Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world.

Photo / Image: Marine Raiders rehearse advanced military free fall jumps at Camp Lejeune, N.C., Sept. 1, 2021. Military free fall sustainment training is necessary for a Marine special operations team to stay proficient and ready at all times for future operations. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Ethan Green)

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SOF News

Five KIA in MH-60 Crash. Five crew members of an Army special operations helicopter died in a crash in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during an air refueling event on Friday night. The mishap took place off the coast of southeast Cyprus. “5 U.S. Special Operations Forces Killed in Helicopter Crash in Mediterranean”, The New York Times, November 12, 2023. (subscription may be required) See also “US Military Plane Crashes in Mediterranean Training ‘Mishap'”, Voice of America, November 11, 2023. “DOD Identifies Army Soldiers Killed in Helicopter Crash”, U.S. Department of Defense, November 13, 2023.

Pulling TACPs from Army Bases. Bad Idea? An Air Force plan to relocate squadrons of elite close-air support airmen on Army bases, consolidating from eight locations down to just two, is likely to harm military readiness. (Military.com, Nov 7, 2023)

AC-130J’s Big Gun Going Away? The future of the AC-130J’s big gun is once again uncertain as interest in giving the Ghostrider more stand-off strike capabilities grow. “AC-130J Ghostriders Could Lose Their Big 105mm Guns”, The WarZone, November 7, 2023.

Lasers for the AC-130? The future of a laser-armed AC-130J is increasingly uncertain and a broader review of the Ghostrider’s armament package is in progress. “AC-130 Laser Weapon Test Slip Raises Questions About Its Future”, Thew Warzone, November 10, 2023.

Navy’s Leap Frogs. The Leap Frogs, a U.S. Navy Parachute Team, showcase their precision, teamwork, and commitment to excellence in each jump, and are a vital tool in Navy recruiting by landing and immediately interacting with the crowd to offer their unique perspective on Naval Special Warfare. “A Leap of Faith and Excellence: Skydiving with the U.S. Navy’s Leap Frogs”, Men’s Journal, November 9, 2023.

History of the Green Berets. Christopher Klein provides a historical timeline of U.S. Army Special Forces – from their founding in 1952 to the end of the GWOT era. “How Green Berets Became the US Army’s Elite Special Forces”, History.com, November 7, 2023.

Matt Parrish and TFDSOF. A former Green Beret, Matt Parrish, has been appointed as the new Executive Director of the Task Force Dagger Special Operations Foundation. Matt served much of his career with the 7th Special Forces Group. He recently retired, his last assignment with U.S. Special Operations Command in Tampa, Florida. https://www.taskforcedagger.org/our-team/

British SRR. Guy McCardle provides some insight into the British Special Reconnaissance Regiment (SRR). Established in 2005, the unit provided an evolution of the UK’s special forces capabilities. “SOF Spotlight: British Special Reconnaissance Regiment”, SOFREP, November 2023. (subscription)

Fires Center Named After Ranger. After four years of planning, collaboration, design, and renovation, the U.S. Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment cut the ribbon on the Domeij Fires Center on Nov. 2, 2023, marking its grand opening. “The Crucible of Fires: State of the Art Fires Center Named After Legendary Ranger”, U.S. Army, November 9, 2023.

Romania SOF Orders Polaris DAGOR. Romania is ordering more than 50 DAGOR ultralight tactical vehicles. These vehicles will enhance the tactical mobility of Romanian SOF. (Joint-Forces.com, Nov 13, 2023).

GBs Visit JFK’s Gravesite. A wreath-laying ceremony was held at the grave of President John F. Kennedy on November 8, 2023, at Arlington National Ceremony. “Green Berets bring annual tribute to JFK’s Arlington Gravesite”, Stars and Stripes, November 10, 2023.

Myths about SEALs. One result of that increased public notoriety, which has reflected both positively and negatively on the SEALs, has been the growth of certain misconceptions held by the wider public about the Navy SEAL Teams. “Think You Know the Navy SEALs? Here’s 3 Things You Have Wrong”, National Interest, November 9, 2023.

Combat Diver Competition. In September, two-man teams from across the U.S. special operations community competed in a number of MAROPS events held for three-days at Naval Air Station Key West. “US Commandos showed off their little-known underwater skills in Army Special Operations Command’s best combat diver competition”, Business Insider, November 11, 2023.

SOF History

Operation Eagle Claw. On November 4, 1979, nearly 3,000 fundamentalist Iranian students stormed the United States Embassy in Tehran and took 63 American personnel hostage. The storming of the Embassy came after the fall of Iran’s U.S.-backed government and the rise of an Islamic republic. The United States feared for the safety of all the hostages and as a result, on April 16, 1980, after months of being held, U.S. President Jimmy Carter approved a military rescue operation to free the hostages and end the crisis, codenamed Eagle Claw. Read more in “Operation Eagle Claw”, Grey Dynamics, November 8, 2023.

Afghanistan 2001. On November 13, 2001, Taliban-held Kabul fell to the Northern Alliance. Green Berets would enter the city the next day. The Northern Alliance were also advised and assisted by other SOF elements such as the 49th Public Affairs Detachment (ABN) out of Bragg, Psychological Operations elements, and 1st Battalion 87th Infantry Regiment out of Ft. Drum, NY. The initial operation name was Operation Stronghold Freedom and these U.S. service members made up the Joint Special Operations Task Force-North (JSOTF-N).

Book – Lincoln’s Special Forces. During the Civil War a shadow conflict took place between special irregular units of both sides. A new book entitled The Unvanquished covers the history of the Jessie Scouts, a unit that hunted Mosby’s Confederate Rangers from 1963 to the war’s end.

Conflict in Israel and Gaza

Evac of U.S. Citizens from ME? There are about 600,000 Americans (many dual citizens) that are living in Israel and Lebanon that may need to be evacuated. The U.S. government is getting ready to act if the war between the Palestinians militants of Gaza and Israel continues to escalate. “U.S. readies plans for mass evacuations if Gaza war escalates”, The Washington Post, October 23, 2023. (subscription)

Hostages. There are still 9 Americans missing and presumed to be hostages taken by Hamas and now held in captivity in Gaza Strip. U.S. SOF units are positioned in the area to respond to the situation and to offer Israel advice on hostage recovery.

Map. Check out a regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the 2023 Hamas-Israel War. “Mapping Clashes Along the Israel-Lebanon Border”, Washington Institute, November 1, 2023.

References: Map Gaza Strip (2005), and more maps of Gaza Strip, West Bank, and Israel.

