynamically evolving threats and constantly evolving opportunities. Read “A CEO’s Brief Guide to Intelligence: Not Just for Three-Letter Agencies”, The Cipher Brief, March 9, 2018.

SF Photos – and Motivation for SFQC. View 30 great photographs from the 1st Special Forces Command Facebook and read some motivational passages targeting the candidate for Special Forces training. (The Chive, March 8, 2018).

SOF News Update 20171201 – Standards at SFQC slipping, Jaded Thunder exercise, former Navy SEAL running for Congress, abandoning the Kurds, STS in Faryab province, innish Winter War anniversary, U.S. advisors to accompany lower level Afghan units, UAE in Yemen, Niger approves armed drones, U.S. reps visit Tampa, Army cancels ICSR, Afghan SOF to double, AFCEA president comments on SOF, law aspects of hybrid war explained, female free diver trains up German SOF, and more.

Standards at SFQC Slipping? An anonymous email sent by an NCO working at Fort Bragg, NC has caused a great deal of discontent in the Special Forces community. The email, posted on the website of SOFREP, alleges that training standards have dropped significantly with in the Special Forces training pipeline. MG Kurt Sonnetag, the commander of the Special Warfare Center and School (SWCS), issued a quick response denying the contents of the email. Read more in “Army probes criticism of Green Beret training”, AP News,  November 30, 2017.

Jaded Thunder Exercise. The Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) brings in various aerial assets to teach its operators how to apply their deadly capabilities with finesse. Read “Jaded Thunder Exercise Trains Elite Troops to Call in Almost Any Sort of Fire Support”, The War Zone, November 30, 2017.

Abandoning the Kurds? The Kurds of Iraq and Syria proved themselves to be very dependable allies in the fight against the Islamic State. Now that the territorial expanse of ISIS has diminished what now? Will the U.S. stop supporting the Kurds? Turkey would surely welcome that prospect. Read more in “Has Trump Ditched the Kurdish Fighters Who Defeated ISIS? Maybe Not”,  The Daily Beast, November 28, 2017.

U.S. House Reps visit Tampa. Members of the U.S. House of Representatives recently visited USSOCOM to learn about the command. (USSOCOM, Nov 2017).

Female Free Diver Trains up German SOF. A free diver champion has spent a considerable amount of time training up German special operations forces. (Deeper Blue, Nov 29, 2017).

Niger Approves Armed Drones. The government of Niger has given the go-ahead to the U.S. DoD to fly armed RPA within their borders. The drones will initially fly out of a Nigerien air base in Niamey and then, in time, from an air base in Agadez. The armed drones will likely provide a more responsive air support element to SOF teams operating in contested rural areas of Niger. (Reported by the NYTs).

Navy Lawyer Explains ‘Hybrid Warfare’. As only a lawyer can, Douglass Cantrell explains the use of hybrid warfare within the context of the use of force under international law. Read “Hybrid Warfare: Aggression and Coercion in the Gray Zone”, American Society of International Law, November 29, 2017.

Afghan SOF to Double. The Afghan government plans to double the size of it’s special operations forces. Afghanistan has SOF units within its Ministry of Defense as well as its Ministry of Interior. (Khaama Press, Dec 1, 2017).

Finnish Winter War Anniversary. On November 30, 1939 the Soviet Union invaded the small nation of Finland. The supposed quick victory by the Russians turned out to be a long grind. Allegedly the Finns would joke about the huge Russian invading armies – “They are so many, and our country is so small, where shall we find the room to bury them all?”.

UAE in Yemen. The United Arab Emirates have been playing a key role in stabilizing the Middle East. They are deeply involved in Somalia, Yemen, and other locations. In addition, they have been constant allies of the United States in Afghanistan – providing SOF units to work with U.S. SOF. An article by Bennett Seftel – deputy director of analysis at The Cipher Brief“UAE’s Share of the Task Fighting al Qaeda in Yemen” – provides an update about the UAE in Yemen. Read , The Cipher Brief, November 30, 2017.

