Conflict has enveloped the country of Sudan and U.S. citizens are at risk; many of them seeking to escape the chaos and return to the United States. It is estimated that there are over 16,000 American citizens in Sudan. Some live and work there on a permanent basis. Others traveled there on short-term business trips or were vacationing and visiting family during Ramadan. While many may opt to stay in Sudan and ‘ride it out’; there are thousands who wish to leave – as soon as possible.

The conflict in Sudan (SOF News, Apr 21, 2023) began almost two weeks ago when the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began fighting each other in the streets of the capital city, Khartoum, and across the country. The fighting took place as the country was scheduled to transition to civilian rule. As the situation deteriorated, many nations decided to evacuate their diplomatic staff. Some got their embassy personnel out as well as a number of their citizens.

The United States conducted an evacuation of the U.S. Embassy staff (SOF News, April 22, 2023) during a period of darkness in the early morning of Sunday, April 23rd (Sudan time). U.S. special operations forces landed helicopters at the location of the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum and evacuated around 70 U.S. embassy staff and families along with about 30 other foreign nationals to Djibouti. The extraction was performed within one hour with no casualties or shots fired. The air assets were fixed-wing aircraft from AFSOC, rotary-wing aircraft from the 160th SOAR, and a ground element of U.S. Navy SEALs. There are some reports that members of the 3rd Special Forces Group were involved as well.

Other nations conducted their embassy staff evacuations during this timeframe or within a few days of the U.S. embassy evacuation. In addition, many nations began evacuating their citizens – putting troops on the ground and landing aircraft at various locations to extract their citizens. However, the United States chose not to conduct a large-scale evacuation of U.S. citizens.

U.S. Is Avoiding a Large-Scale Evacuation

The Department of State is citing security concerns, logistical obstacles, and several other reasons for this non-evacuation of AMCITs policy. It also pointed out that State has issued several ‘do not travel’ warnings for Sudan over the past few yeas. In addition, numerous comments have been made by Biden administration spokesmen that have been stressing the ‘dual-citizenship’ status of the thousands of AMCITs in Sudan; many who have settled there permanently.

There are differences in how different nations are handling the evacuation. Compare the U.S. help for its AMCITs with how the British are doing the evacuation of their citizens. Posted on the UK website are these instructions:

“The British Government will help British nationals to leave Sudan from 25 April. Flights leave from Wadi Saeedna airfield (GPS: 15° 48 10 N, 32° 29 32 E; WhatThreeWords: refusals.atom.herds). Please travel to this location as soon as possible to be processed for the flight.”

GOV.UK, April 25, 2023

The current policy of the United States is to help AMCITs from ‘afar’ – by remotely assisting Americans trying to flee the country . This means ‘no boots on the ground’ (BOG) and no U.S. airplanes landing on Sudan soil. So what type of assistance is State offering? For one, the U.S. is providing drone coverage for the main road between Khartoum in the center of the country and Port Sudan on the coast of the Red Sea. This ‘intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance’ (ISR) information will be shared with allies (UK, France, and others) who do have troops on the ground and who are running convoys to Port Sudan. Apparently, the U.S. is coordinating with other nations who are running evac convoys to take along U.S. citizens. In addition, the U.S. has moved (and continues) to move U.S. Navy vessels to the Red Sea in the vicinity of Port Sudan; ships that can help evacuate AMCITs who make it Port Sudan.

The U.S. State Department is offering the following guidance:

U.S. Department of State Travel Advisory for 24 April 2023:
“Situation in Sudan: Information for U.S. Citizens in Sudan”
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/situation-in-sudan-2023.html

U.S. Citizens who would like to be informed of options to leave Sudan as security conditions permit should complete this form.
https://cacms.state.gov/s/crisis-intake

State Department says it will assist any private American citizens in Sudan that make their way to Port Sudan and find a way to get onto a ferry to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Once in Jeddah consular officers in Jeddah are available to assist them. (Reuters, Apr 25, 2023)

Conducting a Large Scale NEO

Does the U.S. have the capability to conduct a large-scale non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO). Of course it does. It has done this successfully many times in the past. In August 2021, over a two week period, the Department of Defense successfully brought out over 70,000 to 80,000 evacuees from the Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) in Afghanistan. The men and women of the various military services performed extremely well under difficult and dangerous circumstances. However, it was a messy and chaotic affair. The State Department got a big black eye on its decisions and performance and the Biden administration took a huge political hit.

The assets available to the U.S. for a NEO are plentiful. There are numerous U.S. Navy and Air Force bases scattered throughout the Middle East and Europe. Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti is about 800 miles (flying) from Khartoum. U.S. Navy vessels are currently positioned in the Red Sea off the coast of Port Sudan and more are in the region.