Ukraine Conflict

Creating an Army in the US Fashion. The United States is repeating mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan – attempting to create a Ukrainian military with US doctrine and strategy. Some believe we are going about it all wrong. “It’s Time to Ukrainify US Military Assistance”, Modern War Institute at West Point, November 10, 2023.

Beating Up on Russia’s Navy. The Ukrainians have broken the Russian naval blockade of Odesa. Although Ukraine doesn’t have a navy it has mastered the use of unmanned maritime drones, long-range anti-ship missiles, and special operations forces to diminish the effectiveness of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. “How Ukraine, With No Warships, Is Thwarting Russia’s Navy”, by Marc Santora, The New York Times, November 12, 2023. (subscription) See also “Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Loses One of Its ‘Most Advanced Ships’ – Ukraine”, Newsweek, November 5, 2023.

Video – Training for the Return of Trench Warfare. The Ukraine conflict has evolved into a long-term battle where success is measured in small territorial gains along a wide front. With the war in Ukraine proving trench-to-trench battles are not a relic, NATO troops prepare for the grueling form of war. Military Times, November 6, 2023, YouTube, 2 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns0FeJG0kVU

Interactive Map. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine by the Insitute for the Study of War and Critical Threats.
On storymaps.arcgis.com

Help Special Operations Forces (SOF) personnel with spine injuries receive the healthcare options, education, and care they need.

Commentary

IW Research Center. David Maxwell provides his perspective on the merits of establishing an academic setting for the research of irregular warfare. “Ensuring the Success of America’s First University-based Irregular Warfare Research Center”, Small Wars Journal, November 8, 2023.

Stay Behind Forces. Brian Petit, a retired Special Forces colonel, provides his perspective on the use of stay behind forces in the context of four different occupation environments. “Should I Stay or Should I Go? Stay-behind Force Decision-Making”, War on the Rocks, November 8, 2023.

Intel Ops and IW. Sal Artiaga traces the history of intelligence operations over the course of recent warfare – from Vietnam to Ukraine. Over time, the nature of intelligence has shifted – from human-centric insights to technology-driven reconnaissance. The role of intelligence in irregular warfare is continuing to change, however, the importance of understanding human terrain will never go away. “The Evolution of Intelligence Operations in Support of Irregular Warfare”, Irregular Warfare Center, November 1, 2023.

PTSD and Psychedelics. Clinical trials have shown that, under the right conditions, psychedelics can have a positive effect on mental health conditions like PTSD or depression for some people. Veterans have responded by calling for greater access to psychedelic-assisted therapy for some patients. “Therapeutic Use of Psychedelics in Treating PTSD and Depression Among Veterans”, RAND Corporation, November 8, 2023.

National Security

CT and Armed Drones. The United States has significantly increased its use of armed drones to attack global counterterrorism targets since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11) continuing to
today to support U.S. and partnering country counterterrorism missions. Read more in Armed Drones: Evolution as a Counterterrorism Tool, Congressional Research Service, CRS IF12342, updated November 7, 2023, PDF, 3 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12342

U.S.-ROK Alliance. To more effectively advance three strategic priorities of the United States and Republic of Korea relationship, Secretary Austin (SecDef) and Minister Shin (ROK) are looking to restructure existing bilateral Alliance dialogue mechanisms to ensure that the Alliance is well-postured for the future. “Defense Vision of the U.S.-ROK Alliance”, U.S. Department of Defense, November 13, 2023.

Report on Nigeria. The Congressional Research Service has published an update to Nigeria: Overview and U.S. Policy, CRS R47052, updated November 9, 2023, PDF, 28 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47052

Great Power Competition

Preparing for War with China. Jennifer Hlad writes on how the U.S. Army is conducting exercises in the Indo-Pacific region to prepare for future conflicts. “How US Army Pacific is preparing for war with China”, Defense One, November 9, 2023.

IW in the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Lumpy Lumbaca details why a comprehensive Irregular Warfare (IW) campaign strategy is needed by the United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). He outlines the strategic focus areas that the IW campaign should be built upon and then describes the specific lines of effort that may be used as building blocks toward strategic success. “Irregular Warfare: Undermining the CCP’s Dangerous and Illegal Activities in the Indo-Pacific”, Small Wars Journal, November 12, 2023.

Afghanistan – China Wins? Almost two-and-a-half years after the U.S-backed Afghan government crumbled and the Taliban regime resumed power in Afghanistan, Chinese investors are maneuvering into the country – most notably to reap the benefits of Afghanistan’s abundant and in-demand national resources. Has China emerged as the ultimate winner of the long and devastating war? “Is China the Real Winner in Afghanistan?”, by Hollie McKay, The CIPHER Brief, November 13, 2023. (subscription)

Philippines Confronts China. For years China has slowly extended its maritime reach. It is now increasing tensions with the Philippines – a situation that may draw the United States into a maritime confrontation. “Let’s Call China’s Actions in the South China Sea What They Really Are”, by Charmaine Misalucha-Willougby, United States Institute of Peace, November 1, 2023.

China’s PLA. Payton Rawson describes “How China commands its ‘people’s army'”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, November 13, 2023.

Arrow Security & Training, LLC is a corporate sponsor of SOF News. AST offers a wide range of training and instruction courses and programs to include language and cultural services, training, role playing, and software and simulation. https://arrowsecuritytraining.com/

Afghanistan

Former CIA and SF Vets Helping Afghans. Members of “Team Alpha” – Special Forces and CIA paramilitary personnel who link up with the Northern Alliance in 2001 – are now assisting Afghans of the Northern Alliance who fought with them in the initial days of the invasion of Afghanistan by the United States. Their private organization, Badger Six, is working to bring these Afghan allies to the United States. “These US veterans aren’t giving up on Afghan fighters who save their lives”, New York Post, November 8, 2023.

Afghan Economy. Kate Clark provides an overview of the Afghan economy. It is a bleak look that contradicts the rosy proclamations of the Taliban regime. “Survival and Stagnation: The State of the Afghan Economy”, Afghanistan Analysts Network, November 7, 2023.

Deportation of Afghans from Pakistan. In October, Pakistan announced that undocumented migrants would be expelled from Pakistan. About 1.6 million Afghans currently live in Pakistan; some 600,000 fled there after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021. Beginning on November 1st, Pakistan began rounding up Afghans and sending them back to Afghanistan. Read more in “Pakistan opens 3 new border crossings to deport Afghans in ongoing crackdown on migrants”, by Abdul Sattar, The San Diego Union-Tribune, November 13, 2023.

Afghanistan’s Earthquakes. Herat province has suffered a series of deadly earthquakes over the past few months. This article looks at the damage and the science behind the earthquakes, the disaster response efforts, and what remains to be done to help Afghans affected by the quakes to rebuild their lives. “Nature’s Fury: The Herat earthquakes of 2023”, Afghanistan Analysts Network, November 10, 2023.

