The 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) has been published by the Department of Defense. The NDS details the DoD’s path into the next decade. The new publication is a result of the DoD conducting its strategic reviews – the National Defense Strategy, the Nuclear Posture Review, and the Missile Defense Review in an integrated fashion.

The Nuclear Posture Review reaffirms that as long as nuclear weapons exist, the fundamental role of U.S. nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack on the United States and its allies and partners. The Missile Defense Review undermines a potential foe’s confidence in its ability to mount a successful nuclear attack.

The NDS cites the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the pacing challenge for the DoD. It sees the PRC as the most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades. China is viewed as the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and the power to do so.

Russia is a competitor as well, and its recent aggression against Ukraine shows that it can be a cause of major instability. Russia can’t systemically challenge the United States over the long term – but it does pose an immediate threat to U.S. interests and values. Russia has emerged at the worst threat to European security since the end of the World War II.

The actions of both China and Russia reinforce the importance of allies and partners around the world. North Korea and Iran also pose threats. North Korea’s expanding nuclear and missile capabilities are worrisome. Iran is moving ahead with its nuclear program and it supports dangerous armed proxies in the Middle East. The NDS explains the concept of integrated deterrence – using every tool at the DoD’s disposal in close collaboration with counterparts in the U.S. government and with partners and allies.

Table of Contents:

• Introduction
• Security Environment
• Defense Priorities
• Integrated Deterrence
• Campaigning
• Allies and Partners – Advancing Regional Goals
• Force Planning
• Building Enduring Advantages
• Risk Management
• Conclusion
• 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
• 2022 Missile Defense Review

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2022 National Defense Strategy, Department of Defense, October 2022, PDF, 80 pages.
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF

On March 23, 2020 the United States Marine Corps published its Force Design 2030. The 15-page document provides a roadmap ahead for the Marine Corps with major changes to mission and organization. Naturally, a document of this importance will be of interest to those who follow the activities of Marine Forces Special Operations Command or MARSOC.

There are some sweeping changes to come for the Marine Corps. The Corps is tasked with the role of the nation’s naval expeditionary force-in-readiness while at the same time modernizing in accordance with the latest National Defense Strategy (NDS). This institutional change will be done with the fiscal resources provided – meaning some structure has to be sacrificed. The Design Force 2030 report explains the reasons for the change, the methodology used to determine the changes, and how the force will be reorganized.

The force will be redesigned for naval expeditionary warfare and to be a force that can focus on its role in the competition with Russia and China. Higher echelon units will be reorganized and get smaller. Some units and military occupational specialties will be eliminated. The force will decrease in size by about 12,000 personnel.

Force Structure Changes – Divestment

• three infantry battalions
• tanks (support to be provided by the U.S. Army)
• three heavy helicopter squadrons
• three medium-lift tiltrotor squadrons
• two (?) light attack helicopter squadrons
• two AA companies & AAV and ACV requirements
• three law enforcement battalions
• Marine Wing Support Groups
• three bridging companies

Force Structure Changes – Investment

• additional rocket artillery batteries
• additional Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
• expansion of training and education

There are other changes that might be made in the future. The USMC is looking at a redesign of the infantry battalion, emerging naval expeditionary force formations, littoral maneuver and sustainment, increase in light armored reconnaissance, MEU redesign, and the 18 VMFA squadrons.

MARSOC and Force Design 2030

“Force design places new demands on our FMF that require us to revisit our current manpower policies supporting MARSOC. We must develop assignment policies that continue to satisfy MARSOC personnel requirements while ensuring appropriate rotation of personnel in and out of MARSOC. Any change to the current policies should not limit MARSOC’s ability to recruit, assess and develop relationships and candidates, in coordination with FMF units and leaders. Recommended changes to policy should ensure Marines remain competitive for promotion and have broad opportunities for assignment within the Marine Corps and the joint force.”