Army Cancels ICSR. The Army’s Interim Combat Service Rifle is dead. The short-lived program has had its funds transferred to the Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW). Read more in “Army Cancels Short-Term Rifle Replacement Program”, Army Times, November 30, 2017.

President of AFCEA Comments on SOF. The president of the AFCEA, Lt. Gen. Robert M. Shea, USMC (Ret.), provides insight on the nature of SOF in today’s troubled times. Read “President’s Commentary: SOF Carries a Big Stick”, Signal, December 1, 2017.

STS in Faryab Province. Members of the AFSOC special tactics recently visited Faryab province, Afghanistan to discuss plans to increase airpower at airfields in the remote province. They conducted multiple airfield surveys along with Afghan counterparts. (USAF, Nov 30, 2017).

Advisors at Lower Echelons in Afghan Fight. U.S. General John Nicholson says that more U.S. troops will be deployed to lower level Afghan units as advisors. That will likely increase casualties. (NPR, Nov 28, 2017).

Nicholson Praises MoI’s NMUs. General John Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support in Afghanistan, offered praise for the Afghan police National Mission Units (NMUs) of the General Command Police Special Units (GCPSU). (Tolo News, Nov 30, 2017).

Former Navy SEAL is running for Congress. Dan Crenshaw of Texas is running for Congress. He fought in Afghanistan, Iraq, and deployed around the world. Now he wants to fight in the halls of Congress.
www.facebook.com/CrenshawforCongress/

Update Kirkuk – It appears that the Kirkuk offensive conducted by the security forces of the Government of Iraq (GoI) on Sunday and Monday (October 15-16) was more a coordinated movement into areas held by Kurdish forces and not so much a combat operation. Before or as the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) moved into strategic military, government, and economic locations the Kurdish Peshmerga moved out. There were some clashes that caused some fatalities but they were minimal – when compared to what could have transpired.

Importance of Kirkuk. The city of Kirkuk, located in the province of Kirkuk, has had a mixed ethnic composition for many years. Looking back into history Kirkuk has always been on the fault line between the Kurds and Arabs. Kirkuk is contested for a number of reasons – it has a mixed population (Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and Christians) [1], is the location of significant oil fields, and it is an economic center for the region. In addition, there are some important military bases near the city – an army installation and a military air base.

Kirkuk and the Constitution. The status of the city was supposed to be determined by a referendum according to the new constitution that emerged after Saddam Hussein and his government was removed after the U.S. invasion. The referendum was never held and remains a source of discontent for many Kurds.

ISIS Offensive in August 2014. After winning battle after battle against the Iraq army the Islamic State turned its attention to the Kirkuk area (no doubt with the oil fields in mind). As ISIS advanced the Iraqi army fled in disarray. It left behind armored vehicles, artillery, and other weapons and equipment to be captured by ISIS. The Kurds, assisted with U.S. air power, prevented the capture of Kirkuk by ISIS.

Negotiated Withdrawal or Ultimatum? It appears that behind-the-scenes negotiations took place prior to the ISF move into Kirkuk city and the surrounding areas. Some reports say that the negotiations broke down and the Government of Iraq issued an ultimatum. At any rate the Kurds simply decided not to fight. Time will tell as ‘experts’ analyze this event over the next several weeks. Hopefully we will see some statements from the U.S., Government of Iraq (GoI), and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) that clarify the situation.

Themes Emerging. In reading the media reports (across a wide spectrum) there are several ‘stories’ coming out that are attracting attention. These themes include the influence of Iran, escalation of tensions between Shia and Kurds, possible loss of the Kurds as an ally with the ISF in the fight against ISIS, diminishing hopes of independence for the Kurds of Iraq, loss of oil revenue to the Kurds, and the future of Kurdish autonomy within Iraq. A sampling of reporting on these themes is presented below.