Podcast – Shawn VanDiver with #AfghanEvac. Shawn VanDiver, is president and founder of the #AfghanEvac coalition, which unites volunteers and professionals from government, national security, and public policy backgrounds in a search to fulfill the promises the U.S. made to its allies left behind in Afghanistan. Shawn talked about the important wins that the coalition has been able to achieve through their efforts, as well as some of the difficulties they have faced over the past two years. The Afghanistan Project Podcast, November 13, 2023, YouTube, one hour. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePjYq2x5E90

Middle East

U.S. Military Strikes in Syria. U.S. military forces conducted precision strikes today on facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran-affiliated groups in response to continued attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria. The strikes were conducted against a training facility and a safe house near the cities of Abu Kamal and Mayadin, respectively. See “U.S. airstrikes kill Iranian proxies in Syria, officials say”, The Washington Post, November 12, 2023. (subscription)

Houthi Rebels Shoot Down U.S. Reaper. A US drone was shot down by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on November 8, 2023. The MQ-9 was shot down in Yemeni airspace. “U.S. officials have confirmed an MQ-9 has been shot down off the coast of Yemen”, The Aviationist, November 8, 2023.

Qatar. The Congressional Research Service has updated its report entitled Qatar: Issues for the 118th Congress, CRS R47467, updated November 3, 2023, PDF, 27 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47467

SOF News Book Shop

View our selection of books about special operations forces at the SOF News Book Shop.

Books, Podcasts, Videos, and Movies

Video – Rescuing Americans Where Others Won’t. Brian Stern of Project Dynamo is interviewed by Matt Parrish on the Prep for Impact show. Stern’s organization has been assisting in the evacuation of Americans from Afghanistan, Ukraine, Sudan, and now Israel and Gaza. The podcast is backed by the Green Beret Foundation. November 6, 2023, YouTube, 57 mins. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUwmnpguD80

Video – Scott Mann and SF Around the World. A retired Green Beret talks about the role of U.S. Special Forces around the globe. Fox News, November 11, 2023, 5 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ySJHjv5Tjg

Video – The Legacy of the 75th Ranger Regiment in Afghanistan. The 75th Ranger Regiment, YouTube, November 11, 2023, 8 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYrJZDzXytI

Video – Training ARVN | Foreign Internal Defense (FID). “Training ARVN” examines US Foreign Internal Defense (FID) doctrine through the early years of the Army of the Republic of Vietnam. ARVN came to look like a mirror image of the US Army of the 1960s. Under American advisement, South Vietnam developed its abilities in its war against North Vietnam and the National Liberation Front. Yet ARVN’s deficiencies contributed to the United States’ decision to introduce American combat forces in 1965. Army University Press, YouTube, November 2, 2023, 29 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAOUnPOUzoQ&t=2s

Video – Beyond the Battlefield: Inside the US Special Forces. History, YouTube, November 12, 2023, 8 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q2pvUg95co

Upcoming Events

November 29-30, 2023
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Civil Affairs Association

The Lead Inspector General report to the United States Congress on Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) has been published online. The 136-page report covers the period of October 1 to December 31, 2020 – although there are some updates that cover significant events that took place in January 2021.

The report states that Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continued to contain the Islamic State (IS). The insurgent group has been operating at a low level in Iraq and Syria. It has failed to execute complex attacks, seize territory, or conduct external attacks.

Militia groups in Iraq continue to pose a security threat to U.S. forces and the OIR mission. Iranian-aligned militias have increased violent acts against U.S. interests. The Baghdad regime is caught in the middle between the United States and Iran in attempting to curtail the activities of these militia groups.

In Syria the United States interests are threatened by Iranian and Syrian regime proxies that are operating in northeastern Syria. These groups continue their attacks against the Syrian Democratic Forces and are attempting to gain influence in territory previously held by the Islamic State.

The IG report provides an update on the status of ISIS, reviews major developments in the two countries, and outlines its IG oversight activities. In addition, it has sections (about both Iraq and Syria) on the following:

• Actions conducted against ISIS
• Partner force development
• Role of third parties
• Diplomacy and political developments
• Stabilization
• Humanitarian assistance

There are several appendices that cover the methodology for preparing the report, Department of Justice activities, actions against terrorist financing, acronyms, maps, and endnotes.

There is very little mention of U.S. special operations forces. One entry on page 60 of the report states that U.S. SOF sometimes accompany the SDF on targeted operations or support from a nearby mission support site. A “Ctrl-F” search of the document (PDF) for SOJTF, CSOJTF-S, or CSOJTF-I provides zero results. These three acronyms are not even listed in the two-page acronym appendix. Usually there is a classified appendix to this report that would likely provide some insight into SOF activities in Iraq and Syria for Congressional members (and others). However, due to constraints resulting from the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic, the IG agencies did not prepare a classified appendix this quarter. If you are looking for an update on SOF activities in Iraq or Syria over the past few months you will need to go elsewhere.

There are some sections of the report that are very interesting and make for good reading if you are looking to increase your awareness of the current state of the conflicts in Iraq and Syria. For instance the map of Syria (page 56) reveals just how much of the territory once controlled exclusively by the SDF is now patrolled by Turkish, Syrian, and Russian forces. Coalition forces, for the most part, are reduced to operating on the eastern flank of northeastern Syria.

The report provides a good update (from the perspective of the DOD, State, and other agencies) on the overall situation in Iraq and Syria. There is a lot of information in the report on the situation and events taking place in the two countries that doesn’t get reported in the media.

Operation Inherent Resolve Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress, covers October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020, published online February 9, 2021, PDF, 136 pages.
View online or download here.

COL Keith Nightingale (Ret) is the author of Phoenix Rising: From the Ashes of Desert One to the Rebirth of U.S. Special Operations. The book, published in 2020 by Casemate Publishers, provides a detailed look at Operation EAGLE CLAW. This was a mission by U.S. Army Special Forces, supported by other military forces, to rescue American hostages held in the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Iran.

The hostages were taken in November 1979 by Iranian demonstrators that gained control of the embassy grounds and were held prisoner for months. The rescue attempt by Delta Force was aborted once on the ground in Iran at a staging area – due to maintenance problems the force came up one helicopter short. Tragically, after the mission was aborted, and the rescue force prepared to depart Iran, an aircraft mishap took place killing eight servicemembers.

The failed attempt was an embarrassment for President Jimmy Carter and proved to be a major factor in his defeat in the upcoming presidential election to Ronald Reagan. The aborted hostage rescue prompted a reexamination of America’s special operations capabilities.