Page 11, Force Design 2030, USMC, March 2020

MARSOF 2030

The above paragraph in quotes is the only mention of MARSOC in the Force Design 2030 paper. However, there is a document published that may provide additional fidelity to how MARSOC will look like in the future. In March 2018 the Marines published a report entitled MARSOF 2030. The document provides a roadmap for MARSOC to be relevant in the current and future operating environment.

MARSOF 2030 identifies four interconnected and mutually supporting themes that will provide a strong conceptual basis for a future MARSOC.

• MARSOF as a Connector
• Combined Arms for the Connected Arena
• The Cognitive Operator
• Enterprise Level Agility

The MARSOF document provides a couple of pages to explain each of the above themes. It then provides two “operational vignettes” that help us imagine the four concepts listed above. One is a fictional account of a Marine SOF team deployed in West Africa in 2028 that is part of an effort to support a struggling host government. The second vignette depicts a Special Operations Task Force (SOTF) operations center in the Middle East in 2030. The document ends with implementation guidance.

The MARSOF 2030 paper was published before the current National Defense Strategy (NDS) was published that moved our focus from counterinsurgency and counterterrorism to competition with near peer adversaries (China, Russia, etc.). However, it is forward looking in its approach. It remains to be seen what type of changes MARSOC will make with the publishing of Force Design 2030.

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References:

Force Design 2030, United States Marine Corps, March 2020 (pdf, 15 pages)
Read or download the report here.

MARSOF 2030: A Strategic Vision for the Future, Special Operations Command – United States Marine Corps Forces, March 2018. (pdf, 23 pages)
Read or download the report here.

New U.S. Marine Corps Force Design Initiatives, Congressional Research Service (CRS), March 26, 2020, pdf, 4 pages.
Read or download the report here.

Transgenders in Military? President Donald Trump has made the decision that the United States military will not be accepting or allowing transgender individuals to serve in any capacity in the U.S. military. Trump says that the military must be focused on decisive and overwhelming victory and cannot be burdened with the tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgenders in the military would entail. Read his tweets on Twitter from July 26, 2017 below:

It appears that the days of social experimentation in the U.S. military may be on hold for a few years.

National Security and Defense News – JSTARS, Syria, Iran, Iraq, fixing the Navy, fighting terrorism, counterinsurgency, state-building, foreign policy, and more.

JSTARS Over the Middle East. One reporter, Eric Schmitt, recently spent some time with the Air Force visiting a flying unit with the E-8C Joint Surveillance Target attack Radar System (JSTARS). Read “Aboard a U.S. Eye in the Sky, Staring Down ISIS in Iraq and Syria“, The New York Times, December 25, 2016.

Trump and Syria – What to do?. One can only wonder where U.S. policy will lead us in the Syrian conflict. While we are currently working with some rebel Syrian groups and the Kurdish YPG – that level of support may grow or diminish. Some want us to walk away from Syria saying the resistance to the Assad regime is too fragmented. Others (Turkey included) would like us to abandon the Kurds. Many worry about an escalation of the conflict with the Russians. What should be done? Frederic C. Hof provides some advice to the President-Elect in “Advising Trump on Syria”, The Atlantic Council, January 3, 2017.

Fighting Terrorism with the next President. Daniel Byman says that terrorism is here to stay and that it has evolved and “. . . counterterrorism must change to keep pace . . . ” requiring the U.S. to “reorient its counterrorism focus.” He goes on to say that “. . . the most effective counterterrorism effort could be fostering better governance in troubled parts of the Middle East.” In his extensive essay he describes the current and future terrorist threat and provides recommendations in “How to Fight Terrorism in the Donald Trump Era”, The National Interest, December 25, 2016.

Incoming Presidents and U.S. Foreign Policy. The concept of ‘nation building’ is a negative topic for newly-elected presidents but many fall victim to “America’s civil religion” of overseas engagement. Read “A History of U.S. Foreign Affairs in Which Grandiose Ambitions Trump Realism”, The New York Times, December 27, 2016.

