Afghan Update 20170108 – Russia and the Taliban – things that make you go “Hmmmm”, development aid and COIN in Afghanistan, Afghan militias – the good and the bad, why the U.S. should stay committed to Afghanistan, and more.

Russia and Our Enemy. Putin and his cronies are not losing any opportunities to – in any way possible – make life difficult for the United States. ISIS in the Khorasan is of great concern to Russia and it sees the Taliban as a force to keep ISIS at bay and away from the Central Asian states that border Russia. In addition, Russia sees opportunities in improving its relationship with Pakistan – big supporters of the Taliban. As a result Russia is now taking an active role in advancing the cause of the Taliban. Abdullah Sharif, a former U.S. diplomat and book author, explains more “Russia and the Taliban: Strange and Worrisome Bedfellows”, The Huffington Post, January 5, 2017.

Afghanistan – Beyond 2016. “To protect American interests, the incoming Trump administration should maintain civilian and military assistance to Afghanistan over time, says Scott Worden, director of Afghanistan and Central Asia programs for the U.S. Institute of Peace.” Watch a 2-min long video narrated by Scott expanding on the previous quote in Passing the Baton 2017: America’s Role in the World, January 5, 2017, posted on YouTube.com by the United States Institute of Peace.

CERP and COIN – Did it work? When the ‘big surge’ of 33,000 additional U.S. troops went into Afghanistan in 2010 (they left in 2012) a lot of development aid money went in as well. Much of this money was spent through the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP). A doctoral student, Renard Sexton, has penned an article on the usefulness of CERP. His findings can be summed up with – 1) CERP was useful where security had been established and 2) CERP was less useful and sometimes led to higher levels of violence in districts that were contested. Read “Did U.S. aid win hearts and minds in Afghanistan? Yes and no.”, The Washington Post, January 6, 2017.

Afghan Militias. The Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) is supporting many of the militias found in Afghanistan. Some of these militias are genuine ‘popular uprisings’ – however most of these local armed groups belong to entrenched strongmen, power brokers, drug lords, criminal patronage networks, and political groups. Other militias exist outside of the support of the NDS. And then . . . there is the Afghan Local Police (ALP). Of course, there are different types of ALP. There is the ‘official ALP’ controlled by the Ministry of Interior (MoI) and under the supervision of Provincial Chiefs of Police (PCoPs) and there are other groups that call themselves ALP in a quest for legitimacy but fall outside of MoI’s control. Many of these local militias oppose the Taliban and are allied with the central government – for now. But historically some have posed dangers to the Kabul government. Read more in Laura Cesaretti’s piece entitled “Afghanistan’s Militias: The Enemy Within?”, The Diplomat, January 4, 2017.

SOF News Update. The fracturing of the Arab world, US asks India for military assistance in Afghanistan, the grinding fight against ISIS in Libya, and more.

How the Arab World Came Apart. Scott Anderson has provided us with a very comprehensive report on how the Arab world has fractured since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The invasion led to the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) and a global refugee crisis. The article explores the countries of Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iraq, and the region of Kurdistan. Read “Fractured Lands: How the Arab World Came Apart”, The New York Times Magazine, August 11, 2016.

U.S. Asks India for Help. The commander of Resolute Support Headquarters in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson, has asked India for military assistance in the Afghan conflict. Much of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) use Russian-made weaponry. However, Western sanctions against Russia has lead to a shortage of these weapons and spare parts for the weapons systems (Mi-17 helicopters for example). Read more in “US General Asks India for Military Assistance in Afghanistan”, Defense News, August 11, 2016.

Libya Update. In late 2014 members of the Islamic State began to arrive in Sirte, Libya (on the coast) – many of them arriving from Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and some North African countries as well. ISIS was able to fill a void caused by strife between two government factions. Read an account of the fighting from the standpoint of one of the many militias opposing ISIS in “The Grinding Fight to Root Out ISIS in a Battered Libya”, The New Yorker, August 10, 2016.

SOF Advising Do’s and Don’ts. Retired Green Beret and counterinsurgency expert Roger Carstens points out some very valid points about special operations forces providing advice and training to proxy forces in Syria. Read an article by Eli Lake entitled “Orders for U.S. Forces in Syria: ‘Don’t Get Shot'”, Bloomberg View, August 11, 2016.

Italian SOF in Libya. A very short article about “Italian Special Forces in Libya training mission”, Aen Politics, August 10, 2016. See a longer article entitled “Italy Reportedly Sends Special Forces to Libya”, Defense News,  August 11, 2016.

1st SFG Combatives Team Wins. The 1st Group fighters were the overall winner of the Joint Base Lewis-McChord Combatives Tournament held August 2-4,2016. Read more in a news report by the JBLM Northwest Guardian, August 11, 2016.

Green Beret Provides Advice to NE Patriots. An NFL team has been seeking the advice of a retired LTC who served with Special Forces. Read more in a news report dated August 11, 2016.

Ukraine Special Forces Providing Intel. The Special Forces units of the Ukraine are spilling the secrets of Vladimir Putin’s military machine to intelligence services of western nations. Read more in a news report by The Mirror, August 11, 2016.

AFSOC Looking at High-Tech Weaponry for Gunship. The Ghostrider Gunship may be getting a high-energy laser as a weapons system. Read more in “Special Ops Eyes Hi-Tech Weaponry for Ghostrider Gunship”, Aviation Week Network, August 12, 2016/

Marines New Look at Warfare. The days of counterinsurgency are in the past – or at least some in the Marine Corps thinks so. For my part, I am not so sure. At the end of every conflict the U.S. military says “COIN is dead” – our future wars will be different. And, without fail, we soon find ourselves embroiled in another counterinsurgency. The Marine Corps top uniformed official, General Robert Neller, wants the Corps to shift away from COIN and prepare for events that mirror recent conflicts in Eastern Europe and Syria. Hmmmm. Read more in “Marine Corps Shifts Tactics for Future Wars”, by Dave Majumdar, Warrior,  August 10, 2016.

What Motivates People to Join ISIS? Not only does the Islamic State have success in recruiting fighters to Syria and Iraq to join its forces but the group has had success in recruiting in Afghanistan, Libya and other locations. In addition, it has managed to sway citizens of European nations (the U.S. as well) to conduct terrorist attacks in the name of ISIS. One article posted recently looks “. . . at the factors that motivate people to leave home and join faraway wars.” Read “Why So Many Foreign Fighters Flock to ISIS”,  Defense One, August 10, 2016.

U.S. Military Readiness Better than Some Think. David Petraeus and Michael O’Hanlon have penned an opinion piece that says sequestration cuts have presented challenges but that America’s fighting forces remain second to none. Read “The Myth of a U.S. Military ‘Readiness’ Crisis”, The Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2016.