This book provides a first person account of the coordination, preparation, and conduct of the hostage rescue mission. Keith Nightingale, as an Army major, was the Deputy Operations Officer for Joint Task Force Eagle Claw. Based on his personal diary the book offers an inside look at the personalities, issues, bureaucratic infighting, coordination, and preparation for the mission as well as the events during and after the mission.

The book follows a logical path: covering the planning, training, execution, and aftermath of the hostage rescue mission. It concludes with a description of post-mission actions and events that would eventually lead to a reorganization of the special operations community.

The author employs a unique format: providing almost standalone vignettes relating to the mission, many only 1-3 pages long. Some of these are entitled: “Inside an RH-53”, “The Agency Men”, “The Truck Option”, “The Navigator”, “The Shrink”, “Cash and Carry”, and many more. This particular style made for an interesting and engaging read.

An important part of the book – at the end – involves the ‘politics’ of the formation of what would become the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations / Low Intensity Conflict (SO/LIC) and the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). The bureaucratic infighting and Pentagon stonewalling of the intent of Congress to increase America’s SOF capability is explained in great detail by Nightingale.

If you are a student of special operations or someone interested in military history then you will find this a worthwhile and interesting read. The book is available on Amazon in hardcover and Kindle format.

Phoenix Rising, by Keith Nightingale, Casemate Publishers, 2020
https://www.amazon.com/Phoenix-Rising-Hostage-Rebirth-Operations/dp/1612008771/

Army University Press Films announces its second film in the Operation Iraqi Freedom film series. Beginning on 1 April 2003, this film features Coalition Forces’ fight for Saddam Hussein’s capital. The film opens with the fight for Objective PEACH, covers the battles for objectives around the city, and concludes with Soldiers and Marines meeting up in downtown Baghdad.

Army University Press, August 14, 2020, YouTube, 50 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8uaFZAxzpw

Story by Sgt. Cambrin Bassett, SOJTF-OIR, June 20, 2020

Qwat al-Khasah or SFI (Special Forces of Iraq) are handpicked from the Iraqi Security Force or ISF, whose members come from all regions of Iraq and many different backgrounds. They consider themselves a non-sectarian specialized fighting force, putting their country first, and always ready to answer the call in defense of the nation.

SFI, under the Iraq Ministry of Defense, is the first special operations force in the Iraqi military and operates similar to US Army Rangers. The name Qwat al-Khasah is Arabic for “Special Forces.”

“The Special Forces of Iraq have a long and prestigious history as a well-known and highly respected unit prior to partnership with Coalition Special Operations,” states the U.S. Special Forces Commander currently advising the SFI on training and combat operations against Daesh. “When the Qwat al-Khasah arrive to locations throughout Iraq, just their presence in the area has a stabilizing affect as they are highly respected by the people for their humanity and outreach to locals, but also because of their skill at closing with and destroying Daesh.”

With three battalions that stand ready to deploy anywhere in Iraq within 96 hours, the Qwat al-Khasah is a specialized light fighting force capable of rapid infiltration, raid, ambush, aerial and ground reconnaissance, and wide area clearance. The group is also trained on various weapons platforms, ranging from light machine guns to mortar systems.
Since 2018, validation of the 1st and 2nd Qwat al-Khasah battalions included real-world operations outside of traditional training grounds. This specialized training paired with real operations have quickly transformed them into an elite force that supports and strengthens the Iraqi Army and other Iraqi Security Forces with their expertise in small unit tactics for counter-terrorism operations.

“With strong efforts from the Iraqi Army leadership the Special Forces were established equivalent to world armies. The Special Forces were trained and equipped at a high level with cooperation of the coalition forces,” says a senior Qwat al-Khasah leader. “The Qwat al-Khasah Brigade established and is ready to implement missions as a long arm for the Iraqi Army and as a strong reserve to involve in any mission that requires counter-terrorism operations.”

The Qwat al-Khasah partner with Special Operations Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve on Iraq-focused counter-terrorism missions to bring the fight to Daesh directly. This kind of partnership helps eliminate future terrorist attacks and provides stability to Iraq and the region.

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Photo: Qwat al-khasah, Special Forces Iraq, is provided advice, assistance, and support by SOJTF-OIR. Photo by Sgt. Cambrin Bassett, June 24, 2020.

This article was originally posted on DVIDS on June 20, 2020. The author is Sgt. Cambrin Bassett, Special Operations Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve.

On March 23, 2019 the Pentagon announced the physical defeat of the Daesh caliphate in Syria. Over 110,000 square miles were liberated and 7.7 million people freed from Daesh oppression. The Syrian Democratic Front was assisted by U.S. airpower, ISR, and special operations forces in its defeat of the Islamic State fighters. The SDF had finally captured Baghouz – the last Islamic State physical enclave in Syria.

The Special Operations Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (SOJTF-OIR) published this story below on March 18, 2020 summarizing the rise and fall of the Daesh in Iraq and Syria. The article details the final battle for the last ISIS enclave of Baghouz where the SDF defeated the ISIS fighters in their last piece of physical terrain.

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“At the height of their power, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, now referred to as Daesh, operated in 18 different countries and had an annual budget of $1 billion with an estimated 30,000 members. They conducted ground attacks on both government forces and any other force that opposed them. Their goal: to establish a so-called caliphate in the region.

On Aug. 7th, 2014, the U.S.-led coalition launched airstrikes against Daesh. On March 23rd, 2019, the Pentagon announced the physical defeat of the Daesh caliphate in Syria. Over 110,000 square miles were liberated. Approximately 7.7 million people were freed from Daesh oppression. In Baghouz, Syria, where the final battle took place, a yellow flag was flown atop a building by U.S.-backed Syrian forces as they celebrated their victory over Daesh.

Founded in 1999 under the name Jamāʻat al-Tawḥīd wa-al-Jihād and changing to Islamic State of Iraq in 2006, and with an allegiance to al-Qaeda, the oppressive presence of Daesh in the region grew once Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi came to power in 2010. Al-Baghdadi became involved with Daesh while detained in Camp Bucca in the early 2000’s. When released from detainment, he quickly rose in prominence by being directly involved in the violent atrocities conducted by Daesh.

Throughout the next several years with al-Baghdadi as head, Daesh seized control of several major cities in Iraq. Kidnappings, mass murder, and extortion were common crimes committed by Daesh members. By declaring the creation of a so-called caliphate, Daesh gave al-Baghdadi self-proclaimed authority over the Muslims of the world. Their declaration as a caliphate was criticized and disputed by Middle Eastern governments. They were officially declared a terrorist organization by both Iraq and Syria, along with many other nations of the world.