Fixing the Navy. For one thing – getting rid of the ‘blueberries’ is a step forward. Beyond that the Navy needs to reverse some of the disastrous decisions of Secretary Mabus. Read more in “To Fix the Department of the Navy – Kill the Mabus Legacy”, Small Wars Journal, January 2, 2017.

Iran Expansion of Naval Power. It appears that Iran is seeking to expand its reach by way of the oceans. It is planning on building naval bases in Yemen (a fierce fight going on between Saudi and Iranian proxy forces in that country) and Syria (yet another proxy fight). Read more in “Iran’s Growing Naval Ambitions”, Foreign Affairs, January 1, 2017.

Too Much COIN? Not Enough? The U.S. military has spent the last decade and a half fighting counterinsurgencies – principally in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some senior military leaders worry that we became to “COIN Centric” and ignored conventional warfighting skills. Others say we need to keep COIN as a central function of the military because that is the most likely type of conflict we will face in the immediate future. Read a 98-page report on the topic in “The COIN Conundrum: The Future of Counterinsurgency and U.S. Land Power”, Strategic Studies Institute, December 14, 2016.

Statebuilding – Lessons Learned. In February 2010 the U.S. announced with great fanfare that it would re-take (along with Afghan forces) the district of Marjah in Helmand province. Once the Taliban were cleared the Afghan’s would move a “Government-In-A-Box” into the district to re-establish governance, police, development, services, and security. It didn’t work out so well. Read more in “A Better Approach to Statebuilding”, Foreign Affairs, January 2, 2017.

Females and Marine Boot Camp. The Marines will soon have females in combat arms military occupational specialties. Read more in “The First Female Infantry Marines Will Graduate Boot Camp This Month”, Task & Purpose, January 2, 2017.

The Department of Defense has divided the world up into regional areas of responsibility – each region designated as a combatant command. These regions are provided command and control organizations and led by four-star general (or admirals) officers. The Combatant Commands are:

United States Africa Command (AFRICOM)
United States Central Command (CENTCOM)
United States European Command (EUCOM)
United States Northern Command (NORTHCOM)
United States Pacific Command (PACOM)
United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)

Additional Joint Commands include:

United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM)
United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM)
United States Transportation Command (TRANSCOM)

Each of the combatant commands have sub-commands to include theater special operations commands – SOCAFRICA, SOCCENT, SOCEUR, SOCNORTH, SOCPAC, and SOCSOUTH.

Source: “Unified Command Plan”, U.S. Department of Defense.

2016 – “The Year That Was”. A collection of articles that look back at 2016 in terms of national security, defense, Middle East, Afghanistan, India, Africa, books, war, conflict, and . . . of course . . . special operations.

Middle East in 2016

The Middle East . . .  Read more in “The Year that Was in the Middle East”, Lawfare, December 21, 2016. See also “Brookings expert’s takes on the biggest Middle East stores of 2016”, Brookings, December 28, 2016.

Syria. Russia (as well as Iran) embraced Syria and saved the Assad regime – one of its (Russia) best achievements was using its SOF and airpower to help capture Aleppo. The U.S. has been sidelined, a peace treaty negotiated in late December, and the Syrian Kurds are wondering when the U.S. will sell them out (as has happened many times before).

Iraq. ISOF has taken a leading role in the capture of Mosul (and previously other cities as well) but suffered 50% casualties in the 1st phase of the Mosul campaign. The tide has turned against the Islamic State as it suffers from territorial losses but the conflict with ISIS is far from over. The Kurds of Iraq are looking at a more autonomous future but it isn’t assured.

Turkey. A failed-coup, purging of many of its senior military officers, intervention in Syria (a defense against Kurdish gains), and a drift from the U.S. and NATO.