There are multiple ‘ground elements’ that could undertake or support a NEO in Sudan. These units include the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), The East Africa Response Force (EARF) located at Camp Lemonnier, the 82nd Airborne Division’s Immediate Response Force (IRF), an Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) currently in the Pacific, Special Forces and SEAL units of the Special Operations Command Africa based in Stuttgart, Germany, and other units as well.

Behind the Scenes?

Is the U.S. quietly helping out selected individuals in Sudan? Certainly JSOC and the CIA are not sitting this one out in the embassy compounds and on U.S. military ‘bases’ (small and large) of Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Djibouti, and elsewhere. As in Afghanistan in August 2021, when SOF and the agency had folks going into hostile areas picking up ‘selected’ individuals and bringing them to safety; the same is probably taking place now in Sudan. One wonders if that extra effort is being extended to the typical American family of four from New York City who went to Sudan for a vacation to visit family and got caught up in an unexpected outbreak of hostilities.

What Comes Next?

For the time being, the Biden administration seems content to ‘help from afar’. Hopefully the AMCITs among the 16,000 who are in Sudan and want out, will ‘find their way’ to safety. Most likely, this will happen through the good will, hard work, and bravery of our allies who are ‘on the ground’.

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References:

Sudan NEO, daily log of the conflict in Sudan and evacuation efforts of foreign nationals.
https://www.national-security.info/country/sudan/sudan-neo.html

“U.S. Embassy Staff Evacuated from Khartoum”, SOF News, April 22, 2023
https://sof.news/africa/sudan-embassy-evacuation/

“Crisis in Sudan”, SOF News, April 21, 2023
https://sof.news/africa/sudan-crisis-2023/

On April 22, 2023, Saturday evening (EST), U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) evacuated just under 100 American embassy staff from the Khartoum, Sudan embassy. The evacuation took place at approximately 8:00 pm Saturday evening (Washington, D.C. time), about 3:00 am on Sunday morning (Khartoum time).

Screen capture of FIightaware24 showing presence of AJ-130J Ghostrider over Sudan on Saturday evening, April 23, 2023 (Washington, D.C. time).

Air Activity Over Sudan. OSINT twitters began tweeting about the presence of U.S. aircraft over Sudan on Saturday evening just prior to 8:00 pm (D.C. time). The @air_intel Twitter account reported that a HC-13J and two MC-130Js were over Sudan on Saturday evening. Social media from Sudan announced the presence of U.S. helicopters hovering over the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum (@War_Mapper Twitter). For a short while, Flightradar24 depicted an aircraft flying over Khartoum and labeled it as an AC-130J Ghostrider. There were likely more than one AC-130J in the air during the evacuation operation. It has been reported that three MH-47 Chinook helicopters departed Djibouti at 9 am Eastern on Saturday, landed in Ethiopia to refuel, and then proceeded for three more hours to Khartoum. Some news reports say six aircraft from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR) were used. The air operation was conducted in the early morning hours of Sunday (local time) during periods of darkness by the ‘Night Stalker’ air crews.

On the Ground. According to news reporter Jim LaPorta, elements of the Navy’s SEAL Team Six and the Army’s 3rd Special Forces Group participated in the evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum. Al-Monitor is reporting that the evacuation was conducted by US Navy SEAL Team 6 and Army Special Operations personnel, planned by US Africa Command and Joint Special Operations Command. It has been reported that the personnel were picked up helicopters. In the beginning days of the conflict the embassy personnel were ‘sheltering in place’ in various locations in Khartoum; but gathered at the embassy compound for evacuation by Friday night. The helicopters spent about one hour on the ground in Khartoum. There were a number of DoD assets for a NEO operation in the Sudan region; this being a relatively limited NEO DoD went with a JSOC and some SF elements.

News Announcements of the Evacuation. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced on their Twitter account that they had help coordinate and support the evacuation of the U.S. Embassy staff. It is a matter of speculation exactly how much the RSF actually assisted in the evacuation; the U.S. State Department says the cooperation was minimal. (DoS) Soon other social media accounts and news outlets were sending out bulletins about the evacuation of embassy personnel approximately 9:00 pm (D.C. time).

Flown to Djibouti. The evacuees were flown to Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti where they either were bunked down for the remainder of the early morning or immediately transloaded onto waiting C-17s for a military base in Europe. Camp Lemonnier is a big naval base that at one time housed over 2,500 U.S. military service personnel. The flight of the helicopters from DJ to Sudan and back encompassed 800 miles each way. Among those evacuated were members of the Marine Corps who had been providing security for the embassy on a permanent basis.

Coordination Aspects of NEO. The governments of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia aided the U.S. evacuation operation. The evacuation was under the command of U.S. Africa Command and conducted in close coordination wit the U.S. State Department.