Coalition troops were sent into Iraq to support the defeat of Daesh. In October of 2014, this combined effort was given the name Operation Inherent Resolve. Along with Iraqi and Syrian forces, over 30 countries combined together for the sole mission of defeating Daesh. The Combined Joint Task Force- Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) worked with partner forces to free the nearly 8 million people under the control of Daesh.

By mid-2015, Kurdish fighters expelled Daesh out of towns in Syria and reclaimed military bases that had fallen under Daesh control. In late 2015, Iraqi forces took control of Ramadi from Daesh and then Fallujah just six months later. After several years of combined assaults, Daesh was quickly losing control of central Iraq.

Mosul was retaken from Daesh control toward the end of 2016. Mosul was considered by Daesh as their capital city in the two years since it fell under their control. By early 2017, Daesh had lost all control of central Iraq. At the end of July 2017, it was reported that Daesh had lost an estimated 73% of the territory they had once controlled in Iraq. By the end of the year, the Iraqi Army announced all of Iraq had been liberated and their people freed from Daesh oppression.

On March 23rd, 2019, the Syrian Democratic Forces announced that Daesh had lost its final stronghold in Syria, bringing an end to their so-called caliphate. On Oct. 26th, 2019, during a raid conducted by U.S. forces, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in Northwest Syria.

CJTF-OIR continues its pursuit of Daesh remnants to this day. The remains still linger, but with few resources and the inability to project power to the same degree as they did in 2012, they have very little influence in the region. The continued training of partner forces within the scope of the Defeat Daesh mission is now the focus of Operation Inherent Resolve, along with preventing Daesh from re-emerging in the region and recruiting members to fight for them once again.

Iraq is working hard to establish a stable, unified government. After being devastated by the threat of Daesh, the Iraqi people are primed and ready for this transition, moving closer to being a free and sovereign nation withstanding against any third-party interference. Its military is ready to take a more active role in the safety and security of Iraq, and demonstrate its ability to protect the people and interests of Iraq.

The last of Daesh’s territory in Syria crumbled at the battle of Baghouz. The SDF were the critical land force in this offensive and through their significant sacrifice eliminated the last territorial stronghold held by Daesh. By taking a disciplined, incremental approach to the battle the SDF were able to spare the large civilian population that Daesh fighters used as human shields in the densely populated area. The tactical effectiveness of their approach mixed with the fair treatment of civilians showed the SDF to be an honorable and powerful fighting force.

After over a month of fighting, The SDF declared final victory over Daesh on March 23, 2019, marking the end of Daesh controlled territory in Syria. Their legacy: millions of people have been liberated from Daesh’s barbaric cruelty and fear, and over 900 Daesh fighters surrendering by the end of the battle.

In the last year, the role of the Coalition has been to work alongside partner forces in Iraq and Syria in preventing the remnants of Daesh from returning to power, and to keep the extremist ideologies of Daesh suppressed. The destruction of Daesh provides partners the space and time to recover from the physical and emotional damage that has been left behind in their wake.

The lessons of the rise and fall of Daesh have shown the international community the need to remain vigilant and prepared, to swiftly respond to any threat by third-party actors or violent extremist organizations. The fortitude of the Iraqi and Syrian people and the continued Coalition support of our partner forces, what was once darkened by Daesh, is rejuvenated with the aspirations of a free people.”

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The above article is from “The Defeat of Daesh: One Year Later”, Special Operations Joint Task force – Operation Inherent Resolve (SOJTF-OIR), by Specialist Brian Redmer, March 18, 2020.
https://www.dvidshub.net/news/365422/defeat-daesh-one-year-later-nemabuna-reva-dais-salek-pase

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Top Photo: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) provide security for a Coalition mortar crew providing fires support to SDF against ISIS locations in Operation Round Up taking place in the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) in Syria. (photo by SSG Timothy Koster, CJTF-OIR, May 13, 2018).

More than 8,000 multinational troops participated in Exercise Eager Lion 19. This is the ninth year of the exercise – an event that provides for multinational interoperability for some 30 nations. The United States contributed about 3,700 troops to the exercise which was held in Jordan from August 25th to September 5th, 2019.

The United States and Jordan provided the exercise direction – and much of the activities took place at the King Abdullah II special Operations Training Center in Jordan. There were 14 nations that joined the U.S. and Jordanian SOF teams participating in the SOF-related training events. U.S. Central Command, conventional, and special operations units played leading roles in the conduct of the two-week long exercise.

This is the ninth iteration of Eager Lion. SOF-related training events included counter unmanned aerial system training, dive operations, vehicle interdiction, UH-60 rappel and hoist, MEDEVAC, fires, amphibious assaults, and naval vessel boarding, search, and seizure operations.

U.S. Forces. An exercise as big as Eager Lion has a lot of components participating as well as supporting in the event. Some of the U.S. units participating included elements and personnel from the Special Operations Command Central, 5th Special Forces Group, ARCENT, 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 159th Aviation Regiment (USAR), 229th Aviation Regiment, 44th Infantry BCT (ARNG), 22nd Expeditionary Weather Squadron, 98th Expeditionary Signal Battalion, U.S. Navy, and Air Force Special Tactics personnel.

Foreign Units participating. In addition to U.S. forces there were a host of foreign units taking part. The units included the British Royal Gurkha Rifles, Jordanian 61st Battalion Quick Reaction Force, Jordanian 39th Mechanized Infantry Battalion, Jordanian 81st Rapid Intervention Battalion, and others.

Fly Away. One of the first events of the exercise was the ‘Fly Away’ that included the loading of U.S. and Jordanian aircraft into a Qatari c-17 airplane. Personnel from the U.S. Special Operations Aviation Detachment (SOAD) attached to U.S. Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT) participated in this event. Watch a video of the event – Eager Lion 2019 – Fly Away Exercise,Aug 27, 2019, 2 mins.

Maritime Operations. Jordanian, Qatari, and French soldiers took part in a Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure exercise on the Red Sea during Eager Lion 2019. They conducted a fast rope onto a ship from a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter and boarded via a Zodiac from the sea. Watch a 6-min long B-Roll video of the training event. (DVIDS, Sep 5, 2019).

Friendship Jump. At the end of the exercise over 250 SOF parachutists from ten nations participated in an airborne operation. These nations included Saudi Arabia, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece, Brunei, Cyprus, Qatar, the U.S., and Jordan. The airborne operation allowed the partner nations to plan, coordinate, and execute an operation together. Many of the parachutists were jumping with parachutes they were not accustomed to.