Yemen. If there was a conflict off the radar it is the one in Yemen. Activity of U.S. SOF in Yemen seems on again and off again. Our national interest, military and political objectives, and commitment seems to be either unknown or misunderstood by many. However, the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Penisula (AQAP) organization is considered extremely dangerous (in terms of striking the homeland) and U.S. drone strikes in Yemen against al-Qaida continue. To that end (it seems) the U.S. is supporting the Saudi coalition fighting the Houthi rebels (who are supported by Iran).

Jordan. Three Green Berets lost their lives in an armed attack by a gunmen in November. They were members of 5th Special Forces Group from Fort Campbell, Kentucky. Jordan is a close ally and one of the more stable Middle East countries.

South Asia in 2016

South Asia. Things don’t seem to be getting better in this part of the world. Afghanistan is still a mess and the India-Pakistan conflict may be heating up again.

Afghanistan – 2016 and Upcoming Challenges. For Afghanistan, 2016 was another year of good and bad. On a good note the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have stayed loyal to the government, have not collapsed with the withdrawal of most of the Coalition forces from Afghanistan, and continue to improve in some functional areas. The government revenue – strangely – went up from taxes and other revenue sources. However, there is lots that has gone sour. The National Unity Government of Ghani and Abdullah can be counted as a failure and the Afghan security forces made no headway in degrading or defeating the Taliban. The Taliban control more territory since 2001. The Taliban mounted offensives in several areas of the country including Kunduz, Uruzgan, Farah, and Helmand province. Read “Challenges and Opportunities for Afghanistan in 2017”, The Diplomat, December 29, 2016.

Afghan Special Security Forces (ASSF). The one bright spot about the conflict in Afghanistan has been the performance of the special operations kandaks of the Ministry of Defense and the special police units of the Ministry of Interior like the Crisis Response Unit (CRU). The Afghan government is seeking U.S. funding to expand the Afghan Local Police (ALP) from 30,000 to 40,000 – if the Afghans can institute the needed ALP reforms this could happen (a positive thing). There is something to be said about having competent Train, Advise, and Assist (TAA) teams working on a daily basis with tactical units. Unfortunately, the U.S. special forces community was hit hard with SF casualties this year in Afghanistan. Killed were Green Berets from 1st, 3rd, 7th, 10th, and 19th Special Forces Group.

India – Year in Review. India’s SOF units were busy and the military forces (including SOF) saw steps toward modernization. Read “From surgical strike to 80 martyred personnel, 2016 a mixed year for Army”, Business Standard, December 29, 2016.

Pakistan. A continuing thorn in the side of India (Kashmir) and a direct threat to Afghanistan (support of Haqqani Network and Taliban) – Pakistan also suffers from terrorism. Some would say a ‘self-inflicted wound’. Read more in “Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Failures”, Gandhara Blog (Radio Free Europe), December 29, 2016.

Africa in 2016

AFRICOM’s Top Stories in 2016. The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) has had a busy year. Read more in “Year in Review – AFRICOM’s tops stories in 2016”, United States Africa Command, December 28, 2016. Poaching has emerged as a big issue – this problem never seems to go away and the U.S. is taking (perhaps half-hearted) some efforts to assist in the anti-poaching effort. China seems intent on continuing its presence in Africa and its military base in Djibouti (next to the French and U.S. base) should assist it in this objective. But what has AFRICOM’s attention is the Islamic State, Boko Haram, and Al-Shabaab . . . and to a lesser extent . . . the LRA. AFRICOM has big plans for the next year – see “New in 2017: Bigger exercises, more engagements in Africa”, Army Times, December 29, 2016.

SOCAFRICA Spread Thin. AFRICOM’s special operations component that handles SOF missions and operations for the African continent has been extremely busy. With 54 countries on the continent there is a lot of area to cover. There is lots of terrorist activity, security training and cooperation, and JCETs to occupy SOCAFRICA.