Iranian Influence. The big winner in the defeat of ISIS in Iraq will likely be Iran. The United States has simply been outflanked diplomatically by the long-time regional rival to U.S. power in the Gulf region. Certainly Iran is a major player in the current dispute between the GoI and the Kurds. It’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) provides support to the Shia militias (Hashd al-Shaabi) – many who are currently at the gates of Kirkuk. In addition, the Federal Police (historically linked to Iran), are taking part in the Kirkuk occupation.

U.S. – Iran Relations. Iran has been reaping benefits from the war on ISIS. It has consolidated its position in Syria and Iraq. While presumably an ally in the Iraqi fight against ISIS it is at odds with the U.S. in Yemen and Syria. While the U.S. is urging restraint through diplomatic overtures to Tehran President Trump is threatening to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. The Shia may very well be taking the lead (urged on by Iran) to oppose the move towards Kurdish independence and the continued holding of ‘disputed areas in Iraq’ by the Kurds forces.

Shia – Kurd Relations. The Kurds have been known to be a tolerant people towards other ethnic groups. As an oppressed people they have sympathized with the fate of the Shia, Christians, Turkmen, and Yazidi. However, the dyamics between the Shia and Kurds have taken a turn for the worse.

“Racism becoming a dangerous tool in Kurdistan”, by Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute (AEI), October 16, 2017.

“A new war in Iraq, now between Shia Arabs and Kurds”, The Economist, October 16, 2017.

Kurdish Fragmentation. The rival factions within Kurdistan are accusing each other of abandoning Kirkuk. However neither of the groups appeared to have fought the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) incursion into Kirkuk or the outlying strategic military and economic targets. The behind the scenes maneuvering that took place in the days prior to the move by the ISF into Kirkuk will certainly be interesting (if the moves are ever fully revealed). The Democratic Party of Kurdistan (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have long been at odds with each – and their relationship (or lack of) has been a significant factor in being unable to present a unified Kurdish front to the central government. There are reports that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) worked very closely with the ISF to turn over areas to the Baghdad forces. In addition, it seems the PUK is working closely with Iranian officials to enhance its status in the aftermath of this event.

“Baghdad Retakes Kirkuk”, Soufan Group, October 17, 2017.

“Kurdish Dreams of Independence Delayed Once Again”, by Dexter Filkins, The New Yorker, October 16, 2017.

Loss of Oil Revenue. The taking of the oil fields by the central government of Iraq will severely restrict the amount of funds that the KRG will have available to run the region. This is at a time when the central government has sent little in funding to the Kurds for the administration of the region, providing government services, or to maintain the military forces of the Kurds. There are reported to be at least six oil fields in the area and the GoI’s security forces now control at least one of them.

Economic Strangle Hold. The borders of Kurdistan are subject to closure by the governments of Iran and Turkey. International flights into the airports located in Kurdistan have been stopped. For the moment, both nations are working closely with the government of Iraq to ensure the Kurdish referendum for independence held on September 25th does not lead to a declaration of independence by the Kurdish officials.

Fight Against ISIS. The Islamic State has been removed from almost all of the territory it captured in 2014 and 2015. It still remains in isolated pockets throughout Iraq and has areas under its control in the West of Iraq; especially along the Syrian border. ISIS is predicted to adapt its tactics – becoming (once again) an insurgent / terrorist group. Prolonged fighting between the ISF and the Peshmerga will detract from the future counterinsurgency operations that will be conducted against ISIS.

“What’s behind the dangerous escalation of tension between forces fighting ISIS in Iraq”, Stars and Stripes, October 16, 2017.

A Headache for the U.S. The tension between the Kurds and the central government is a headache for the United States. At the same time it is focused on eliminating (as much as that is possible) the ISIS presence in Iraq (and numerous other countries) it is trying to limit the spread of Iranian influence and military activities in the greater Middle East area. The elite Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) that the U.S. has trained, equipped, and advised (with U.S. SOF personnel at the tactical level) is now in Kirkuk in opposition to the Peshmerga.