11th MEU. The 11th MEU was supported by the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group (ARG). The MEU conducted live-fire amphibious raids with amphibious assault vehicles, M777 howitzers, and light armored reconnaissance vehicles. The MEU launced from U.S. Navy amphibious ships. The Boxer ARG / 11th MEU is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations. One of their missions is to ensure maritime stability and security in the Central region connecting the Mediterranean and the Pacific through the Western Indian Ocean and in three strategic choke points.

Jordanian FET. Members of the all-woman Mohamed Bin Zayed Brigade / Quick Reaction Force Female Engagement Team were part of the Eager Lion 19 exercise. The JAF FET exists to engage women in situations in a way that also respects cultural norms. Some of the women role played in scenarios as either friendlies or adversaries; while other JAF FET members were participants in the exercise.

Cyber Security. The Eager Lion 19 exercise also featured a cyber security team made up of U.S. personnel and members of the Jordanian Cyber Incident Response Team. The cyber training had several objectives to include cyber security monitoring, malicious content detection, and incident response procedures. The cyber team repelled two real-world attacks on the exercise network.

“The primary goal is to build camaraderie and foster a relationship with our partner nations to further our effort in regional security and stabilitiy. the bonding and creating of friendships between the Soldiers and officers of our Allies is what made this exercise a great success.”

Lt. Col. John Hake, commander, 1st Battalion, 5th Special Forces Group.

The exercise scenario involved challenges to regional security in the Middle East at the operational level. Some of the exercise events included a Senior Leader Seminar, a combined air and land exercise, cyber threat response, maritime security operations, airborne operations, and a Global Strike Mission. Beginning in 2020, U.S. Army Central will transition from participating in Eager Lion annually to switching between Eager Lion and Bright Star in Egypt each year.

Videos

USAF Special Tactics Conduct High Angle Rope Skill with Coalition Forces During Eager Lion 2019, 1st Combat Camera Squadron, August 27, 2019. B-roll, 2 mins. This video depicts Cyprus National Guard Special Forces and Lebanese Special Forces Regiment 5 conducting high angle rope skills training with U.S. Air Force ST operators.

Urban Operations, 1st Combat Camera Squadron, August 25, 2019. In this video Cypriot and Jordanian Special Forces train in urban operations with USAF Special Tactics operator. (B-Roll, 2-mins).

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Photo: A Cyprus National Guard Special Forces member, kicks off from the top of a rappel tower during partnered training with U.S. Air Force Special Tactics Operators and coalition forces during exercise Eager Lion 2019 at King Abdullah II Special Operations Training Center, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Aug. 27, 2019. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Sean Campbell)

SOF News Update 20180323 – Russia’s SOF training in Gulf of Finland, Dunford enthusiastic about 1st SFAB, 1966 door gunner training video, OSS receives Congressional Gold Medal, LE CT training facility opens in Jordan, Poland’s more modern military, joining the SFABs, Erik Prince in the news again, AFSOC Cdr’s addresses Airmen, CT in Afghanistan, SOCOM’s WMD mission, DARPA’s ‘COMPASS’ program and the ‘Gray Zone’, and more.

Russia’s SOF Training in Gulf of Finland. SOF units based in Russia’s Western Military District have been conducting exercises with special operations forces on islands in the Gulf of Finland. (EER.ee, Mar 21, 2018).

A Day of Death in Iraq. Derek Gannon writes about one day in Iraq in 2008 while assigned to the 5th SFGA CIF company. Read “Mortus Discrimiatus: The day I almost died in Iraq”, Fusion Cell, March 21, 2018.

DARPA’s ‘COMPASS’ Program and the ‘Gray Zone’. The Gray Zone is conflict that exists in a nebulous area between peace and traditional warfare tactics. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is rolling out a new program called COMPASS or . . . Collection and Monitoring via Planning for Active Situational Scenarios. (American Security Today, Mar 20, 2018).

Dunford Enthusiastic About 1st SFAB. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – General Joe Dunford – spent a little time visiting Afghanistan. While there he met with some of the ‘combat advisors’ of the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB). He seemed impressed with an ongoing combined operation involving the 201st ANA Corps, police units, and the National Directorate of Security. (Defense Media Activity, Mar 21, 2018).

LE CT Training Facility in Jordan. Funded by the United States, a law enforcement counterterrorism training facility has now opened in Jordan. (AP, Mar 22, 2018).

SOCOM’s WMD Mission. The United States Special Operations Command is the lead U.S. agency for countering weapons of mass destruction. With the advances in technology the use of chemical, biological, and radiologic weapons by terrorist groups becomes more likely. The new National Defense Strategy is making it easier for SOCOM to get the intelligence capabilities and tactical gear it needs to tackle the WMD problem set. Read an article on this topic by Patrick Tucker in “For Special Operations Forces, Fighting WMD Means Getting Deeper Into Enemies Leadership and Decision-Making”, Defense One, March 22, 2018.

CT in Afghanistan. Nicholas Glavin writes that the U.S. strategy of R4+S – regionalize, realign, reinforce, and reconciliation, plus sustain – provides the best way ahead for SECDEF Mattis vision of winning.

AFSOC Cdr Addresses Airmen. On March 13th the Air Force Special Operations Command boss – Lt. Gen. Bard Webb addressed his staff to explain his thoughts on the new National Defense Strategy guidance. (AFSOC DVIDS, Mar 19, 2018). Read “Sustaining U.S. Counterterrorism Pressure in Afghanistan”, The National Interest, March 20, 2018.

Analyzing ‘Marauders’. Chris Flaherty, a Senior Research Associate of the Terrorism Research Center, provides us a modern-day definition of ‘marauder’ – arguing that the marauder is an example of asymmetric operations. Read “The Marauder as an asymmetric operational concept”, Small Wars Journal, March 22, 2018.

Erik Prince in the News Again. One of America’s more famous former SEALs – and the founder of Blackwater – finds himself in the news. Read “American Mercenary Was in Talks with Azerbaijan over Weaponized Crop Duster”, Eurasianet, March 21, 2018.

Joining the SFABs. BG Mennes, director of force management (G-3/5/7), provides info on the assessment, selection, and training of soldiers filling the ranks of the Army’s Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFABs). See “Soldiers in SFABs high-end achievers, says BG Mennes”, Army News Service, March 19, 2018.

Poland’s More Modern Military. Russia’s increasing aggressiveness over the past decade has the Poles worried. The terrain of Poland – mostly flat ground easily traversed by tanks and motorized infantry – puts the country at a military disadvantage. Poland has been hard at work in increasing its military capability. Read more in “Preparing for the Worst: Poland’s Military Modernization”, Geopoliticus: The FPRI Blog, March 22, 2018.