Everyone is in the Fight. MARSOC FID teams and 3rd Special Forces Group teams have had a leading role in SOCAFRICA’s operations, exercises, JCETs, and training events. 10th Special Forces Group has a piece of North Africa (heads up the FLINTLOCK annual exercise, which is a far cry from the FLINTLOCKs of old that took place in Germany in the 60s and 70s). 19th Special Forces Group stays busy with JCETs and exercises in Africa as well. 20th Special Forces Group heads up the effort against the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) as they fill the ranks of SOCFWD-CA. NSW and AFSOC are also spread across the continent. Lots of former SOF have found some meaningful contract work in Somalia, Kenya, and other African locations working for SOCAFRICA, AFRICOM, or other governmental agencies.

Somalia. There is a U.S. SOF presence in Somalia – sort of a ‘shadow war’. In 2016 the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) made progress in its operations against al Shabaab. However, Ethiopia (a member of AMISOM) has been withdrawing its troops and the AMISOM mission may come to a close. Some former SOF are working in a contract basis there and the State Department may be stepping up its involvement soon.

Libya. The U.S. (and other European allies) have quietly assisted various factions in Libya to defeat the Islamic State enclave in Sirte with airpower (Navy fix-wing and Marine Cobras took part), ISR, and SOF on the ground. A big question is what happens next in Libya. Can a strong central government (Government of National Accord in Libya) emerge that can reconcile the various political entities and militias? In order to do that a strong security force has to be built that is professional, non-political, and competent. Certainly a classic Security Force Assistance (SFA) mission ideal for European nations like Britain and Italy (with a little help from U.S. SOF).

Nigeria & Lake Chad Basin. SOCAFRICA has been in the fight against Boko Haram – probably one of the most dangerous groups in the world at this time. U.S. SOF and conventional units as well have provided assistance to Niger, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Chad to develop a unified effort against this terrorist and insurgent group. Exercises like FLINTLOCK continue to improve the regional cooperation among various African military organizations in this part of Africa. Nigeria’s attempt to buy the A-29 Super Tucano counterinsurgency aircraft from the United States failed and it is now in talks with Russia and Pakistan for a viable close air support fixed wing aircraft. While AFRICOM says Boko Haram is weakened it is still a threat.

Uganda Region. SOCFWD-CA’s mission continues against the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Although its ranks have been severely diminished it still has managed to survive. In October 2011 a 100-man U.S. Army Special Forces contingent deployed to help defeat Joseph Kony and his vicious band. A good information operations campaign (MISO folks can count this as a success) encouraging LRA fighters to defect (“come home”) has helped reduce the ranks of the LRA.

Other Spots. We won’t go into Ethiopia, Kenya and other locations.

Terrorism in 2016

The Big Two. The two biggest terrorist organizations currently posing a threat to U.S interests are the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Both have done well in mastering the information domain or terrorist use of social media. In addition they continue to pose a long-term threat to the U.S. homeland as well as to our allies on the European continent. A big part of the U.S. strategy is to target the leaders of these groups and to deny them sanctuary where they can plan, prepare, and launch attacks against U.S. interests.

A Resurgent al-Qaeda. The Islamic State is getting a lot of press. Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, seems content with staying off the radar screen. Publicity draws counter terrorism resources. The terrorist organization was severely hurt during the post-9/11 decade and, in part, replaced by the Islamic State in many areas of the world. But al-Qaeda is making a come-back. Read more in “A more dangerous long-term threat: Al-Aaida grows as ISIS retreats”, The Guardian, December 29, 2016. See also Bruce Hoffman’s (Georgetown University) article “Al Qaeda: Quietly and Patiently Rebuilding”, The Cipher Brief, December 30, 2016.