News stories on the Evacuation:

• “US evacuates embassy in Sudan’s capital Khartoum”, Al-Monitor, April 22, 2023.
• “US embassy personnel in Sudan evacuated amid violent conflict”, Fox News, April 22, 2023.
• “US Embassy Staff Evacuated from Sudan”, Voice of America, April 22, 2023.
• “Statement from President Joe Biden on the Situation in Sudan”, White House, April 23, 2023.

Statement by SECDEF: (link)

“Today, at the direction of the President, the U.S. military conducted a successful operation to safely evacuate U.S. government personnel out of Sudan. This action, led by U.S. Africa Command and conducted in close coordination with the U.S. State Department, demonstrates the Department of Defense’s support for our nation’s diplomatic personnel. I’m proud of our extraordinary service members who executed and supported this operation with outstanding precision and professionalism. We also thank our allies and partners, including Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia, which were critical to the success of this operation.”

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin II on Sudan, April 22, 2023

And the American Citizens? The United States has stated that the evacuation was only for U.S. embassy staff. There may be a larger, coalition led operation for the evacuation of foreign nationals. There are approximately 16,000 Americans in Sudan; many of them likely dual-citizens. The Pentagon and State Department are exploring options to make the overland route out of the country more viable. The land route would likely end at Port Sudan where the American citizens could board U.S., partner nation, or contracted ships for a voyage to other locations – possibly Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Inquiries related to U.S. citizens in Sudan should be directed to ACSKhartoum@state.gov. The land route takes approximately 12 hours according to some news sources and it is a dangerous trip that may not provide fuel, water, and food along the route.

DoD Assistance for American Citizens? U.S. Naval vessels from the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet based in Bahrain are being moved to the Red Sea where they will position off the coast near Port Sudan. It was announced (DoS) that a deconfliction cell would be established at the U.S. Africa Command in Stuttgart, Germany to coordinate and support an overland route. DoD will use intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to explore viable and safe land routes for American citizens.

The Department of State has suspended operations at the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum. On the evening of April 22, 2023 it issued another advisory – do not travel to Sudan. It advises those Americans in Sudan to enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) and to review the OSAC Country Security Report for Sudan.

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THIS IS A DEVELOPING STORY AND WILL BE UPDATED AS NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.

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Maps: Derived from CIA maps.

References:

“Crisis in Sudan”, SOF News, April 21, 2023.
Briefing, Department of State, April 22, 2023
Sudan NEO by national-security.info
Maps of Sudan by national-security.info
NEO References by national-security.info

Over the last several days the security situation in Sudan has become worse. There is fighting in the capital city of Khartoum, the airport is closed, hundreds of lives have been lost, and thousands injured. Most of the essentials of living (food, water, electricity, medical care, etc.) are in short supply or no longer available. It is unclear which faction controls what part of the country. The fighting has interrupted what many had hoped would be a peaceful transition to civilian rule in the coming weeks; one that should have started at the beginning of April.

Fight Between Two Warring Parties. The clash between the warring parties began on or about April 14, 2023. The two factions are the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Both commanded by opposing Sudanese generals. In addition, there are a host of other local warlords, militias, and violent groups within Sudan contributing to the chaos. The leaders of both factions have been jockeying for power in the soon to be formed civilian government.

Al-Burhan and SAF. Sudanese President Genearl Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is head of the country’s transitional governing Sovereign Council. Sudanese soldiers are loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (Wikipedia). The situation has been, according to al-Burhan, characterized as a rebellion and coup against the government of Sudan.

Dagalo and RSF. The Rapid Support Forces forces or RSF are led by Vice President General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo; he is deputy head of the Sovereign Council. Dagalo is a former camel herder from the Darfur region and has economic interests in minerals and livestock. The RSF was created in 2013 by former President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. The roots of the RSF can be found in a pro-government Janjaweed militia that was active in Darfur in the early 2000s where a local rebellion was defeated. The RSF also sent fighters to Yemen in the battle against Iran-aligned rebels; on behalf of some Gulf region countries.

Background to the Conflict. The two generals had been sharing power since an October 2021 coup. Disagreements arose over the integration of the Rapid Support Forces into the Sudanese Armed Forces. In addition, members of the Sudanese military feared the loss of control over revenue generating functions in the government and in society with a move to civilian control. Corruption has always played a large role in Sudan. A breakdown of the origins of the current conflict is presented by Jelena Pejic in “The Fighting in Sudan is an Armed Conflict: Here’s What Law Applies”, Just Security, April 20, 2023. The Pejic article also explores the legal status of the SAF and RSF.