1966 Door Gunner Training Video. This 3-min long video provides some insight into the training of U.S. Army helicopter door gunners. (Task & Purpose, Mar 12, 2018).

OSS Receives Congressional Gold Medal. The Office of Strategic Services was recognized by the U.S. Congress on Wednesday (Mar 21st) for its contribution to the war effort during World War II. (The Washington Times, Mar 21, 2018). See also a press release from Speaker Paul Ryan’s press office entitled “Congress Presents Gold Medal to the Office of Strategic Services”, March 21, 2108.

Update Kirkuk – It appears that the Kirkuk offensive conducted by the security forces of the Government of Iraq (GoI) on Sunday and Monday (October 15-16) was more a coordinated movement into areas held by Kurdish forces and not so much a combat operation. Before or as the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) moved into strategic military, government, and economic locations the Kurdish Peshmerga moved out. There were some clashes that caused some fatalities but they were minimal – when compared to what could have transpired.

Importance of Kirkuk. The city of Kirkuk, located in the province of Kirkuk, has had a mixed ethnic composition for many years. Looking back into history Kirkuk has always been on the fault line between the Kurds and Arabs. Kirkuk is contested for a number of reasons – it has a mixed population (Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and Christians) [1], is the location of significant oil fields, and it is an economic center for the region. In addition, there are some important military bases near the city – an army installation and a military air base.

Kirkuk and the Constitution. The status of the city was supposed to be determined by a referendum according to the new constitution that emerged after Saddam Hussein and his government was removed after the U.S. invasion. The referendum was never held and remains a source of discontent for many Kurds.

ISIS Offensive in August 2014. After winning battle after battle against the Iraq army the Islamic State turned its attention to the Kirkuk area (no doubt with the oil fields in mind). As ISIS advanced the Iraqi army fled in disarray. It left behind armored vehicles, artillery, and other weapons and equipment to be captured by ISIS. The Kurds, assisted with U.S. air power, prevented the capture of Kirkuk by ISIS.

Negotiated Withdrawal or Ultimatum? It appears that behind-the-scenes negotiations took place prior to the ISF move into Kirkuk city and the surrounding areas. Some reports say that the negotiations broke down and the Government of Iraq issued an ultimatum. At any rate the Kurds simply decided not to fight. Time will tell as ‘experts’ analyze this event over the next several weeks. Hopefully we will see some statements from the U.S., Government of Iraq (GoI), and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) that clarify the situation.

Themes Emerging. In reading the media reports (across a wide spectrum) there are several ‘stories’ coming out that are attracting attention. These themes include the influence of Iran, escalation of tensions between Shia and Kurds, possible loss of the Kurds as an ally with the ISF in the fight against ISIS, diminishing hopes of independence for the Kurds of Iraq, loss of oil revenue to the Kurds, and the future of Kurdish autonomy within Iraq. A sampling of reporting on these themes is presented below.

Iranian Influence. The big winner in the defeat of ISIS in Iraq will likely be Iran. The United States has simply been outflanked diplomatically by the long-time regional rival to U.S. power in the Gulf region. Certainly Iran is a major player in the current dispute between the GoI and the Kurds. It’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) provides support to the Shia militias (Hashd al-Shaabi) – many who are currently at the gates of Kirkuk. In addition, the Federal Police (historically linked to Iran), are taking part in the Kirkuk occupation.

U.S. – Iran Relations. Iran has been reaping benefits from the war on ISIS. It has consolidated its position in Syria and Iraq. While presumably an ally in the Iraqi fight against ISIS it is at odds with the U.S. in Yemen and Syria. While the U.S. is urging restraint through diplomatic overtures to Tehran President Trump is threatening to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. The Shia may very well be taking the lead (urged on by Iran) to oppose the move towards Kurdish independence and the continued holding of ‘disputed areas in Iraq’ by the Kurds forces.

Shia – Kurd Relations. The Kurds have been known to be a tolerant people towards other ethnic groups. As an oppressed people they have sympathized with the fate of the Shia, Christians, Turkmen, and Yazidi. However, the dyamics between the Shia and Kurds have taken a turn for the worse.

“Racism becoming a dangerous tool in Kurdistan”, by Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute (AEI), October 16, 2017.

“A new war in Iraq, now between Shia Arabs and Kurds”, The Economist, October 16, 2017.

Kurdish Fragmentation. The rival factions within Kurdistan are accusing each other of abandoning Kirkuk. However neither of the groups appeared to have fought the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) incursion into Kirkuk or the outlying strategic military and economic targets. The behind the scenes maneuvering that took place in the days prior to the move by the ISF into Kirkuk will certainly be interesting (if the moves are ever fully revealed). The Democratic Party of Kurdistan (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have long been at odds with each – and their relationship (or lack of) has been a significant factor in being unable to present a unified Kurdish front to the central government. There are reports that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) worked very closely with the ISF to turn over areas to the Baghdad forces. In addition, it seems the PUK is working closely with Iranian officials to enhance its status in the aftermath of this event.

“Baghdad Retakes Kirkuk”, Soufan Group, October 17, 2017.

“Kurdish Dreams of Independence Delayed Once Again”, by Dexter Filkins, The New Yorker, October 16, 2017.

Loss of Oil Revenue. The taking of the oil fields by the central government of Iraq will severely restrict the amount of funds that the KRG will have available to run the region. This is at a time when the central government has sent little in funding to the Kurds for the administration of the region, providing government services, or to maintain the military forces of the Kurds. There are reported to be at least six oil fields in the area and the GoI’s security forces now control at least one of them.

Economic Strangle Hold. The borders of Kurdistan are subject to closure by the governments of Iran and Turkey. International flights into the airports located in Kurdistan have been stopped. For the moment, both nations are working closely with the government of Iraq to ensure the Kurdish referendum for independence held on September 25th does not lead to a declaration of independence by the Kurdish officials.

Fight Against ISIS. The Islamic State has been removed from almost all of the territory it captured in 2014 and 2015. It still remains in isolated pockets throughout Iraq and has areas under its control in the West of Iraq; especially along the Syrian border. ISIS is predicted to adapt its tactics – becoming (once again) an insurgent / terrorist group. Prolonged fighting between the ISF and the Peshmerga will detract from the future counterinsurgency operations that will be conducted against ISIS.

“What’s behind the dangerous escalation of tension between forces fighting ISIS in Iraq”, Stars and Stripes, October 16, 2017.

A Headache for the U.S. The tension between the Kurds and the central government is a headache for the United States. At the same time it is focused on eliminating (as much as that is possible) the ISIS presence in Iraq (and numerous other countries) it is trying to limit the spread of Iranian influence and military activities in the greater Middle East area. The elite Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) that the U.S. has trained, equipped, and advised (with U.S. SOF personnel at the tactical level) is now in Kirkuk in opposition to the Peshmerga.