Islamic State in Decline? ISIS has seen its territory in Iraq reduced significantly. It has taken some losses in Syria as well (thanks to the Syrian Kurds). Libyan government and militia factions have chased ISIS out of Sirte, Libya (wonder where they went to?), and the ISIS footholds in Afghanistan have been reduced (by U.S. drones, U.S. SOF, ANASF, and the Taliban). But ISIS is adaptive and will still be around for a long time. While progress has been made some critics are hesitant to declare victory. See Rita Katz’s article “2016 in Review: Barack Obama’s War on the Islamic State has Failed”, INSITE Blog on Terrorism & Extremism, December 30, 2016.

How to Fight Terrorism in 2017? Matthew Olsen, former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, was recently (Dec 30) interviewed by The Cipher Brief on how to confront terrorism over the next year.

Defense Topics in 2016

DoD’s Top 10 Issues in 2016. The U.S. Department of Defense published a report that highlighted the Defense Department’s top ten issues for 2016. They included delivering ISIL a lasting defeat, building the force of the future, rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region, standing with our European allies, thinking outside the five-sided box, Resolute Support for Afghan security forces, investing for the future, recognizing our best, a new generation of defense leaders, and taking care of our people. See 2016 Year in Review, Department of Defense, December 22, 2016.

Gender Integration. Putting women into combat training and combat units and the integration of females into SOF has had mixed results. While three women graduated from the demanding Ranger School in 2015 – it appears that none have achieved the coveted Green Beret or SEAL Trident. The Marines gender integration plan seems uncertain as well.

Navy. According to one observer NAVSPECWARCOM continues to wield a disproportionate amount of influence within the SOF community – especially at USSOCOM. On a positive note the Sailors no longer have to wear those ‘blueberry’ uniforms that so effectively camouflage those who venture overboard. Former SEALs continue their leading role in the entertainment business with more movies, TV documentaries, books, and speaking engagements as a result of their past successful exploits like the Bin Ladin operation.

2016 is Another Big Year for SOF. The nature of conflict over the past several years and most likely into the foreseeable future has seen an increased use of special operations forces in the ‘Gray Zone’. Using SOF and drones helped keep the Obama administration from putting ‘boots on the ground’ in many of the overseas conflicts. Read more in SOF, Obama, and the Light Footprint. Of course, the U.S. isn’t the only nation to use special operations forces effectively. Our SOF allies can be found fighting alongside U.S. SOF in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and a few other places. And, of course, Russia has its SOF units working hard in Crimea, Ukraine, and Syria as a component of their strategy of political warfare.

NATO: Aghanistan, Russia, and Immigration. NATO reaffirmed its support for Afghanistan with positive outcomes from the Brussels Conference (fall) and Warsaw Summit (summer). The Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan will continue until 2020. In addition, NATO has been occupied with the potential threat of Russia to the Ukraine, Poland, and Baltic States. Finland, Norway, and Sweden are feeling the pressure. NATO is responding with an increase of NATO exercises in Eastern Europe and positioning of NATO units forward into Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Conventional forces stationed forward may help but NATO needs to increase its ability to stem the use of hybrid warfare by Russia. Immigration is a side issue with implications for maritime assets of NATO.

Intelligence in 2016

Biggest Spy Stories of the Year. Intelnews.org brings us the “Year in review: The 10 biggest spy-related stories of 2016”, December 29, 2016. Russia’s military intelligence organization is making a comeback – see “The GRU: Putin’s No-Longer-So-Secret Weapon”, The Daily Beast, 31 Dec 2016.

Other Topics in 2016

“War on the Rocks” and 13 Defining Developments of 2016. #1 – Taliban comeback, #2 – North Korea and nuclear development, #3 – chaos in Venezuela, #4 – Britain exit from EU, #5 – COP21 agreement, #6 – Boko Haram in Nigeria and humanitarian crisis, #7 – Philippines shift away from U.S. and towards China, #8 – Yemen’s forgotten war, #9 – Trump victory over Clinton, #10 – TPP failure, #11 – chance of peace in Colombia, #12 – South Korean politics, #13 – advantage to Assad regime. Read more on these topics in an end of year article by Ali Wyne – a fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Center on International Security in “Thirteen Developments That Defined 2016”, War on the Rocks, December 30, 2016.

