News Update on the Afghan War 20161228 – Celebrated Afghan female Air Force pilot chooses to seek asylum in the United States, regional powers ‘threatened’ by Afghan insecurity, disposition of junk Afghan military vehicles, Taliban peace talks sabotaged by Pakistan, and more.

Regional Powers to Meet in Moscow. Russia is hosting a meeting with China and Pakistan on the ‘gradually growing threat’ posed to their borders by Islamic State extremists in Afghanistan. ISIS has established a foothold in the eastern regions of Afghanistan – principally in the provinces of Nangarhar, Kunar, and perhaps Nuristan as well. The status of the Taliban will also be discussed as well. Read more in “China, Pakistan, Russia to Meet on Afghanistan, Angering Kabul Leaders”, Voice of America, December 26, 2016.

(MY THOUGHTS) – Not much of a constructive nature is going to be coming out of this series of meetings. Russia seeks to continue the U.S. quagmire in Afghanistan, China is not opposed to the U.S. continuing difficulties (although from an economic perspective it probably would like more secure trade routes), and we all know that Pakistan likes the current situation exactly as it is.

Peace Talks Sabotaged by Pakistan. Mujib Mashal of the NYT has a piece describing the history of peaces talks with the Taliban. A senior Norwegian diplomat was at the center of the peace talks and he provides some behind the scenes details of the years-long effort.  “. . . Pakistan, in particular, has been a central obstacle to any negotiated peace with the Taliban”. See “How Peace Between Afghanistan and the Taliban Foundered”, The New York Times, December 26, 2016.

Disposing of Junk Military Vehicles of MoI / MoD. One huge problem that has yet to be fixed within the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) is the problem of junk, scrap, disabled, or destroyed vehicles. Many of these vehicles are still on the books sitting in the back of motor pools at the various echelons of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP). Fuel at one time (probably still is) was allocated based on the number of vehicles that are ‘operational’ on the books. If a vehicle is listed as non-FMC (not fully mission capable) or is turned in for repairs or disposal then the fuel allocation for the unit is reduced. If a unit declares 50% of its vehicles non-FMC then it loses 50% of its fuel allocation. One would argue that this impacts the units operational readiness. Yes, it does. But it also, more importantly from the Afghan commander’s point of view, impacts on how much of the fuel he can sell on the black market to pad his pockets with money. One program may help put a stop to the fuel corruption. Read “Demilitarization program re-quips Afghan Forces”, DVIDS, December 26, 2016.

Afghanistan Update 20161214 – Recent news, reports, analysis, commentary, papers and publications on security, legalizing opium in Afghanistan, Visas for Afghan interpreters, development, governance, Pakistan, Iran, Albanian armed forces, Dostum, corruption and more.

National Corruption Report 2016. Integrity Watch Afghanistan has released its annual corruption report. The report estimated that over $3 billion were paid in bribes in the last year. This is an almost 50% increase compared to 2014. “Following insecurity and unemployment, corruption is the biggest problem that the Afghans face. The survey also shows that corruption is having a negative effect on Afghanistan’s security.” Read National Corruption Survey 2016: Afghan Perceptions and Experiences of Corruption, December 8, 2016.

On Dealing with Corrupt Afghan Military and Police. Jason Dempsey served a few tours in Afghanistan and witnessed Afghan corruption in the army and police close up. He raises some interesting questions on what the U.S. military should do about this persistent issue that hampers the effectiveness of the Afghan security forces and reduces the legitimacy of the Afghan government. Read “Elephants in Afghanistan: The military’s counterinsurgency failure”, War on the Rocks, December 1, 2016.

Counter Pakistan by Getting Friendly with Iran? As most South Asian observers know Pakistan is deeply involved in the support of various terrorist and insurgent groups that operate in Afghanistan. One critic, Christine Fair, believes we should strengthen our ties with Iran to offset the influence of Pakistan. Read more in “U.S.-Afghan policy must be secure from Pakistan’s efforts to destabilize Kabul“, Business Standard, December 11, 2016.

New Pakistan Intel Chief. LtGen Naveed Mukhtar will be appointed as the new chief for Pakistan’s military spy agency – the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Mukhtar studied at the U.S. Army War College a few years back where he wrote a paper entitled Afghanistan – Alternative Futures and Their Implications (USAWC Class of 2011). Read more in “New ISI chief for ‘aggressive measures’ against India in Afghanistan”, HindustanTimes, Dec 13, 2016. Read also “Pakistan Gets a New Intelligence Chief”, The Diplomat, December 13, 2016.

First Vice President Dostum. Still out there on his own operating as a free radical! It appears that Dostum abducted and held hostage a local politician in northern Afghanistan for a few days because . . . well, I guess because he didn’t like him and he could. Read more in “Western governments call for investigation of Afghan vice president”, Reuters, December 13, 2016.

VISA Program for Afghan Interpreters. Congress passes a half-hearted effort to revive the Visa program for Afghan interpreters who served alongside U.S military members in Afghanistan. Read “Visa Program for Afghan Translators Is Renewed, With New Restrictions”, The New York Times, December 8, 2016.

Legalize Opium in Afghanistan? A professor of economics at the University of Tampa thinks the U.S. needs to have a change in policy in regards to stopping opium production in Afghanistan. Read “Want to Hurt the Taliban? Legalize Opium in Afghanistan”, Defense One, December 10, 2016.

1,000 Afghan Schools Closed. About 3.5 million children in Afghanistan are out of school – 75% of them girls – not just because of insecurity and violence but also because of social restrictions, early marriage, and a lack of female teachers. Read more in “1000 schools in Afghanistan closed as Taliban strike at education”, Their World, November 30, 2016.

Albanian Armed Forces Deploy to Herat. A contingent of infantry from the country of Albania is now in western Afghanistan under the command of the Italians at Train Advise Assist Command – West (TAAC-W). They will take part in the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) for the next six months. Read more in a news report dated 10 Dec 2016.