Other Actors. There are reports that some regional nations may be providing support to the combatant forces. Egypt is believed to have sent aircraft to Sudan and possibly tanks and military personnel to support the government forces. It has close ties with Sudan’s military as it sees it as an ally against Ethiopia. Some reports indicate that the Russian paramilitary organization – the Wagner Group – could be aiding the RSF (CNN, Apr 21, 2023). The PMC is reported to have operated in Sudan since 2017. Russia would like to set up a small naval contingent in Port Sudan on the Red Sea. In addition, international media sources say that General Dagalo and the RSF are backed by Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar. The United Arab Emirates has close ties with the RSF.

Embassy Staff. Nations around the world are worried about their diplomatic staffs and their nationals that are living and working in Sudan. The United States has Department of State (DoS) embassy personnel that need to be evacuated but no attempt has been made thus far. DoS is instructing embassy personnel to ‘shelter in place’. The Department of State says it has ‘full accountability’ of its embassy personnel.

U.S. Citizens. Thousands of U.S. citizens who live or work in Sudan are in danger as well; many of them dual citizens. There are reports that at least one American citizen has died in the violence (according to DoS). It is impossible to leave the country by air as the Khartoum International Airport is closed due to battle damage and battles occurring on or near the airport. The State Department has stated that it is not safe to undertake a U.S. government coordinated evacuation of private American citizens at this time. There are about 19,000 Americans in Sudan. A Department of State spokesman ‘waffled’ a bit on April 20th when asked by journalists at a press conference if the U.S. was prepared or planning to evacuate U.S. citizens who were not embassy employees.

Refugees, Displaced Civilians, and Humanitarian Issues. Thousands of Sudanese, most from the Darfur region (Wikipedia), have fled to neighboring countries; many to Chad (CIA map). They are traveling along the roads as air travel is nonexistent in Sudan at this time. There are reports that Sudan’s southern border with Chad has been closed. Many Sudanese have fled the areas of the fighting for safer regions of Sudan. They are suffering from lack of shelter and food. Delivery of humanitarian supplies by international organizations has been extremely curtained due to the security situation.

U.S. Response. Up to now, the United States response to the crisis has been to encourage the two opponents to cease hostilities and to engage regional powers close to Sudan to use their influence to end the conflict. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken with (DoS) the two generals leading the forces in the conflict; asking for a ceasefire. Thus far, the diplomatic efforts have been a failure; at least from what can be gleaned from open source news reports.

International Response. Countries around the world are weighing in on the conflict – using their influence to negotiate a ceasefire and end to the hostilities. The United Nations has been very active in attempts to bring an end to the conflict as well. Germany and Norway made some initial attempts to evacuate embassy personnel but these did not pan out. Some other nations are positioning forces in the region (aircraft, etc.) but they have not entered Sudan as of yet. Most of the international response has been public comments and diplomacy behind the scenes.

Ceasefire. Two cessations to the fighting have occurred, but both were unsuccessful. There is hope that another ceasefire will take place over the Eid al-Fitr celebrations. This would allow citizens to escape the conflict zones, receive medical care, and find food and shelter. The U.S. Department of State said on April 20th (DoS) that the “24-hour ceasefire announced on April 19th has mostly held.” The statement that the ceasefire ‘has mostly held’ has been questioned by many observers of the conflict. The Department of State is hoping that the ceasefire can be extended (DoS) to Sunday, April 23rd, which would be the end of Eid.

NEO. At this point, the United States has determined that it can’t evacuate its embassy staff or any of the thousands of American citizens. That is, until the security situation improves. At some point, the United States may decide to conduct a non-combatant evacuation operation. A Sudan NEO would most likely be preceded with some intense negotiations between the United States and the two warring factions to ensure that the U.S. does not get dragged into a civil war. It is unlikely that the United States would conduct a ‘forcible entry’ into the airport.

Khartoum International Airport. The largest airport in Sudan, Khartoum International Airport (Wikipedia), is located in the capital city. As of April 20th it was closed to air traffic. Media reports indicate that the airport was a target of heavy shelling with destroyed airplanes on the runways and ramps.

U.S. Forces Moving. The U.S. is currently positioning military forces and assets at Camp Lemonnier (Wikipedia) in the country of Djibouti (CIA map). Camp Lemonnier is usually home to about 2,500 service members who belong to Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA). This TF conducts a variety of operations in the Horn of Africa region. Forces in Djibouti are about 1,000 miles distant (1,700 kilometers); about a 4 hour and 40 minute flight. Camp Lemonnier is the best location from which to stage a NEO and to where evacuees would first be sent before their onward movement to another location.

U.S. Future Actions? The current administration has still not recovered from the chaotic Afghanistan non-combatant evacuation operation (Afghan War News) conducted in August 2021. One hopes that the Department of State has learned a few lessons since then. If it decides to conduct a NEO then hopefully the planning has already been done and the Department of Defense is ready to execute it.

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Maps: Derived from maps by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).