U.S. Way Ahead? In and effort to de-escalate the tension the U.S. will put pressure on the Kurds to make some concessions in the days and weeks ahead.  It probably has become clear to the inhabitants of Kirkuk that US support for the Kurds is a fragile and probably temporary arrangement. In addition, it will threaten the curtailment of assistance to the Government of Iraq in the fight against ISIS (money, equipment, weapons, trainers, advisors, air support, artillery support, etc.). [2]

Footnotes:

[1] In the 1980s the Iraqi regime conducted an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Iraq – removing Kurds from key areas of the region. In the 1990s Saddam Hussein conducted an ‘Arabization’ of Kirkuk; moving Kurds out of the city and Arabs into the city. This had a significant change in the ethnic composition. In 2003, after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Kurds began returning to their homes. In 2014 the Iraqi army fled in the face of the Islamic State offensive in northern Iraq. The Peshmerga stopped the advance into many of the northern regions of Iraq and retook much of the Kirkuk area back from ISIS.

[2] See “We’re Not Taking Sides, Trump Tells Clashing Kurds, Iraqis”, Defense One, October 16, 2017.

Kirkuk Update – The offensive launched on Sunday, October 15th by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iranian-backed militias continued into Monday. Initial news reports said that some of the oil fields have been seized as well as parts of Kirkuk.

(Information in this article is as of Monday, October 16, 2017)

ISF in Kirkuk. A lot of media reports say that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have entered Kirkuk. Elements of the 9th Division of the Iraqi army, the Federal Police, and the Counterterrorism Services (CTS) are involved in the Kirkuk security operation. In addition, Shia militias – Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) backed by the IRGC – are also taking part in the offensive; although the PMF may not have entered Kirkuk city proper.

Targets Secured. The Government of Iraq has stated that they have secured federal installations and strategic locations in and around the city of Kirkuk and in the province of Kirkuk. The government claims it now controls the K1 Air Base northwest of Kirkuk. In addition, they claim the Baba Gorgor oil field (near the K1 Air Base) is under their full control. Several government buildings in Kirkuk have been occupied by the ISF. Other possible targets that may have been secured include the offices of the North Gas Company (near K1 Air Base) and the Bai Hassan and Khabbaz oil fields.

Fracturing on Kurdish Front. The two rival parties of the Kurdish people are at odds with each other. There are reports of fighting between the PUK and KDP in Kirkuk after the PUK decision to hand over positions to the ISF.

Negotiated Withdrawal? A lot of international pressure is being exerted on the parties in dispute. Certainly the United States is in the lead in trying to negotiate a settlement. It appears that the Kurds agreed to withdraw from some areas of Kirkuk province as well as important military sites – such as the K1 Air Base.

Scale of Fighting. Some reports indicate that up to 100 casualties have resulted from the fighting. Reports vary but some Peshmerga troops fought while others withdrew from positions around Kirkuk. The fighting is less than was expected at the onset of the ISF move into Kirkuk. Some reports attribute the fighting to engagements between Peshmerga and the PMF units. Meanwhile U.S. authorities have minimized the fighting stating that any casualties have been the result of a “misunderstanding”. [1]

Will the Fighting Spread? There are media reports of fighting in other areas of Iraq where Kurdish forces hold disputed territory. Fighting has been reported in Sulamaniya and Diyala provinces. Once again these reports attribute the fighting between Kurds and Shia militia.

Kurds Fleeing? Thousands of Kirkuk residents fled north to safer areas to avoid a possible escalation of the fighting. Many cite the prospect of Shia militias entering the city.

Timing of the Independence Referendum? Some observers will likely look back and conclude that the Kurds scheduled their independence referendum poorly. The Iraqi Security Services have increased their capabilities over the past year as they have taken first Mosul, then Tal Afar, and finally Hawija. The last city is key as it is in the Al-Hawija District of the Kirkuk province. The fight for Hawija was ongoing (now concluded) at the same time that the referendum took place (Sep 25th). So the security forces of the Government of Iraq were fully mobilized to move a few miles east (one hour drive, 66 kms) to Kirkuk. Bad timing!