U.S. Way Ahead? In and effort to de-escalate the tension the U.S. will put pressure on the Kurds to make some concessions in the days and weeks ahead.  It probably has become clear to the inhabitants of Kirkuk that US support for the Kurds is a fragile and probably temporary arrangement. In addition, it will threaten the curtailment of assistance to the Government of Iraq in the fight against ISIS (money, equipment, weapons, trainers, advisors, air support, artillery support, etc.). [2]

Footnotes:

[1] In the 1980s the Iraqi regime conducted an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Iraq – removing Kurds from key areas of the region. In the 1990s Saddam Hussein conducted an ‘Arabization’ of Kirkuk; moving Kurds out of the city and Arabs into the city. This had a significant change in the ethnic composition. In 2003, after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Kurds began returning to their homes. In 2014 the Iraqi army fled in the face of the Islamic State offensive in northern Iraq. The Peshmerga stopped the advance into many of the northern regions of Iraq and retook much of the Kirkuk area back from ISIS.

[2] See “We’re Not Taking Sides, Trump Tells Clashing Kurds, Iraqis”, Defense One, October 16, 2017.

Kurdistan Independence Referendum. Independence in the Middle East has been an elusive dream for many Kurds. The Kurds of Iraq believe the time has come to pursue the establishment of an independent state for the Kurdish people. The overwhelming majority of Kurds living in northern Iraq voted for independence in a recent referendum held in early October 2017. Over 70% of the eligible voters participated in the referendum with nine out of ten voters backing independence.

Iraqi Government Reaction. The Iraqi central government is not keen on losing a significant portion of its territory. In addition, it does not want to lose the revenue of the large oil reserves of the Kurdish region. The central government of Iraq responded quickly with statements opposing the vote for Kurdistan independence and actions limiting the autonomy of the Kurdish region. International flights were prohibited and some border crossings were taken over by Iraqi security forces.

Possible Military Action. The ability of the Iraqi security forces to take military action against the Kurds is questionable. Although threats of reoccupying the Kurdish areas of Iraq should be taken seriously, it is doubtful military action will be taken to wrest control of the entire Kurdish enclave. There is the possibility that Kirkuk could be the scene of violence. One cannot discount the possibility of the Iranian-back Shiia militias working in conjunction with the ISF to attempt to occupy Kirkuk.

Regional Implications. Outside of Iraq the neighboring powers also expressed their dismay. The nations of Iran, Turkey, and Syria all have significant Kurdish populations and they are worried that an Iraqi Kurdish independence movement will spill over the border into the Kurdish populated areas of their countries. There will be significant regional implications if Iraqi Kurds attain independence.

Regional Reaction. The Iranians have pushed a small number of tanks and artillery to border areas where Iran meets the Kurdish autonomous region. In addition, Iran ordered a fuel embargo stopping international movement of fuel products in or out of Iraqi Kurdistan. International flights are barred from landing at either the Erbil or Sulaymaniya airports and the regional airlines of other countries are complying with that request. Turkey has agreed to deal only with Baghdad on oil exports – putting a severe cramp in the revenue flow of oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey. Lurking in the background is Russia – with a seemingly close working relationship with Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

Is There A Case for Kurdish Independence? The Kurds have a long history, a distinct national identity, common language, shared culture, ethnic identity, and defined geographical location. [1] At the conclusion of World War I an international agreement [2] provided a legal basis for statehood. This was never achieved but the Kurdish people have not forgotten what they almost attained. Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, spells out some criteria that should be considered for the establishment of a new country. He believes that there is a persuasive case for Kurdish independence.

U.S. Support of Kurds. The United States has issued formal statements opposing the Kurdish independence movement. There are some observers of the Middle East who advocate a breakup of the Iraqi state into three separate nations – comprised of Sunni, Shia, and Kurd peoples. The U.S. opposes this construct as well as an independent Kurdish state. As this situation develops – Kurdistan independence – the U.S. will be put into a vexing situation. Despite being staunch U.S. allies in the fight against the Islamic State [3] the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq may find that the U.S. support of the Kurds is a temporary arrangement.

Unique Relationship of U.S. SOF with the Kurds. The Peshmerga have a long history with U.S. Special Forces. In 1991, shortly after the Gulf War, the 10th Special Forces Group deployed to southern Turkey and northern Iraq (Operation Provide Comfort) to set up administer refugee camps and facilitate the movement of Kurds from the Turkish border area back to a safe haven zone inside northern Iraq. Operation Provide Comfort would continue for a number of years with the establishment of a no-fly zone (and continued coordination with U.S. SOF). During the 2003 invasion of Iraq the 10th Special Forces Group linked up with the Peshmerga and conducted an offensive against Iraqi units in northern Iraq.

Viability of a Kurdistan State is Questionable. Kurdistan is a land-locked region. To travel from Kurdistan by air to international destinations you must overfly Iraq (to the south), Iran, Turkey, or Syria. If these four nations refuse overflights then the Kurds would have to move people and goods by ground movement. Once again this movement overland must be allowed by the four countries mentioned above. An independent Kurdistan would find trade with international partners to be heavily dependent on good relations with its neighboring countries.

Compromise in the Future. It is unlikely the international community will rally in support of Kurdistan independence. One way out of the current dispute is a negotiated settlement between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Baghdad central government. The major agenda topics would include how the territory would be allocated (Kirkuk comes to mind), how oil revenues are shared, and how much autonomy an Iraqi Kurdistan would enjoy.

Footnotes:

[1] A number of old maps provide insight into the historical lands of the Kurdish people. These can be viewed at “Atlas of Kurdistan”, Wikimedia Commons Atlas of the World.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Atlas_of_Kurdistan

[2] The Treaty of Sevres was signed on August 10, 1920 that formalized the conclusion of the Ottoman participation in World War I. The agreement took away all the lands of the Ottoman Empire not on the Anatolian Peninsula and provided for a possible Kurdish territory (that did not include Kurds from present-day Syria, Iran, or Iraq). However, the emergence of Mustafa Kemal and of modern day Turkey resulted in the cancellation of a Kurdistan referendum.

[3] In the early fight (2014) against the onslaught by the Islamic State it was the Kurdish Peshmerga that held the line against ISIS while the Iraqi security forces fled and left vast areas of Iraq under ISIS control. U.S. special operations forces (and SOF of other nations) worked closely with the Iraqi Kurds to fend of the Islamic State fighters. Of late, the Kurds in Syria have proven to be very valuable proxy forces for U.S. SOF.