Best Books of 2016. Foreign Affairs “The Best Books of 2016” lists their best academic and non-fiction books of the past year, posted December 9, 2016.

FRONTLINE. A documentary channel of Public Broadcasting System (PBS) has listed its ten most popular documentaries of 2016. A few of them are worth mentioning – #2 – “Saudi Arabia Uncovered”, #3 – “The Secret History of ISIS”, #7 – “Netanyahu at War”, and #9 – “Confronting ISIS”.

Did I Slight Anyone? Probably. SOF is busy all over the world. One only has to take a glance at the 2016 Fact Book published by the United States Special Operations Command to realize the extent of SOF’s commitment world wide. Not mentioned in this article are the contributions by Special Forces ODAs (from 1st, 7th, 19th and 20th SFGA), CA, PSYOP (or perhaps MISO is a more modern term), Rangers, Army SOF aviation, MARSOC, NSW, and AFSOC to SOCSOUTH and SOCPAC. Equally important ‘indirect SOF missions’ that achieve strategic national objectives in the western hemisphere and Pacific region.

2017? Should be another interesting year. U.S. Special Operations Forces will continue to be engaged around the world in conflicts and training events. A new administration is taking charge and it will soon develop its approach to the use of hybrid warfare by Russia (someones playing chess while we play checkers), the persistent terrorist threat, and expansion of Chinese influence in the Pacific.

Australia faces a decision point. With the impending defeat of the Islamic State in Mosul, Iraq there may be a push to declare “Mission Accomplished” and withdraw Australia’s support and commitment in fighting ISIS in the Middle East. However, some observers say that Australia should stay the course.

Ash Collingburn writes in The Strategist for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that it is in Australia’s national interests to make a long-term commitment to the Middle East. He states that the Islamic State won’t be defeated once Mosul is liberated – that the fight will continue against ISIS throughout the Middle East.

Collingburn lists four critical enablers that ISIS draws strength from: environmental factors, military capability, information operations, and economic power. These enablers constitute a ‘system’ – and nations opposing ISIS need to harness all the instruments of national power to defeat ISIS.

Even after the defeat of Mosul the Islamic State will still retain a significant amount of real estate. It has a robust presence in western Iraq and eastern Syria – the heartland of the Sunni population. It continues to recruit foreign fighters and acquire funding from wealthy patrons in the Middle East. And . . . it hasn’t completely lost the support of many Sunni in the Middle East.

The article by Collingburn provides some recommendations. One is to conduct a strategy review of how the Islamic State can threaten Australia. Another provides a viewpoint of how to look at the threat – “Deep (Middle East)”, “Close (SE Asia)”, and “Rear (home)”.

Ash Collingburn is a visiting fellow at ASPI’s Counter Terrorism Policy Centre. You can read his paper at “After Mosul: Australia’s long-term counterterrorism strategy”, The Strategist, December 20, 2016.

Defense News 20161221 – Sirte, Libya now liberated, Trump’s Generals, and more.

Sirte, Libya Liberated. It appears that the U.S. Department of Defense is declaring victory in Libya over the ousting of the Islamic State from Sirte, Libya. A campaign by the Government of National Accord (GNA) (with a little help from European and U.S. SOF and airpower) has been successful after many long months of fighting. U.S. Africa Command was responsible for the support provided by the United States in Operation Odyssey Lightning. U.S. DoD News, December 19, 2016.

The Generals of the Trump Administration. The liberals and democrats are a bit uneasy over the number of retired generals selected by President-Elect Trump to head up cabinet level positions. So what do we know about these military men? Read “Trump’s Generals: How Wartime Service Shaped Mattis, Kelly, & Flynn”, Breaking Defense, December 19, 2016.