Government of Iraq Narrative. Part of the Government of Iraq’s narrative is that the operation was necessary to protect the people of Kirkuk and to “protect the unity of the country”. In addition, it cites the presence of PKK terrorists in the province. The government has named the offensive “Operation Impose Security in Kirkuk”.

PKK? The Iraqi government is stating that members of the Kurdish terrorist group are in Kirkuk opposing the ISF. The PKK, or Turkish Kurdistan Worker’s Party, is based in Turkey and has had a long-running conflict with the security forces of Turkey.

U.S. Response?

GoI Airpower? The success on the battlefield against ISIS was due in part to the artillery, air, and ISR support of the United States and its Coalition partners. But even without this international operational assistance the seaonsed Iraqi Security Forces and its Shia militias should be able to handle the Peshmerga if it keeps its objectives minimal. The Iraqi Air Force has steadily improved its capability and its capacity has grown over the past few years – so it should not be discounted if needed in an extended fight with the Kurds.

GoI in Driver’s Seat. The Government of Iraq has a new-found confidence. It’s security forces have attained success on the battlefield against ISIS strongholds. Most of Iraq has been liberated from the Islamic State fighters. The governments of Iran and Turkey are solidly behind Iraq on the Kurdish issue. The U.S. government and most of the international community issued proclamations against the independence referendum. The GoI seems intent to mix negotiations with force in the current dispute with the Kurds.

Possible Outcome? It appears that the Government of Iraq will try to recover the areas not held by the Kurds prior to the summer of 2014. These were the areas that the Iraqi army fled from and that the Islamic State fighters moved into – and that the Peshmerga subsequently fought ISIS and occupied. These disputed areas are in parts of Kirkuk, Diyala, and Ninawa provinces.

Footnotes:

[1] See Coalition Statement on Military Movements Near Kirkuk, Operation Inherent Resolve, October 16, 2017.

References:

Kirkuk – A Contested City in Northern Iraq, SOF News, October 15, 2017.
www.sof.news/iraq/kirkuk/

Kurdish Independence – A Regional Flashpoint, SOF News, October 4, 2017.
www.sof.news/iraq/kurdistan-independence/

Independent Kurdistan – What are the Implications (RAND Paper), SOF News, December 9, 2016.
www.sof.news/iraq/independent-kurdistan-implications/

Kurdistan Update – 20161108, SOF News, November 8, 2016.
www.sof.news/iraq/kurdistan-update/

US Support of Kurds – A Temporary Arrangement?, SOF News, August 31, 2016.
www.sof.news/middle-east/us-support-of-kurds/

Kirkuk is a Contested City and Province. The Iraqi Kurds claim that the city of Kirkuk has traditionally been a part of Kurdistan. The central government of Iraq says otherwise. Kirkuk is important because of its territory as well as oil revenue. Kirkuk is also the name of the province where the city of Kirkuk is located.

Kurdistan. The region referred to as Kurdistan encompasses territory in four different countries – Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria. All four countries are wary of moves toward independence. The Turks have had a long-running conflict with elements of their Kurdish population. The Iranians have stamped out revolts by Kurds in their country over the past several decades. In Syria, the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF) is largely made up of Syrian Kurds and that organization has had huge success in taking territory over from the Islamic State fighters in Syria.

Kirkuk Province. The area of Kirkuk (province, governate, and other names have been used to describe the city and surrounding area) has traditionally been Kurdish with a mix of Arab, Turkman, and other ethnic groups as well. In the 1990s the Iraqi regime, under Saddam Hussein, conducted an “Arabization” of the city and province. After the 2003 invasion Kurds began moving back into the city.

Referendum for Independence. A recent vote was held on September 25th in Iraqi Kurdistan on whether the Kurds should push for independence. The vote was overwhelmingly (90%) in favor of Kurdish independence. It is important to note that the Kurds have not declared independence. The future plans of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) are uncertain. It could be they wanted to hold the referendum in an attempt to seek concessions from the Iraqi government (retaining possession of Kirkuk, the right to send oil to markets, government money for public services, and greater autonomy).

Fighting Breaks Out. At on Sunday, October 15, 2017 it was reported in several media outlets that the Iraqi Security Forces had advanced to positions in south Kirkuk held by Peshmerga forces. Fighting was reported in several locations on the outskirts of Kirkuk involving the use of artillery and tanks.

Regional Aspects. The regional implications of the Kurdish independence movement are significant. Iraq and none of the neighboring countries with a Kurdish population want an independent Kurdish nation on their borders. The possibilities of the independence movement spilling across the borders cannot be discounted. In addition, it upsets the fragile balance of power in the Middle East.

US History with the Kurds. The United States has a unique history with the Kurds of Iraq. Over the past several decades the United States has been engaged in several overt and covert relationships with the Kurdish people of Iraq.

1991 Relief Effort. Most Americans became aware of the Kurds when they saw the humanitarian crisis of the Kurdish people that fled the Iraqi army shortly after the end of the Persian Gulf War unfold on CNN. Days after the end of the Persian Gulf War the Kurds revolted (some say encouraged by the US). The Peshmerga enjoyed initial success but were quickly crushed by Iraqi helicopters and tanks. The Kurdish people, fearing a massacre, fled in the millions to the mountaintop borders of Iran and Turkey in the middle of winter. The United States led an international humanitarian effort called Operation Provide Comfort to relieve the suffering. A protective area and ‘no fly zone’ was set up and maintained until the invasion of Iraq took place in 2003.

OIF and the Kurds. During Operation Iraqi Freedom the Kurds were instrumental in seizing control of areas of northern Iraq. The 10th Special Forces Group linked up with the Peshmerga and tied down several Iraqi division in northern Iraq.

US Assists Kurds in Resisting ISIS. One of the major factors that pushed the U.S. into the current conflict with ISIS in the Middle East was the Islamic State offensive against the Kurds in 2014. Kirkuk, Irbil, and other cities were threatened. US air power and special forces advisors on the ground helped the Peshmerga halt the ISIS offensive in northern Iraq. At the time it seem to many observers that there was no organized resistance to ISIS in Iraq except the Kurds. The Iraqi army had folded and fled to the Baghdad  and Shia areas of Iraq.

US Policy toward Kurd Independence and Future Support. The United States has publicly and officially dismissed the Kurds quest for independence. It maintains that an intact Iraq with the Kurdish, Shia, and Sunni areas remaining part of Iraq is the best solution for the peoples of Iraq and for the stability of the Middle East. While it doesn’t support the independence movement the United States (and other nations) have been deeply involved in assisting the Kurdish forces in the fight against the Islamic State fighters. Equipment, training, and advisors have worked closely with the Kurds since the summer of 2014. However, in light of the current situation – the possibility of a fight between the Kurds and the Iraqi Army – the US support of the Kurds may sharply and quickly diminish.

US Options. This conflict between the central government and the Kurds has put the United States in a difficult position. The US (and other Coalition partners) have special operations forces and conventional forces working along side the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) as well as the Peshmerga. US airpower, ISR, and artillery support has provided significant assistance to the ISF. Perhaps these important assets can provide some leverage. Or do the Iranians simply step in and fill the void?

Possible Targets of Iraqi Military. The oilfields are an obvious target. The Iraqi government will attempt to control the oil fields, denying the oil revenue to the Kurds and using it for the central government. The K1 Air Base (Kaywan) located five miles northwest of Kirkuk is another important target. When the Iraqi Army fled the ISIS fighters it left the air base unoccupied and ISIS moved in. [1] The Peshmerga took the air base from ISIS and have held it for the past three years. It is likely that the civilian airport will be a target as well. The city proper? That remains to be seen.

ISF Units in the Fight. The elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) is reportedly spearheading the offensive and the Popular Mobilization Units (Shia) are operating in the area. In addition, elements of the 9th Division of the Iraqi army and the federal police forces have taken control of part of Kirkuk province. The Kurds have reinforced some areas of the province while moving out (ceding to the government troops) some areas to the south and west of Kirkuk city.

Taking the Eye off The Ball. Unfortunately, this conflict between the Iraqi government and the Kurds has escalated just as the Islamic State was on the ropes. A conflict over Kirkuk will reduce the attention to ISIS and allow it to slip away and reorganize – probably reverting back to being an insurgent / terrorist group once again. [2]

How Does this End? The Peshmerga has a long history of fighting prowness. They clearly halted the ISIS advance in late 2014 and early 2015 into Kurdish areas at a time when the Iraq army completely folded and fled the field of battle. However, the Kurds are not facing the inept Iraq army of 2014. Over the past two years it has become a professional fighting force (well, at least its special forces components that have borne the brunt of the fighting). In addition, the Kurds lack an Air Force, heavy artillery, and international support. Poised on the borders are the Iranians and the Turks – both have moved infantry, artillery, and tanks to the border areas. Add to these outside players the Shia Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) that have significant Iranian support.

Kirkuk is Key. The prize is Kirkuk. The city of Kirkuk is a regional economic center, it has significant oil fields, a major airport, and the K1 Air Base. If the Iraqi government manages to take Kirkuk from the Kurds then the conflict could end there with no further incursion into Kurdish territory. It isn’t likely that the Kurds will give it up without a fight. The risk that the Iraqi government takes is the threat of a long-range insurgency by the Kurds that could take years to end.

Probable Outcome? The Iraqi Security Forces take the regional airport, K1 Air Base, the oil fields, and much of Kirkuk province. The city proper is retained by the Kurds. ISIS catches its breathe and regenerates. The staff at CENTCOM loses a lot of sleep. SF teams put their ‘Warrior – Diplomat’ skills into play.

Footnotes:

[1] The Iraqi 12th Division of the Iraqi Army (over 12,000 soldiers) fled the air base in August 2015 during the northern Iraq offensive of the Islamic State (ISIS).

[2] A host of observers have predicted that ISIS will revert back to an insurgent / terrorist organization after all of its territory has been retaken. The Iraqi government still has a long counterinsurgency fight ahead and it can ill afford to lose the support of one of the more effective fighting formations in the country (Peshmerga).

References: The US Army in Kirkuk: Governance Operations on the Fault Lines of Iraqi Society, 2003-2009, by Peter W. Connors, Combat Studies Institute Press, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, 2011.
www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/OP35.pdf

Kurdistan Independence Referendum. Independence in the Middle East has been an elusive dream for many Kurds. The Kurds of Iraq believe the time has come to pursue the establishment of an independent state for the Kurdish people. The overwhelming majority of Kurds living in northern Iraq voted for independence in a recent referendum held in early October 2017. Over 70% of the eligible voters participated in the referendum with nine out of ten voters backing independence.

Iraqi Government Reaction. The Iraqi central government is not keen on losing a significant portion of its territory. In addition, it does not want to lose the revenue of the large oil reserves of the Kurdish region. The central government of Iraq responded quickly with statements opposing the vote for Kurdistan independence and actions limiting the autonomy of the Kurdish region. International flights were prohibited and some border crossings were taken over by Iraqi security forces.

Possible Military Action. The ability of the Iraqi security forces to take military action against the Kurds is questionable. Although threats of reoccupying the Kurdish areas of Iraq should be taken seriously, it is doubtful military action will be taken to wrest control of the entire Kurdish enclave. There is the possibility that Kirkuk could be the scene of violence. One cannot discount the possibility of the Iranian-back Shiia militias working in conjunction with the ISF to attempt to occupy Kirkuk.

Regional Implications. Outside of Iraq the neighboring powers also expressed their dismay. The nations of Iran, Turkey, and Syria all have significant Kurdish populations and they are worried that an Iraqi Kurdish independence movement will spill over the border into the Kurdish populated areas of their countries. There will be significant regional implications if Iraqi Kurds attain independence.

Regional Reaction. The Iranians have pushed a small number of tanks and artillery to border areas where Iran meets the Kurdish autonomous region. In addition, Iran ordered a fuel embargo stopping international movement of fuel products in or out of Iraqi Kurdistan. International flights are barred from landing at either the Erbil or Sulaymaniya airports and the regional airlines of other countries are complying with that request. Turkey has agreed to deal only with Baghdad on oil exports – putting a severe cramp in the revenue flow of oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey. Lurking in the background is Russia – with a seemingly close working relationship with Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

Is There A Case for Kurdish Independence? The Kurds have a long history, a distinct national identity, common language, shared culture, ethnic identity, and defined geographical location. [1] At the conclusion of World War I an international agreement [2] provided a legal basis for statehood. This was never achieved but the Kurdish people have not forgotten what they almost attained. Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, spells out some criteria that should be considered for the establishment of a new country. He believes that there is a persuasive case for Kurdish independence.

U.S. Support of Kurds. The United States has issued formal statements opposing the Kurdish independence movement. There are some observers of the Middle East who advocate a breakup of the Iraqi state into three separate nations – comprised of Sunni, Shia, and Kurd peoples. The U.S. opposes this construct as well as an independent Kurdish state. As this situation develops – Kurdistan independence – the U.S. will be put into a vexing situation. Despite being staunch U.S. allies in the fight against the Islamic State [3] the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq may find that the U.S. support of the Kurds is a temporary arrangement.

Unique Relationship of U.S. SOF with the Kurds. The Peshmerga have a long history with U.S. Special Forces. In 1991, shortly after the Gulf War, the 10th Special Forces Group deployed to southern Turkey and northern Iraq (Operation Provide Comfort) to set up administer refugee camps and facilitate the movement of Kurds from the Turkish border area back to a safe haven zone inside northern Iraq. Operation Provide Comfort would continue for a number of years with the establishment of a no-fly zone (and continued coordination with U.S. SOF). During the 2003 invasion of Iraq the 10th Special Forces Group linked up with the Peshmerga and conducted an offensive against Iraqi units in northern Iraq.

Viability of a Kurdistan State is Questionable. Kurdistan is a land-locked region. To travel from Kurdistan by air to international destinations you must overfly Iraq (to the south), Iran, Turkey, or Syria. If these four nations refuse overflights then the Kurds would have to move people and goods by ground movement. Once again this movement overland must be allowed by the four countries mentioned above. An independent Kurdistan would find trade with international partners to be heavily dependent on good relations with its neighboring countries.

Compromise in the Future. It is unlikely the international community will rally in support of Kurdistan independence. One way out of the current dispute is a negotiated settlement between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Baghdad central government. The major agenda topics would include how the territory would be allocated (Kirkuk comes to mind), how oil revenues are shared, and how much autonomy an Iraqi Kurdistan would enjoy.

Footnotes:

[1] A number of old maps provide insight into the historical lands of the Kurdish people. These can be viewed at “Atlas of Kurdistan”, Wikimedia Commons Atlas of the World.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Atlas_of_Kurdistan

[2] The Treaty of Sevres was signed on August 10, 1920 that formalized the conclusion of the Ottoman participation in World War I. The agreement took away all the lands of the Ottoman Empire not on the Anatolian Peninsula and provided for a possible Kurdish territory (that did not include Kurds from present-day Syria, Iran, or Iraq). However, the emergence of Mustafa Kemal and of modern day Turkey resulted in the cancellation of a Kurdistan referendum.

[3] In the early fight (2014) against the onslaught by the Islamic State it was the Kurdish Peshmerga that held the line against ISIS while the Iraqi security forces fled and left vast areas of Iraq under ISIS control. U.S. special operations forces (and SOF of other nations) worked closely with the Iraqi Kurds to fend of the Islamic State fighters. Of late, the Kurds in Syria have proven to be very valuable proxy forces for U.S. SOF.